The run home
Why Friday night's result eases the heat on Geelong but might have torched Essendon's top-four hopes
Can't view the videos? Visit the NMFC YouTube channel
8. North Melbourne
36 points (nine wins, seven losses), 107.73 per cent
The run home:
Rd 18: Melbourne at Etihad Stadium
Rd 19: Western Bulldogs at Etihad Stadium
Rd 20: Essendon at Etihad Stadium
Rd 21: Collingwood at Etihad Stadium
Rd 22: Fremantle at Etihad Stadium
Rd 23: Greater Western Sydney at Skoda Stadium
Drew Petrie's final-term heroics handed their Roos their fifth win in six games since their bye, and the future looks rosy. Wins against the struggling Demons and Bulldogs would tighten their grip on eighth spot, while the round-22 clash against Fremantle shapes as a virtual elimination final. A final-round appointment with the Giants could yet prove pivotal with percentage in play.
1. Sydney Swans
52 points (13 wins, three losses), 147.38 per cent
The run home:
Rd 18: Gold Coast at Metricon Stadium
Rd 19: Carlton at Etihad Stadium
Rd 20: Collingwood at ANZ Stadium
Rd 21: Western Bulldogs at Etihad Stadium
Rd 22: Hawthorn at the SCG
Rd 23: Geelong at Simonds Stadium
Sunday's win against the Saints, while not as definitive as last week's demolition of the Eagles, edges the Swans ahead of the Crows at the top of the ladder. On current form, the Swans should finish in the top two - although there are still daunting tests to come. The Pies, Hawks and Cats are at the top of that list and those clashes are likely to provide an example of what we can expect from John Longmire's team in September. Much will depend on the severity of ruckman Shane Mumford's knee injury.
» Predict how the 2012 season will play out using the official AFL ladder predictor
2. Adelaide
52 points (13 wins, three losses) 133.79 per cent
The run home:
Rd 18: Geelong at Simonds Stadium
Rd 19: Essendon at AAMI Stadium
Rd 20: Fremantle at AAMI Stadium
Rd 21: Brisbane Lions at the Gabba
Rd 22: Melbourne at the MCG
Rd 23: Gold Coast at AAMI Stadium
The Crows are in a position to cement a top-two berth, but will first face one of footy's toughest tasks: a trip to the Cattery. Saturday's big win over the Eagles came at a cost, with Kurt Tippett suffering his third concussion in a matter of weeks. However, the Crows will welcome back Taylor Walker from suspension for their epic encounter in Geelong. Even if Adelaide loses, a top-four berth should remain within reach, with two games to come at home followed by a relatively breezy final three rounds.
3. Hawthorn
48 points (12 wins, four losses) 156.60 per cent
The run home:
Rd 18: Essendon at the MCG
Rd 19: Geelong at the MCG
Rd 20: Port Adelaide at Aurora Stadium
Rd 21: Gold Coast at the MCG
Rd 22: Sydney Swans at the SCG
Rd 23: West Coast at the MCG
By dismantling the Magpies, the Hawks stamped themselves as a genuine premiership fancy. Blockbuster games against Essendon and Geelong at the MCG in the next two Friday nights will be testing assignments, although captain Luke Hodge's possible inclusion could be a major fillip. The Hawks should beat Port and Gold Coast, and rounding out the season are clashes against the Swans and the Eagles with massive top-four implications. Their healthy percentage could be a decisive factor.
4. Collingwood
48 points (12 wins, four losses) 115.85 per cent
The run home:
Rd 18: Greater Western Sydney at Skoda Stadium
Rd 19: St Kilda at the MCG
Rd 20: Sydney Swans at ANZ Stadium
Rd 21: North Melbourne at Etihad Stadium
Rd 22: West Coast at Patersons Stadium
Rd 23: Essendon at the MCG
Stunned by Hawthorn, Collingwood is certain to bounce back in strong fashion against Greater Western Sydney. Nathan Buckley has demanded improved performances from his key position players. The Saints at the MCG and the Swans in Sydney will provide a renewed standard of competition in rounds 19 and 20. The Pies' last three rounds will be challenging with likely top-four placings on the line.
5. West Coast
44 points (11 wins, five losses) 124.83 per cent
The run home:?
Rd 18: Brisbane Lions at Patersons Stadium?
Rd 19: Fremantle at Patersons Stadium?
Rd 20: Geelong at Patersons Stadium?
Rd 21: Port Adelaide at AAMI Stadium
Rd 22: Collingwood at Patersons Stadium
Rd 23: Hawthorn at the MCG??
Didn't turn up to play against the Crows and suffered a second successive deflating loss. The Eagles are now on relatively shaky ground in fifth position, with Essendon and Geelong nipping at their heels. The Lions pinched the points when the teams met in round 10, although it's hard to see that happening in the west this week. Western derbies are rarely easily won, and the Eagles also face Geelong and Collingwood before flying to Melbourne for a last-round appointment with Hawthorn that should be a mouth-watering precursor to the finals.
6. Essendon
44 points (11 wins, five losses) 122.02 per cent
The run home:
Rd 18: Hawthorn at Etihad Stadium
Rd 19: Adelaide at AAMI Stadium
Rd 20: North Melbourne at Etihad Stadium
Rd 21: Carlton at the MCG
Rd 22: Richmond at the MCG
Rd 23: Collingwood at the MCG
All of a sudden Essendon is under the microscope after a demoralising loss to Geelong. With tough assignments against the Hawks and the Crows to come, things at Windy Hill are not as settled as they were a few weeks ago. and it's difficult to see the Dons finishing in the top four from here. Injuries have decimated the Bombers' best 22 and their final month is one of the toughest draws going around. Will need to address their inconsistent form, with the Cats, Freo and North all nipping at their heels.
7. Geelong
40 points (10 wins, six losses), 113.89 per cent
The run home:
Rd 18: Adelaide at Simonds Stadium
Rd 19: Hawthorn at the MCG
Rd 20: West Coast at Patersons Stadium
Rd 21: St Kilda at Etihad Stadium
Rd 22: Western Bulldogs at Etihad Stadium
Rd 23: Sydney Swans at Simonds Stadium
Brought the heat on Friday night against the Bombers and finally managed to address a recent trend of sluggish starts. The Cats are now well-placed to earn another finals campaign, but with enormous games against the Crows, Hawks and Eagles to come will need to replicate Friday's form. The clash against the Saints in round 21 could prove a classic eight-point game.
----------------------------------------
9. Fremantle
36 points (nine wins, seven losses) 105.06 per cent
The run home:
Rd 18: Port Adelaide at AAMI Stadium
Rd 19: West Coast at Patersons Stadium
Rd 20: Adelaide at AAMI Stadium
Rd 21: Richmond at Patersons Stadium
Rd 22: North Melbourne at Etihad Stadium
Rd 23: Melbourne at Patersons Stadium
Ross Lyon's men got what they were looking for against the Giants: a hefty percentage boost that puts them firmly in the hunt for eighth spot. Next up comes the first of three games that will probably decide Fremantle's season. Happily for Freo, their two trips to Adelaide and the western derby coincide with star Nat Fyfe's likely return. Lyon will hope a fit-again Fyfe will be the fillip required for his side to fire at full pace in time for a date with North Melbourne that shapes as critical.
10. St Kilda
32 points (eight wins, eight losses), 117.23 per cent
The run home:
Rd 18: Western Bulldogs at Etihad Stadium
Rd 19: Collingwood at the MCG
Rd 20: Melbourne at the MCG
Rd 21: Geelong at Etihad Stadium
Rd 22: Greater Western Sydney at Etihad Stadium
Rd 23: Carlton at Etihad Stadium
Mounted a considerable challenge against the Swans but could not deliver when it mattered most, despite Stephen Milne's best efforts. Now find themselves two games behind Geelong, in a pack stuck on 32 points. Games against the Pies in round 19 and the Cats in round 21 are key, before a potential mini-final against the Blues in round 23.
11. Carlton
32 points (eight wins, eight losses) 104.79 per cent
The run home:
Rd 18: Richmond at the MCG
Rd 19: Sydney Swans at Etihad Stadium
Rd 20: Brisbane Lions at Etihad Stadium
Rd 21: Essendon at the MCG
Rd 22: Gold Coast at Metricon Stadium
Rd 23: St Kilda at Etihad Stadium
Savaged by injury and suspensions, Carlton's lesser names stood up to steer their club past the Western Bulldogs. The Blues need to win at least three out of their next four to remain in contention, starting with Saturday night's blockbuster with Richmond. Perhaps the biggest question is how long they can keep plugging the holes left by their sidelined stars.
12. Richmond
28 points (seven wins, nine losses) 106.24 per cent
The run home:
Rd 18: Carlton at the MCG
Rd 19: Brisbane Lions at the Gabba
Rd 20: Western Bulldogs at the MCG
Rd 21: Fremantle at Paterson Stadium
Rd 22: Essendon at the MCG
Rd 23: Port Adelaide at the MCG
Tiger fans would have hoped for two wins in the past eight days, but their finals dreams have faded following a remarkable loss to the Suns and Sunday's thrilling defeat by North Melbourne. Saturday night's blockbuster against Carlton is now a must-win for both clubs. Essendon and Fremantle (in Perth) are Richmond's next two biggest hurdles.
13. Brisbane Lions
28 points (seven wins, nine losses), 93.44 per cent
The run home:
Rd 18: West Coast at Patersons Stadium
Rd 19: Richmond at the Gabba
Rd 20: Carlton at Etihad Stadium
Rd 21: Adelaide at the Gabba
Rd 22: Port Adelaide at AAMI Stadium
Rd 23: Western Bulldogs at the Gabba
At least 12 wins are likely to be required to play finals, which means the Lions would need to win five of their remaining six. Michael Voss' men will need things to go their way, but will be confident of pushing for a win in at least five games. West Coast in Perth is a daunting task and the Crows at home will be challenging. The trip south to play the Blues could be the clincher.
» Click here to view the interactive AFL ladder, which you can filter by recent form, interstate record, average margins and more.
Ben Guthrie is a reporter for AFL.com.au. Follow him on Twitter - @AFL_BenGuthrie
The views in this article are those of the author and not necessarily those of the AFL or its clubs.