The run home
Saturday's win over the Bulldogs keeps the Kangaroos in pole to secure one of the last two spots in the eight.
7. North Melbourne
44 points (11 wins, seven losses), 113.31 per cent
The run home:
Rd 20: Essendon at Etihad Stadium
Rd 21: Collingwood at Etihad Stadium
Rd 22: Fremantle at Etihad Stadium
Rd 23: Greater Western Sydney at Skoda Stadium
The Roos didn't have it all their own way against the Dogs, although they finished the game in a style that suggests they will stay the course and play finals. Essendon and Fremantle are both level on points with the Kangas. That sets up two mouth-watering clashes, with the results in rounds 20 and 22 likely to decide the make-up of the eight.
1. Sydney Swans
60 points (15 wins, three losses), 150.16 per cent
The run home:
Rd 20: Collingwood at ANZ Stadium
Rd 21: Western Bulldogs at Etihad Stadium
Rd 22: Hawthorn at the SCG
Rd 23: Geelong at Simonds Stadium
A top-four finish is all but certain, but the Swans face a battle to finish top-two and secure a home qualifying final. Sunday's statement against the Blues preserves a one-game gap over Collingwood, and the Swans get the chance next Saturday night to exorcise their demons against their bogey side, who they have lost to in the past 10 attempts. Two tough games close out the season.
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2. Adelaide?
56 points (14 wins, four losses) 127.73 per cent? ?
The run home:?
Rd 20: Fremantle at AAMI Stadium
Rd 21: Brisbane Lions at the Gabba?
Rd 22: Melbourne at the MCG?
Rd 23: Gold Coast at AAMI Stadium? ?
A home game against Fremantle followed by games against three of the bottom six sides makes Adelaide a monty for a top-two berth. Taylor Walker's return to form makes the Crows a menacing proposition, while Kurt Tippett could yet play an important role in their September campaign.
3. Collingwood
56 points (14 wins, four losses) 122.86 per cent
The run home:
Rd 20: Sydney Swans at ANZ Stadium
Rd 21: North Melbourne at Etihad Stadium
Rd 22: West Coast at Patersons Stadium
Rd 23: Essendon at the MCG
Having survived a desperate fightback from St Kilda on Saturday night, the Pies will want to secure their top-four status sooner rather than later. That will start with a key duel with the Swans away from home before a critical round-22 trip to play West Coast. The Pies have a two-game break on the fifth-placed Eagles, but could still slip to fifth if they lose two out of their last four. Look to Andrew Krakouer, who returned in the VFL this weekend, for a finals wildcard.
4. Hawthorn
52 points (13 wins, five losses) 154.94 per cent
The run home:
Rd 20: Port Adelaide at Aurora Stadium
Rd 21: Gold Coast at the MCG
Rd 22: Sydney Swans at the SCG
Rd 23: West Coast at the MCG
The most precariously placed of the top four thanks to the continuation of their nine-game losing streak against the Cats in Friday night's epic. The Hawks' final month can be split in two. The Power and the Suns should be straightforward, but then come two extremely tough battles with the Swans and Eagles. Those games will determine the top four positions and possibly even the minor premiership. Lance Franklin's return will be a major boost.
5. West Coast
48 points (12 wins, six losses) 123.89 per cent
The run home:
Rd 20: Geelong at Patersons Stadium
Rd 21: Port Adelaide at AAMI Stadium
Rd 22: Collingwood at Patersons Stadium
Rd 23: Hawthorn at the MCG
Saturday's derby defeat hammered the Eagles' percentage and confidence, and leaves them two games behind Collingwood in the race for the top four. The tasks don't get any easier for the Eagles, with the Cats, Pies and Hawks bookmarking their final month. Injuries are beginning to reveal some noticeable cracks in a side that will probably need to win all its games to retain a hope of the double chance.
6. Geelong
48 points (12 wins, six losses), 114.05 per cent
The run home:
Rd 20: West Coast at Patersons Stadium
Rd 21: St Kilda at Etihad Stadium
Rd 22: Western Bulldogs at Etihad Stadium
Rd 23: Sydney Swans at Simonds Stadium
While the top four is probably out of reach, the reigning premiers are in rare form and well positioned to earn a home elimination final. Friday night's game in Perth is the proverbial eight-pointer, with the winner to go a game clear in fifth spot. Appointments with the Saints and the Dogs should allow the Cats much-needed breathing space.
8. Essendon
44 points (11 wins, seven losses) 112.16 per cent
The run home:
Rd 20: North Melbourne at Etihad Stadium
Rd 21: Carlton at the MCG
Rd 22: Richmond at the MCG
Rd 23: Collingwood at the MCG
Soft tissue injuries continue to mount, and despite a defiant effort against Adelaide on Sunday, the Dons now find themselves clinging to eighth spot only by percentage. This week's clash against North Melbourne is massive, with a spot in the top eight on the line. Win that and the Bombers can at least approach a tough run of three closing blockbusters with some confidence.
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9. Fremantle
44 points (11 wins, seven losses) 111.37 per cent
The run home:
Rd 20: Adelaide at AAMI Stadium
Rd 21: Richmond at Patersons Stadium
Rd 22: North Melbourne at Etihad Stadium
Rd 23: Melbourne at Patersons Stadium
Powered by skipper Matthew Pavlich's eight-goal haul against the Eagles, Fremantle has charged to within striking distance of the top eight. Freo may struggle to back up next week against Adelaide, but should take care of the Tigers (round 21) and the Demons (round 23) on home soil. That leaves the round-22 meeting with North Melbourne that could be played as a virtual elimination final.
10. St Kilda
36 points (nine wins, nine losses), 120.23 per cent
The run home:
Rd 20: Melbourne at the MCG
Rd 21: Geelong at Etihad Stadium
Rd 22: Greater Western Sydney at Etihad Stadium
Rd 23: Carlton at Etihad Stadium
Despite pushing Collingwood to the death on Saturday night, the Saints' hopes of making the top eight are now out of their hands. It goes without saying they will need to win all of their remaining games, while relying on two of Essendon, North Melbourne and Fremantle to lose at least twice. The round 21 clash against Geelong could be the club's last gasp.
11. Carlton
36 points (nine wins, nine losses) 103.09 per cent
The run home:
Rd 20: Brisbane Lions at Etihad Stadium
Rd 21: Essendon at the MCG
Rd 22: Gold Coast at Metricon Stadium
Rd 23: St Kilda at Etihad Stadium
Ran out of legs against the Swans and are now similarly placed to the Saints; two games outside the eight. Unfortunately, the Blues have a much worse percentage, and will now need a catastrophic loss of form from the teams above them to reach the finals. Still, they face no opponent higher on the ladder than eighth, are regaining injured players, and the round-21 game against old foe Essendon is unlikely to disappoint.
12. Richmond
32 points (eight wins, 10 losses) 108.28 per cent
The run home:
Rd 20: Western Bulldogs at the MCG
Rd 21: Fremantle at Patersons Stadium
Rd 22: Essendon at the MCG
Rd 23: Port Adelaide at the MCG
Yes, Richmond can still make the finals. Having ended a horror three-game losing streak with victory over the Brisbane Lions, the Tigers could theoretically sneak into eighth place. However, that would require an unbeaten finish to the season combined with a perfect storm of results elsewhere, including Fremantle losing to Melbourne, and either the Lions or Gold Coast defeating Carlton. Even the most one-eyed Tiger fan knows it's not going to happen.
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