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The Kangaroos sit 12th on the ladder with nine rounds to play and many have written off their chances of playing finals. However after a confidence boosting win against GWS and a month of winnable games to come, the season is anything but cooked for North.
If the club is to get back on track, priority number one is a win over finals-bound Richmond this weekend.
The teams have played in nail-biting finishes over the past two years and despite sitting at opposite ends of the ladder, North and Richmond have a very similar makeup; so similar in fact, last week they sent out teams with identical average ages.
The harmony doesn’t stop there with similar game styles and close statistical indicators. They rank fifth and sixth for points scored, third and fourth for time in front percentage, seven and eighth for time in forward half and fifth and sixth for points via the corridor. That’s just a few examples – the list could go on.
Key Indicators
Richmond and North rely on their foot skills more than most - Fremantle is the only team in the competition with a higher kick-to-handball ratio. Both sides implement a heavily uncontested, disposal dependent game plan with the safety of finding a target always the priority. This sees the Tigers and Roos ranking inside the top six for uncontested possession, short kicks, total kicks, kicking efficiency and marks. The only major difference is Richmond’s ability to limit their turnovers by foot.
Finding space and locating targets is the feature of each sides operation. When that space is taken away and the game morphs into a contested battle it’s more than just the scoreboard which turns ugly.
When it comes to losses, the Kangaroos aren’t being dominated in any one particular area and their average losing margin is just fourteen points.
They simply find their output restricted to a more even playing field with the primary difference being a spike in turnovers by foot and decrease in efficiency up forward.
| North in wins | Effective kicks | Turnover kicks | Marks | Uncontested possessions | Contested possessions | Inside 50's | Marks inside 50 | Scoring efficiency |
| North | 155.4 | 14.8 | 108 | 232.2 | 145.2 | 56 | 17.2 | 61.4% |
| Opponent | 118 | 14.4 | 78 | 188.8 | 119.6 | 38.6 | 8.2 | 47.2% |
| Differential | +37.4 | +0.4 | +30 | +43.4 | +25.6 | +17.4 | +9 | +14.3% |
| North in losses | Effective kicks | Turnover kicks | Marks | Uncontested possessions | Contested possessions | Inside 50's | Marks inside 50 | Scoring efficiency |
| North | 137.9 | 19.4 | 85.9 | 193.5 | 141 | 48.1 | 8.6 | 45.5% |
| Opponent | 128.4 | 13.9 | 80.5 | 196.5 | 146.2 | 55.5 | 12.6 | 50.2% |
| Differential | +9.5 | +5.5 | +5.4 | -3 | -5.2 | -7.4 | -4 | -4.8% |
As for the Tigers, it doesn’t come more black and white (or yellow) than a complete reversal of output. This is what occurs in the indicators which most accurately represent a Richmond win or loss, with uncontested possession the only area which remained remotely consistent. Whichever side can starve the other of quality possession will no doubt be well on the way to a win.
| Richmond in wins | Short kicks | Effective kicks | Turnover kicks | Kicking efficiency | Marks | Uncontested possessions |
| Richmond | 93.8 | 153.2 | 14.3 | 67.2% | 105.9 | 224.3 |
| Opponent | 66.4 | 119.3 | 18.9 | 63.7% | 79.8 | 195.4 |
| Differential | +27.4 | +33.9 | -4.6 | +3.5% | +26.1 | +28.9 |
| Richmond in losses | Short kicks | Effective kicks | Turnover kicks | Kicking efficiency | Marks | Uncontested possessions |
| Richmond | 75.2 | 128 | 19.5 | 63.7% | 85 | 212.5 |
| Opponent | 106,2 | 160 | 16 | 68.8% | 117 | 237 |
| Differential | -31 | -32 | +3.5 | -5.1% | -32 | -24.5 |
This data represents a direct switch in performance from Richmond and the same can be said when the Tigers move forward. Opportunities dry up, fewer targets are located and scoring efficiency dips.
| Richmond in wins | Inside 50's | Marks inside 50 | Scoring efficiency |
| Richmond | 57 | 14.9 | 54.2% |
| Opponent | 44.9 | 10.6 | 47.3% |
| Differential | +12.1 | +4.3 | +6.9% |
| Richmond in losses | Inside 50's | Marks inside 50 | Scoring efficiency |
| Richmond | 44.5 | 10.8 | 46.6% |
| Opponent | 55.5 | 13 | 50% |
| Differential | -11 | -2.2 | -3.4% |
A Deeper Look
To take it a step further, let’s take a look at where clubs that faced Richmond currently rank in the above areas of importance. What we find is a correlation between teams who had success against Richmond and teams who are excellent at applying pressure, limiting possession and restricting space.
It’s also a blueprint which can be utilised for the Kangaroos given they have also lost to three of the four teams in the sample size in Collingwood, Geelong and Fremantle.
The team rankings in each of the statistical categories listed is aggregated and separated by wins and losses in order to limit the sheer wealth of information. North and Richmond are represented in bold for comparison and as you can see, the Kangaroos’ output fits the model of success in all but one area, ability to force turnovers by foot.
What’s discouraging here is every team inside the top eight currently ranks one-through-eight for turnover kick differentials whilst the Kangaroos are ranked dead last. The Roos have been showering opponents in gifts whilst receiving a lump of coal in return and that has to stop, especially against Richmond who has experienced the fourth largest disparity in the AFL to date.
When you weigh up the aggregated data, the Tigers have essentially lost to sides who on average, out perform their direct opponent in the below categories, whilst they’ve literally smashed sides who rank below them. The only team that Richmond defeated who came remotely close to be respectable in these key areas was Carlton but even the Blues were far from par.
Many will ask, ‘why did North lose to sides they outperform in these areas?’
Unfortunately North’s woes this season revolve around late game fatigue, goals after sirens and wet conditions that throw foot skills out the window. They sound like excuses but the Kangaroos are not a bad football team, just one absent of good fortune. The results here indicate North has a very good chance at victory this weekend, especially if they commit fewer turnovers.
Richmond: Opponent Aggregate Ranking Differentials
| Result | Short kicks | Effective kicks | Turnover kicks | Kicking efficiency | Kicks |
| Wins | 13.1 | 12.3 | 7.5 | 11.5 | 10.1 |
| Losses | 4 | 4.7 | 12.8 | 4 | 5.5 |
| North | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
| Richmond | 6 | 4 | 15 | 8 | 3 |
| Result | Uncontested marks | Uncontested possession | Inside 50's | Scores from turnovers | Pressure rating |
| Wins | 12.7 | 12 | 11.3 | 11.1 | 11.7 |
| Losses | 3.6 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 3.7 | 2.7 |
| North | 3 | 6 | 9 | 9 | 7 |
| Richmond | 6 | 7 | 7 | 12 | 17 |
North Melbourne Score Sources
The Kangaroos have no trouble putting points on the board, ranking inside the competition’s top five for both scores from stoppages and scores from turnovers. The primary issue for North is centred on its lack of resistance when it comes to limiting opposition scores via turnovers. You’ll notice a common theme appearing in this analysis which centres around “turnovers”.
These turnovers have essentially hijacked the season. North has allowed the seventh most opponent scores via turnovers in the competition and the seventh most opponent scores via the corridor which makes for a bad mix. The easiest way to put points on the scoreboard is via turnovers as play opens up and defences are often left at sea, whilst the quickest way to score is via the corridor. Combine the two and it becomes quite obvious why the Kangaroos have given up at least 90-points to their opponents in six of their eight losses.
Protecting the corridor will need to be a main focus against the Tigers as they have one of the most potent transition games in football with Brett Deledio and Bachar Houli leading the charge off half-back.
North is also one of only two sides to allow more than 100-points from kick-ins this season with the other being GWS. Limiting turnovers, halting quick transitions and defending the corridor will be the key to a victory for the Kangaroos as evidenced by the tables below. When North allows the opposition to shred them on the counter the rest is history. Turnovers are everything in today’s game and it’s been the downfall all season.
Kangaroos in Wins
| Scores from stoppages | Scores from turnovers |
| 45.2 | 77.4 |
| 27.8 | 31.2 |
| +17.4 points | +46.2 points |
Kangaroos in Losses
| Scores from stoppages | Scores from turnovers |
| 33.37 | 46.37 |
| 28.5 | 64.37 |
| +4.87 points | -18 points |
Richmond Score Sources
In North’s favour, the Tigers haven’t been overly damaging at converting turnovers to scores this season ranking twelfth. Nevertheless they have improved in recent weeks, averaging almost 70-points per game in their three most recent wins.
Where Richmond has consistently excelled all year is at stoppages, an area where they lead the competition for scores from stoppages differential and scores from stoppages strike rate. There’s no question the Tigers have plenty of young talent in the middle. Thankfully for Kangaroos supporters this is one area where North stands up defensively, having allowed the fifth fewest points to date from stoppages.
This match up becomes pretty cut and dry from a scoring perspective. Both teams are elite at generating scoring punch from the middle so it’s fair game to suggest the four points will go to whichever team can protect the football and limit their turnovers.
As is the case with North, the weak area for Richmond is opposition points from turnovers. The Tigers concede the eighth most in the competition, just one spot ahead of the Roos defensively. If you look at Richmond’s splits in wins and losses it’s essentially a mirror image of North’s output.
Richmond Wins
| Scores from stoppages | Scores from turnovers |
| 47 | 59 |
| 23.42 | 42.33 |
| +24.77 points | +16.66 points |
Richmond Losses
| Scores from stoppages | Scores from turnovers |
| 34 | 38 |
| 30 | 71.75 |
| +4 points | -33.75 points |
The deeper you delve into each side’s ability to score, the more they mirror each other, even when it comes to methods of scoring. The only obvious disparity is the Tigers’ ability to defend the corridor and restrict open scores on the run.
| Scoring summary for | Corridor | Set shots | On run | Snaps |
| North | 5th | 4th | 10th | 8th |
| Richmond | 6th | 5th | 9th | 5th |
| Scoring summary against | Corridor | Set shots | On run | Snaps |
| North | 12th | 12th | 10th | 8th |
| Richmond | 3rd | 7th | 4th | 6th |
The same can be said for locations on the ground, with both sides close to emulating each other when it comes to where they launches their scores.
| Score launches for | Forward 50 | Midfield | Defensive 50 |
| North | 8th | 4th | 13th |
| Richmond | 4th | 5th | 11th |
| Score launches against | Forward 50 | Midfield | Defensive 50 |
| North | 7th | 6th | 15th |
| Richmond | 4th | 4th | 11th |
The Hard Questions
Who Stops Jack Riewoldt?
The two-time Coleman medallist has been at his efficient best this season, ranking top three for goals and marks inside 50, whilst leading the competition for scoreboard impact (343 points) and disposals inside forward 50 per game.
What’s most impressive is Riewoldt has done all this as only the ninth most targeted player inside 50 for the year to date. Scott Thompson will no doubt get first crack after experiencing some success in the past and has accumulated the seventh most marks from opposition kicks this year. However given the changes in the Tigers forward setup, there will be plenty of focus on lead up target Tyrone Vickery.
[RELATED: Scouting Report – Richmond’s forward setup]
Is there an advantage in the middle?
Both clubs have a plethora of talent running through the guts and this is where the game is likely to be won. Todd Goldstein has been excellent and ranks second in the competition for average hit-outs to advantage but the Tigers, and specifically Ivan Maric, have experienced the better scoreboard return when a tap is in their favour.
| Hitouts to Advantage | Win % | Score % |
| North | 5th (11.8%) | 9th (18.9%) |
| Richmond | 8th (10.7%) | 3rd (25.8%) |
Centre square rotations are paramount in the modern game and when it comes to Richmond and North, it’s the Tigers who bat deeper. Both sides rely on six core midfielders who have each had more than one hundred centre square involvements this season, one of which is North’s Ben Cunnington, whose return to the field couldn’t be more perfectly timed.
The next tier is where things get interesting with the Kangaroos having no players with at least fifty centre square involvements compared to Richmond who has Vickery, Nathan Foley, Nick Vlastuin and Reece Conca as prominent fall back options.
It’s no secret North has fallen victim to late game fadeouts this season with opposition sides cutting them up through the corridor in time on. Increasing the rotations at the coalface against a side with the midfield depth of the Tigers could help fight off these late game issues of fatigue.
| North Melbourne | Centre square involvements |
| Goldstein | 353 |
| Swallow | 302 |
| Wells | 238 |
| Ziebell | 211 |
| Cunnington | 187 |
| Bastinac | 141 |
| Adams | 39 |
| Greenwood | 36 |
| Daw | 30 |
| Richmond | Centre square involvements |
| Maric | 239 |
| Cotchin | 222 |
| Deledio | 167 |
| S Edwards | 139 |
| Jackson | 134 |
| Martin | 119 |
| Grigg | 92 |
| Vickery | 85 |
| Foley | 63 |
| Vlastuin | 58 |
| Conca | 54 |
What about Lindsay Thomas?
Thomas is having the best year of his career to date sitting fourth in the Coleman, ranking ninth for disposals inside fifty and fourth for scoreboard impact with 307 points, so his two week suspension couldn’t be any more frustrating for North.
Brent Harvey may need to play much deeper to cover the loss although that wouldn’t be ideal given he currently ranks fifth for score assists per game, second for bounces per game and second for kicks inside fifty retained. Lindsay’s absence will definitely be felt.
Alex Rance, a repeat nightmare?
Drew Petrie has flown under the radar this season despite ranking top ten for contested marks, marks on the lead and goals kicked. Last time the teams met, he was the difference and gave Rance hell, but with the addition of Troy Chaplin, the Tigers possess the ability to reduce his impact.
Petrie is currently the third most targeted player inside 50 and will no doubt see his fair share of delivery. With Lindsay Thomas out, a repeat of last season’s seven goal haul could very well be the difference yet again.
Who will win and why?
At this point, the stakes for the Kangaroos are massive. Lose this weekend and finals are out of the question (barring a record winning streak). This is a must win game and that urgency needs to be on display, especially minus key personnel and up forward where the Kangaroos pressure has been lacklustre to say the least.
| Pressure summary | Differential ranking | Post clearance | Defensive 50 | Defensive midfield | Attacking midfield | Forward 50 |
| North | 7th | 4th | 11th | 7th | 3rd | 16th |
| Richmond | 15th | 14th | 15th | 13th | 11th | 10th |
The Kangaroos will need to win first use and play this game on their terms. Ranking number one overall for time in possession differential proves they can win the wealth of disposal and take the Tigers out of their comfort zone.
North may have the higher overall pressure rating and tackling numbers but that counts for little if they fail to produce turnovers. The Tigers are dangerous without possession once play becomes stagnant as evidenced by their ranking of second overall for marks from opposition kicks. North must look to play direct and with pace when holes appear to counter Richmond’s defensive setup.
North Melbourne has a 14-6 win/loss record in its last twenty games at Etihad Stadium with only one of those six losses by more than eighteen points.
The Kangaroos have faced many quality opponents and shown in extended patches they’re capable of playing the required style of football that troubles Richmond. The problem is, they’re yet to prove it across four quarters.
If a finals heartbeat is to last beyond this Saturday, that has to change.
Tip: North Melbourne by 8 points.
