Follow Scott on Twitter: @ScottyBarby
Topics
- Winning the contested ball
- Limiting turnovers
- The ruck battle
- Forward line efficiency
- Who will win and why
Round 1 of the 2014 season will see Essendon and North embracing the theme of redemption for vastly different reasons. For the Bombers it was a 2013 to forget with off field turmoil taking centre stage while the Kangaroos’ issues remained strictly on field with six losses by single digits.
Eradicating the late game fadeouts would become an offseason priority for the Roos. The addition of well-regarded defensive coach Leigh Tudor headlining a summer of exciting acquisitions. Player personnel would also receive a boost in the form of classy midfielder Nick Dal Santo and highly touted father son selection Luke McDonald. The Kangaroos topped up on their small forward stocks with Robbie Nahas joining the club from Richmond.
For Essendon it would be an offseason of musical chairs with Mark Thompson taking the reins and the experienced Paul Chapman trading in his blue hoops for the red sash.
Both sides had hiccups in the preseason with sketchy form and injuries to key players the primary concerns. Tom Bellchambers, Michael Hibberd, Courtney Dempsey and Jason Winderlich are all best twenty-two commodities fighting to get back on the park. North’s Robbie Tarrant is sidelined with a tibia injury and skipper Andrew Swallow is still a few months away.
After finishing 2013 ranked fifth for time in front percentage and possessing a list on the cusp of entering its prime, expectations are high for the Kangaroos. When coupled with the mystery and intrigue that surrounds current day Essendon, this Friday night makes for one of the most eagerly anticipated openers in recent memory.
Key Areas
Although Essendon and North have been tinkering with setups, the hallmarks of each team’s 2013 game plans remain firmly in place. The sides love to travel by foot, ranking among the top five for kick to handball ratio with a specific focus on hitting up short targets. The primary difference between them is the pace at which they go about moving the ball.
Essendon led the competition for mark/play-on percentage. It loves to move the ball as quickly as possible under a play on at all costs mantra. North lives at the opposite end of the spectrum ranking seventeenth for mark/play-on percentage, preferring to embrace a more methodical approach.
It makes for an intriguing arm wrestle with both intent on dominating the ball. This means winning first use and limiting turnovers is critical; the latter areas seeing both sides excelling as opposites, the Kangaroos as stoppage kings whilst Essendon sport the crown as counter attack specialists.
| Team | Mark Play On % | % of disposals uncontested | % of disposals contested | Clearances |
| Essendon | 1st | 1st | 18th | 11th |
| North | 17th | 2nd | 17th | 1st |
Contested Ball
The Kangaroos live and die by their work at the coalface and through the corridor. From a midfield perspective, few units were as impressive as North at generating scores last season with the side ranking fourth in the competition for points from stoppages and fifth for fewest points conceded behind Geelong, Fremantle, Sydney and Richmond.
This was a far cry from the Bombers who ranked sixteenth for points from stoppages and fourteenth defensively ahead of only Brisbane, the Bulldogs, GWS and Melbourne. For the Kangaroos to win on Friday night, they need to press their advantage at stoppages behind Todd Goldstein, who was second in the AFL for hit-outs to advantage, and prolific extractors Ben Cunnington, who ranked third for clearances per game, and Jack Ziebell, who ranked second for centre clearances per game.
| Team | Points from stoppages differential | Points via corridor differential |
| Essendon | -200 | +71 |
| North | +238 | +300 |
Limiting Turnovers
2013 unleashed a new wave of transition football that saw counter-attacking come to the fore as an exciting and lethal weapon; an area the Bombers excelled. Sides that lacked the skills and polish to navigate Essendon’s defensive setup were often dealt a harsh lesson with the Bombers ranking behind only Geelong for points generated from turnovers.
Despite possessing the league’s best strike-rate for points from turnovers, North failed to take advantage forcing a league low turnovers by foot. Unfortunately it would become a sore point as it finished the year with GWS and St. Kilda as one of only three sides with a differential in turnover kicks greater than fifty.
| Team | Turnover Kicks | Turnover Handballs | Differential | Points from turnovers |
| Essendon | -18 | -13 | -31 | +336 |
| North | +53 | -5 | +48 | +179 |
The Kangaroos close losses are well documented and their differentials in losses are quite remarkable, ranking number one in the AFL for positive differential in short kicks, effective kicks, total disposals, disposal efficiency, marks, uncontested marks, uncontested possession, clearances and goal scoring efficiency. It was a year that on raw data alone, screamed ‘finals football’ but there was one category that brought all the good work undone; owning the highest turnover differential in losses.
Essendon can turn a game on its head with a series of quick fire flurries if the opposition doesn’t protect the football. North’s usage and spread must be at its best. The organic growth of numerous young midfielders and addition of clinical users by foot like Dal Santo definitely aids the cause.
The ruck battle
We briefly touched on the value of clearances for the Kangaroos and the performance of Goldstein is one of the major factors. With Bellchambers absent through injury, Patrick Ryder will shoulder the bulk of the responsibility for the Bombers. In 2013 the Bellchambers/Ryder combination took part in 1755 ruck contests with Ryder involved in 53% compared to Bellchambers at 46%. It was a dream setup which kept both fresh when on duty in the middle and dangerous when resting forward with the duo producing 38 goals.
With Bellchambers missing and Joe Daniher assuming the relief ruck role, logic suggests the seasoned Goldstein, who on his lonesome last season attended 1699 ruck contests, should be better suited to the heavier workload, and the numbers back up those claims.
Despite owning a league leading hit-out success percentage at centre bounces, the Bombers failed to translate their dominance to the scoreboard ranking a wasteful fifteenth for goals produced from centre bounces compared to North which placed second in both areas. It becomes evident that Ryder excels at centre bounces where he can greater utilise his athletic ability, whilst Goldstein is just as effective in the middle but much more productive at stoppages around the ground.
Hit-out success percentage
| Essendon | Centre Bounce % | Throw in % | Ball up % | Strike Rate Score % |
| Ranking | 1st | 17th | 14th | 14th |
| Goals | 15th | 18th | 16th | 17th |
| North | Centre Bounce % | Throw in % | Ball up % | Strike Rate Score % |
| Ranking | 2nd | 7th | 3rd | 4th |
| Goals | 2nd | 6th | 5th | 3rd |
We know the Bombers primary source of scoring is through producing turnovers but with an athlete of Ryder’s elite capabilities who ranks fourth for hitouts to advantage, combined with a Brownlow Medal winning extractor in Jobe Watson and classy midfield support consisting of Brendon Goddard, Brent Stanton, Dyson Heppell and David Zaharakis, you’d expect more bang for your buck than a -200 point scoring differential at stoppages.
Essendon’s main issue is pretty cut and dry. When they’re monstered at the stoppages and starved of possession their performance sours.
| Essendon | Points from stoppages differential | Points from turnovers differential |
| Wins | +7 | +473 |
| Losses | -209 | -140 |
The equation is quite simple, if North can limit turnovers and press the advantage at stoppages, which was its area of strength throughout season 2013, it will be as good as home.
Forward Line Efficiency
The primary talking point surrounding the Bombers from an on-field perspective all summer, has been their forward line setup. Last year Essendon recorded the third most inside fifties of any side yet struggled to find targets, ranking eleventh for marks inside fifty and fifteenth for scoring efficiency.
More than half of the Bombers targets inside fifty in 2013 consisted of Michael Hurley, Stewart Crameri, Alwyn Davey, Tom Bellchambers and Scott Gumbleton. It’s clear that Hurley is best suited to a spot in defence, whilst Crameri, Davey and Gumbleton are no longer at the club, and Bellchambers will be absent due to off season ankle surgery.
It leaves coach Mark Thompson no option but to get creative. New recruit Paul Chapman will fit in seamlessly, floating between the forward line and midfield, but outside of banking on Chapman’s veteran nous, it’s largely guesswork. Full back Jake Carlisle has been bookmarked for a switch to the forward line after impressing as a swing man last season and young gun Joe Daniher, although raw, has shown all the attributes of a star in the making. But if the preseason eye test and output is anything to go by, the Bombers are going to need more time to settle on their most lucrative forward line setup.
As far as the midfield was concerned this preseason, the Bombers key indicators were all virtually identical to last year. Forwards being starved of opportunity wasn’t an issue; it was the lack of lead up targets and dysfunctional makeup that presented problems. Across the preseason Essendon produced the fourth most inside fifties by foot of any club (137) yet ranked dead last for mark percentage (10.2%) and last for goal scoring efficiency (12.4%). During season 2013, the talented midfield trio of Brent Stanton, David Zaharakis and Jobe Watson combined for 232 entries by foot resulting in a retention rate of 49.56%. During preseason it dropped to 11.42% (35 entries).
Defensively the Bombers back six is quite settled but had issues especially when restricting opposition space. In 2013 Essendon conceded the sixth most scores from marks ahead of only Gold Coast, St. Kilda, Western Bulldogs, Melbourne and GWS, and allowed the seventh highest percentage of disposals inside forward fifty which was ahead of only non-finalists West Coast, Adelaide, St. Kilda, Brisbane, GWS and Melbourne. This becomes quite alarming given North’s Lindsay Thomas and Drew Petrie combined for 101 goals last season, with key forwards Petrie and Aaron Black ranking inside the competitions top ten for marks on the lead.
As for the Kangaroos last season, they ranked inside the top ten defensively for restricting inside fifties, marks inside fifty, scores from marks and scoring efficiency. Scotty Thompson and Lachlan Hansen were excellent at cutting off opposition entries combining for 83 intercept marks (48 contested) whilst Nathan Grima led the way negating key forwards finishing with 96 spoils at 75% effectiveness.
From an offensive standpoint, North ranked a mediocre tenth for inside fifties yet made the most of its opportunities, ranked as the third most efficient scoring side in the competition.
When it comes to forward lines, what we have is two teams running as polar opposites. Essendon which fails to capitalize on its midfield’s exceptional work and North, which is lethal once the goals are in sight, ranking number one in the AFL for goal accuracy. That came about thanks largely in part to veteran Brent Harvey who led the AFL in score assists per game and kicks inside fifty resulting in a mark (five more than the next ranked player Chad Wingard).
Who will win and why
The Kangaroos recipe for four points appears pretty easy to me; win the battle at the coalface. North has the superior around the ground ruckman purely from a score generating perspective and it had the number three clearance unit in the competition last season and produced the fourth most scores from stoppages of any side.
Reduce turnovers - the primary concern for the Kangaroos. North conceded the eighth most points from turnovers last season whilst Essendon scored the second most in the competition. Few sides are more prepared to punish mistakes than the Bombers and we documented how turnovers resulted in losses for the Kangaroos with their turnover differential in losses the highest of any side. Essendon’s Cale Hooker led the competition for intercept marks with Jake Carlisle also ranking inside the top ten. Engaging both at every opportunity and making them accountable when venturing inside fifty is essential with Essendon so dangerous in transition.
Maintain poise - The Kangaroos had the competition’s number one kicking efficiency in season 2013, ranked third overall for effective kicks and were number one for time in possession. They’re sufficiently drilled at playing ‘keepings off’ for an extended period so holding off from the long bomb or trap kick will be crucial.
As for restricting possession, this is how both sides ranked limiting their opponents last season. The Kangaroos are more than equipped for success in this area.
| Team | Kicks | Short Kicks | Effective Kicks | Kicking Efficiency | Uncontested disposals | Uncontested marks |
| Essendon | 15th | 14th | 14th | 8th | 11th | 14th |
| North | 1st | 1st | 1st | 10th | 1st | 1st |
This outcome will be heavily dictated by which midfield can get on top and in the process, negate the opponents strength but Essendon being efficient inside fifty is the other deciding issue in play.
With the Kangaroos, we can bank on supply being rewarded but with Essendon it’s not a question of supply but return. Will the midfield kick a large enough score on its own, or will one of the key forwards stand up?
Is Joe Daniher ready?
Is Jake Carlisle really at home as a lead up target inside fifty? Carlisle’s five pre-season goals solely from general play may leave you with doubt, but in saying that, it could all come together in a special night for Essendon as Dustin Fletcher breaks the club’s games record.
North hasn’t started with a win since 2008 so there’s every reason to be switched on. With the ambition of finals football in such an even competition, flipping the slow start narrative and jumping out of the gates is vital. If the supply is frequent enough, the dividends promise to be fruitful for the Kangaroos, but we cannot say the same about Essendon which possesses far more mystery.
Tip: North Melbourne by 15-points
