We’ve all done the mental sums before. As a player lines up a shot on goal, we look at his spot relative to goal and try to work out the likelihood of them kicking truly.
Until now, there wasn’t a way to put the figure into a definite possibility, but Champion Data has taken the guesswork out of it.
Using data from 2012 and 2013, they’ve been able to find the exact chance of converting from any spot within 60 metres of goal. The following chart is based on a right-footed player, with the numbers reversed for a left-footer.
By digging deeper, we can find how North fared in front of goal during 2013. Considering it ranked third for points scored, there were plenty of opportunities to make a mark on the scoring chart.
As the comparison between the AFL and North shows, the Kangaroos were quite strong between 30-50 metres out, close to the respective boundary lines.
The biggest difference was in the range of 30 to 40 metres out on the left side of the ground. North’s 72.2 per cent was far and away above the AFL number of 42 per cent.
The natural assumption would be for the Kangaroos to move back to the pack in 2014, but when you consider the firepower at the disposal of Brad Scott and the match committee.
Moving into the defensive half, the comparison between the AFL and what North conceded also throws up some interesting numbers.
Despite the commonly held view of North’s defence being a potential area of improvement, the reality is the Roos ranked eighth in points against during the 2013 season and only minor tweaks are needed. Brad Scott suggested as much in an interview with Channel 9 in January.
“We’re not going to change drastically the way we play, what we’ve got to do is execute the way we want to play better,” he said.
There are 21 locations on the Champion Data map for goal probability. In 2013, North Melbourne held its opponents to below the AFL average in 13 of those.
The potential for improvement is also clear from the comparison. From the left side of the ground – coincidentally the same areas North excelled in going forward – opponents converted at 70.6 per cent between 30-40 metres out. It is an astronomical figure; in line with the aforementioned 72.2 per cent North managed itself.
By looking at how well North does itself from that area, perhaps there is a clue in restricting opponents.
