In their qualifying finals loss to Hawthorn, the Cats’ score of 68 proved crippling to their chances of a home preliminary final; much the same as their effort of 71 against the Hawks in Round 22 eliminating any hope of a minor premiership.
Twice in three weeks Geelong has been unable to hit the scoreboard against the Hawks’ defence – an area which hasn’t been a problem in two outings against North.
In both Round 10 and 19, Geelong put 111 points on the board and was able to kick goals at crucial times. It begs the question – how has Hawthorn been able to restrict Geelong’s scoring, and how is it relevant to North?
The majority of scores during a game come from two areas – clearances and turnovers. Geelong’s games against the Hawks have been more focused around stoppages, while the Kangaroos encounters have been more free-flowing.
Usually there are many more turnovers in a game than clearances, which goes part of the way to explaining the scoring disparity.
Scores from stoppages
In Geelong’s two games against Hawthorn, there has been an average of 75.5 clearances per game. However, in the meetings against North Melbourne, the number dips to 63.
The added clearances in games against the Hawks have come from larger numbers of players around the ball. Therefore, it makes it tough to clear with clean possession, due to the pressure which comes from such numbers.
The end result is that while Geelong has had multiple opportunities to score from clearances, such an act has been tough to accomplish.
Against North, the games have been more open. The flow on effect from that is it becomes easier for both sides to clear effectively and then build to an opportunity in attack. The comparison in scoring reflects the difference between the Cats’ games against the Kangaroos and Hawks.
| 2014 season meetings | Total clearances | Total points from clearances | Points per 100 clearances |
| Geelong v Hawthorn (R22, QF) | 80 | 48 | 60 |
| Geelong v NMFC (R10, 19) | 57 | 53 | 93 |
As the table shows, the extra numbers around the ball in games against Hawthorn have prevented clearances being a weapon for Chris Scott’s team.
Scores from turnovers
The total points from clearance numbers are also linked to scoring from turnovers. It’s no surprise that the two recent games against Hawthorn have seen Geelong struggle to score at its normal high rate after forcing turnovers.
With more numbers around the ball than normal, it has been tougher for the Cats to break at pace and carry the ball to score; players can only run so fast compared to the Sherrin being kicked 50+ metres.
However, in its two games against the Kangaroos there has been no such problem. With space being readily available due to the open nature of the game, players have been set up outside the stoppages in threatening positions. Scores from turnovers was the huge difference in Rounds 10 and 19.
| 2014 season meetings | Total turnovers forced | Total points from turnovers | Points per 100 turnovers |
| Geelong v Hawthorn (R22, QF) | 113 | 70 | 61.9 |
| Geelong v NMFC (R10, 19) | 133 | 168 | 126.3 |
Making Friday night’s semi-final a tight battle focused around the contest could favour North. It ranks sixth in contested possession differential for the season at +77, compared to Geelong at 13th with -54.
The Kangaroos have preyed on opposition errors, ranking fifth in scores from turnovers differential at +219. The team directly below it is Geelong, sixth with +204.
Whichever way both teams decide to play on Friday night, it shapes as a fascinating battle.
