The race for the Coleman
Just one game remains, and only 7 goals separate the top seven players in the Coleman Medal race.
Who will be the league’s leading goal-kicker for 2012? kangaroos.com.au looks at each forward’s prospects heading into Round 23, including our own Drew Petrie.
Who do you think will win the Coleman Medal? Have your say below.
Matthew Pavlich - 60 goals (3.0 a game)
Last five: 22 goals (4.4 a game)
Round 23 opponent: Melbourne at Patersons Stadium
Last time: 4 goals (Round 16, 2012)
Career v opponent: 20 games, 41 goals (2.05 a game)
Still no certainty to return according to Dockers’ coach Ross Lyon, Pavlich was a late withdrawal against North Melbourne.
If he does play, the Fremantle captain would be expected to be among the goals. He kicked 4 when the teams last met in Round 16 and has kicked a remarkable 49 goals in 11 games since Round 10.
Jack Riewoldt - 59 goals (2.8 a game)
Last five: 12 goals (2.4 a game)
Round 23 opponent: Port Adelaide at the MCG
Last time: 4 goals (Round 6, 2012)
Career v opponent: 6 games, 18 goals (3.0 a game)
Riewoldt has been ultra-consistent in front of the big sticks in 2012. He’s kicked goals in 19 of 21 games, but hasn’t kicked a bag of more than 5 since Round 10.
Despite winning just five games for the season, the Power have rarely conceded big hauls to individual key-forwards.
Tom Hawkins - 58 goals (2.9 a game)
Last five: 20 goals (4.0 a game)
Round 23 opponent: Sydney at Simonds Stadium
Last time: 1 goal (Round 13, 2012)
Career v opponent: 7 games, 6 goals (0.85 a game)
One of the best forwards in the competition, Hawkins has kicked 3 or more goals in his last five full matches (concussed against West Coast in Round 20), and after a mid-season lull, is in arguably the best form of his career.
Despite that, his recent record against the Swans is nothing to write home about. He’s kicked 1 goal in his last three outings and is likely to get one of the league’s best key-defenders Ted Richards, which could make it even more difficult.
Lance Franklin - 55 goals (3.7 a game)
Last five: 21 goals (4.2 a game)
Round 23 opponent: West Coast at the MCG
Last time: 1 goal (Round 4, 2012)
Career v opponent: 10 games, 25 goals (2.5 a game)
Franklin boasts the best goal average in the league and hasn’t kicked below 4 goals in his last 6 matches.
He only kicked 1 goal when the teams last met in Round 4 on a difficult night for forwards, so can be forgiven, but with only one game under his belt coming back from a hamstring injury, he might still be a couple of weeks from his best and bridging a 5 goal gap will be tough.
Drew Petrie - 55 goals (2.6 a game)
Last five: 12 goals (2.4 a game)
Round 23 opponent: Greater Western Sydney at Skoda Stadium
Last time: 2 goals (Round 2, 2012)
Career v opponent: 1 game, 2 goals (2.0 a game)
Petrie was the form forward of the competition a month ago, but has been quieter in the last three weeks and held goalless twice.
Having said that, he could cause plenty of problems for the Giants’ defence, particularly if Lachie Hansen and Robbie Tarrant can take some of the focus off him.
With that in mind, the biggest individual bag against GWS this year is 7, so big scores don’t necessarily mean big days for the key forwards.
Stephen Milne - 55 goals (2.6 a game)
Last five: 15 goals (3.0 a game)
Round 23 opponent: Carlton at Etihad Stadium
Last time: 4 goals (Round 7, 2012)
Career v opponent: 16 games, 47 goals (2.93 a game)
Milne’s consistency is highlighted by the fact he’s kicked at least a goal in his last 32 games.
Interestingly, his career average against Carlton is better than any other team, and he booted 4 in the Round 7 win.
Trailing by 5 goals to Pavlich, it’s worth nothing his last haul above that mark was in Round 18 last year.
Taylor Walker - 53 goals (3.3 a game)
Last five: 16 goals (3.2 a game)
Round 23 opponent: Gold Coast at AAMI Stadium
Last time: 5 goals (Round 1, 2012)
Career v opponent: 3 games, 6 goals (2.0 a game)
Second only to Lance Franklin for goal average (3.3), Walker has been particularly consistent in the last month with 4 goals in each of his last four outings.
He’s 7 behind Pavlich though, and given his career best is 6 earlier this season, he’ll need to play out of his skin to bridge the gap.