Follow Scott on Twitter: @ScottyBarby
Topics covered
1. North in wins and losses
2. Essendon in wins and losses
3. Timing your run
4. Forward line spread
5. O Captain, My Captain
6. Who will win and why?
The home and away bodies of work are in the books and we’re finally off to the big September dance. The stage is set and the on-field theatre promises to be electric with a win or go home prospect looming. Two traditional rivals meeting at the MCG for the first time since 2002, it’s only fitting that such a spectacle be delivered with everything on the line.
North Melbourne hasn’t experienced the ecstasy of a finals win since 2007 and for the Bombers it’s been a decade. That first step towards the ultimate goal of a premiership is on offer, and given the rollercoaster antics of season 2014 a Cinderella run to the podium doesn’t seem all that far-fetched.
This is finals footy where anything can happen, where the greats are born, and the narratives both crippling and joyous last a lifetime.
It’s good to be home.
North in wins and losses
From a statistical point of view, whether the Kangaroos will win or lose couldn’t be more transparent.
When the KPI’s light up green everything is great, and when red they’re essentially league worst with little to no middle ground. Seven teams playing off in September ranked between one and eight for disposals and uncontested possession during the normal season, with Fremantle the sole outlier.
The old adage ‘possession is nine-tenths of the law’ couldn’t be more prominent as an alignment with success in the AFL today. North Melbourne is no different, ranking second for disposal differential in wins.
The only means which the teams in the top half differ is their method of usage when it comes to winning the ball. Sydney and Fremantle opt to play more direct relying on the long ball, while Essendon, Hawthorn, Geelong and the Kangaroos have a preference for utilising more precise and controlled short targets. We all saw what happened when the Bombers were allowed to dominate the ball at will in round one and this is where the game is again likely to be won or lost on Saturday night.
When North excels, its foot skills and discipline match its endeavour. It’s critical that the side is in sync and work-rate is high, as results have been at their worst when ‘play-on’ numbers from marks is high, and too much handball with little fluency results in turnovers.
Limiting this against Essendon can be incredibly tough due to its game style, which rarely flirts with risk. In losses the Kangaroos possessed the league’s worst effective kick, kick-to-handball ratio and uncontested mark differentials, along with the second-highest mark to play-on percentage. Starving teams of the footy is the Bombers’ brand and it’s the biggest issue with North in losses this season.
It’s somewhat bleak reading, but the good news is the severity of the issue has been nullified in the last two months of the season.
| North differentials | Short kicks | Effective kicks | Kicking efficiency | Kick to handball ratio | Disposals | MPO% | Uncontested marks | Contested marks |
| Wins | +21.7 | +22.3 | +1.8% | +0.04 | +44.5 | -2% | +11.3 | +0.4 |
| Losses | -33 | -39.2 | -5.8% | -0.28 | -38 | +9.7% | -28.5 | -4.5 |
| North differentials | Marks I50 | Uncontested possession | Contested possession | Tackles | Inside 50's | Goal scoring efficiency |
| Wins | +3.1 | +32.9 | +11.4 | +1.4 | +2.1 | +10.5% |
| Losses | -5.1 | -28.8 | -9.9 | -6.9 | -5.2 | -6.5% |
Essendon in wins and losses
Essendon’s KPI’s indicate that if you take away its ability to hit uncontested targets by foot, you win the game. While it sounds simple enough, it’s easier said than done due to the Bombers’ supreme work-rate. A little five metre burst into space is all it takes for the next link in the chain to be complete.
If three or four direct opponents offer that space the Bombers will happily take advantage. For those who dare watch the Round 1 replay, you can see this occurring time and time again, eventually resulting in an avenue to goal.
This Essendon outfit will chip it around until you’re dehydrated and when that one direct opponent falls asleep it sets off the domino effect. 70.2% of all Bombers’ kicks are of the short variety - far and away the highest percentage in the competition.
Michael Hibberd, Dyson Heppell, Brent Stanton, David Zaharakis and Brendon Goddard are the most frequent at delivering short, as well as being arguably Essendon’s most dangerous players. All five rank inside the top 30 for short kicks with the Bombers registering eight players inside the top 40 for effective short kicks.
No matter what you do Essendon is going to accumulate its disposals; registering the best disposal differential in losses this season. It’s the means by which you let the Bombers have possession that makes or breaks the result, as indicated by their heavy increase of handball in losses.
The objective for North is cut and dry; wear your opponent tight for four quarters. To force them out of their comfort zone by eliminating their chipping game and making it as scrappy as possible.
Earlier in the year the Kangaroos were synonymous with doing the complete opposite and allowing sides to use that uncontested target, increasing the stranglehold of their zone before eventually squeezing a turnover.
In the second half of the season this has changed and that space is no longer as apparent. It’s a welcomed trend given it aligns with nullifying Essendon’s primary strength.
| Essendon differentials | Short kicks | Effective kicks | Kicking efficiency | Kicks | Handballs | Kick to handball ratio | Disposals | Marks |
| Wins | +29 | +33 | +2.8% | +40.4 | +1.1 | +0.25 | +41.5 | +31.8 |
| Losses | +0.2 | -9.6 | -3.3% | -3.8 | +19 | -0.19 | +15.2 | -1.2 |
| Essendon differentials | MPO% | Uncontested marks | Clearances | Tackles | Inside 50's | Goal scoring efficiency |
| Wins | -2.7% | +28 | +2.8 | +10.2 | +7.9 | +4.4% |
| Losses | +5.8% | -2.8 | -0.3 | 0.0 | +3.9 | -9.9% |
Timing your run
After considering Essendon’s strengths, it may look tough for North to restrict their opposition. Fear not, as the key with finals is timing your run and all of the Kangaroos’ defensive indicators over the last eight weeks have been trending upwards.
The Bombers’ 159 marks in round one (146 uncontested) was the most of any side this season. Essendon registered three of the top five marking totals this season against North, Carlton and Collingwood, totalling 419 uncontested marks across the three games and winning by an average margin of 61 points.
In the first 15 rounds of the season, the Kangaroos allowed the second-most uncontested marks per game, with only St Kilda behind them. Such output would have Essendon salivating.
But just at the right time, North has improved its defensive ranking for uncontested marks from 17th to eighth in the last eight rounds. In fact, the Kangaroos have improved in every problem area since those first 15 weeks, while maintaining their strengths.
The majority will brush it off as a product of the fixture. North’s opponents from Rounds 1-15 had an average ladder position of 9.5, compared to 11 from Rounds 16-23. However, you can only perform against the team on the park.
This Kangaroos’ outfit did everything that was required of them to show it can produce in September.
| NMFC differential rankings | Short kicks | Effective kicks | Kicking efficiency | Kicks | Handballs | Disposals | MPO% |
| Rounds 1-15 | 12th | 13th | 16th | 11th | 4th | 8th | 6th |
| Rounds 16-23 | 2nd | 5th | 10th | 4th | 6th | 2nd | 6th |
| NMFC differential rankings | Tackles | Clearances | Uncontested marks | Inside 50's | Goal scoring efficiency |
| Rounds 1-15 | 10th | 5th | 17th | 13th | 4th |
| Rounds 16-23 | 11th | 3rd | 5th | 6th | 4th |
From the naked eye, it looks as though the sides are heading into finals in different veins of form, and the data backs it up. Below you can find the differential output between the two sides from rounds 1-15, compared to 16-23.
Click to enlarge
Click to enlarge
Forward line spread
A primary issue for both North and Essendon has been ironing out the kinks in their respective forward lines. The Bombers have experienced a resurgence on the back of Jake Carlisle’s red-hot form, while North has flourished under a three-talls setup since the addition of Ben Brown.
With Carlisle absent due to injury, the Bombers will need to be creative in rotating their plethora of versatile midfielders, isolating the resting ruckman in Patrick Ryder or Tom Bellchambers, and looking to swing Michael Hurley forward.
The importance of Carlisle is best highlighted when you compare the Bombers’ rising reliance on his output as the leading man inside 50.
For the first 15 weeks of the year Carlisle struggled, with Joe Daniher the favoured pathway to goal.
The two virtually flipped roles for the final eight weeks of the season, as Essendon’s midfielders looked to utilise Carlisle at every opportunity – rightly so given his form. One in every four entries inside 50 was targeted towards the big man, and the return on investment was rich. The Bombers only utilise the two core key-position forwards.
Essendon Forward Targets
| Rounds 1-15 | % of targets | Marks inside 50 | Goals | Scoreboard impact (average) |
| Joe Daniher | 19.95% | 27 | 18 | 11.4 |
| Jake Carlisle | 11.51% | 13 | 8 | 7.3 |
| Jason Winderlich | 7.42% | 13 | 9 | 14.9 |
| Patrick Ryder | 6.91% | 15 | 10 | 8.3 |
| Tom Bellchambers | 6.65% | 6 | 2 | 5.8 |
| Paul Chapman | 6.39% | 10 | 12 | 12.4 |
| Brendon Goddard | 6.14% | 11 | 10 | 8.9 |
| Rounds 16-23 | % of targets | Marks inside 50 | Goals | Scoreboard impact (average) |
| Jake Carlisle | 24.01% | 25 | 19 | 22.2 |
| Joe Daniher | 14.41% | 13 | 6 | 10.3 |
| Patrick Ambrose | 8.29% | 7 | 8 | 9.6 |
| Patrick Ryder | 6.98% | 9 | 9 | 11 |
| Brendon Goddard | 6.98% | 7 | 6 | 11.6 |
| Paul Chapman | 5.24% | 7 | 8 | 10 |
| Jason Winderlich | 5.24% | 5 | 6 | 8 |
North has opted for a three key-position forward setup up all season and after numerous experiments look to have finally gotten the mix right.
Drew Petrie is still the focal point in attack, but as players have become more in tune with the game plan, opportunities going forward have increased. Thankfully for the Kangaroos, the chances haven’t been wasted.
| Round 16-23 v 1-15 (average) | Kicks inside 50 | Retain % | Mark % | Goal scoring efficiency |
| NMFC | +5.1 | +4.3% | +3.5% | +6.2% |
The loss of Brent Harvey is significant, but the output of the resting midfielder has been of great value. Ben Cunnington, Jack Ziebell and Ryan Bastinac have all had an enhanced scoreboard impact recently. Aaron Black is often criticised for a lack of goals, but in the last eight weeks had led the side in assists.
The forward-line has improved dramatically in the second half of the season, and it’s hard to imagine that being the case without Brown. He has proved to be invaluable in terms of balancing out the setup and complementing the attributes of his teammates.
An ability to spread the load has seen the Kangaroos become less predictable.
| Rounds 1-15 | Rank | Per game | Rounds 16-23 | Rank | Per game |
| Scores via corridor | 7th | 17.35 | Scores via corridor | 3rd | 19 |
| Scores via marks | 16th | 8th | Scores via marks | 1st | 11.87 |
| Scores via set shots | 16th | 9.42 | Scores via set shots | 1st | 13.87 |
North Forward Targets
| Rounds 1-15 | % of targets | Marks inside 50 | Goals | Scoreboard impact (average) |
| Drew Petrie | 25.55% | 30 | 22 | 14.1 |
| Aaron Black | 12.57% | 17 | 16 | 10.4 |
| Lindsay Thomas | 11.4% | 15 | 27 | 18.8 |
| Majak Daw | 7.6% | 5 | 5 | 9.7 |
| Leigh Adams | 5.26% | 6 | 6 | 6.4 |
| Brent Harvey | 4.97% | 19 | 19 | 14 |
| Dan Currie | 4.97% | 3 | 3 | 4 |
| Rounds 16-23 | % of targets | Marks inside 50 | Goals | Scoreboard impact (average) |
| Drew Petrie | 24.56% | 21 | 19 | 23.9 |
| Aaron Black | 14.91% | 17 | 9 | 16.5 |
| Lindsay Thomas | 17.98% | 9 | 12 | 20.4 |
| Ben Brown | 14.47% | 14 | 11 | 14.7 |
| Jack Ziebell | 4.82% | 8 | 9 | 12.7 |
| Ben Cunnington | 3.07% | 9 | 9 | 12.1 |
| Ryan Bastinac | 3.07% | 4 | 8 | 14.3 |
O Captain! My Captain!
In Round 1, Essendon finished with 22 more clearances and 45 more contested possessions. It was a one way demolition job of North’s midfield brigade and one which should still leave a sour aftertaste. If there’s one man who can flip the script and change the fortunes in the middle this time around, it’s skipper Andrew Swallow.
Since returning from injury, Swallow has been a coal face commander and a supreme leader. From Round 15, he’s been one of the premier midfielders in the competition.
- Ranked 9th in contested possession
- Ranked 8th for inside 50’s
- Ranked 6th for tackles
- Ranked 2nd for centre bounce clearances
- Ranked 1st for overall clearances
In that span Swallow has combined with Todd Goldstein for the most productive one-two stoppage punch in the league.
The Roos’ number 9 has also been the catalyst for 93 points from stoppages since Round 16, 30 more than the next ranked player in Richmond’s Trent Cotchin.
The enhanced production from Swallow has opened up the ability for more forays forward. The Kangaroos own the AFL’s best strike-rate in scoring from stoppages in the last two months, an area where Essendon ranks seventh.
Who will win and why?
For the first 15 weeks of the season, and particularly round one, North’s core issues were allowing too much space to its opponents and failing to provide the forward line with enough opportunity. In the back third of the season these problems have been rectified. Outside of Harvey’s suspension and Lachlan Hansen’s injury, preparation couldn’t have been any better.
Essendon on the other hand has seen its performance stagnate in the lead up to September, and the loss of Carlisle is arguably the one commodity it could not afford to lose.
The Bombers have already struggled with generating points, ranking 10th in the competition with 518 scoring shots, compared to the Kangaroos in sixth place with 571.
It makes the prospect of a shootout aligning with an Essendon victory all the more unlikely. Nevertheless the Bombers’ defence is good enough to strangle their opposition and win a relatively low-scoring encounter. Essendon has allowed just 469 total scores this season which is the fourth fewest of any club, compared to North at seventh with 491.
Another question mark surrounding the Bombers is their ability to play four quarters. On the season Essendon has won 41 of 88 quarters (46.5 per cent) whilst North has won 50 at a success rate of 57 per cent.
If the Kangaroos can stay competitive in the second quarter (7-14 record), they’ll enter the rooms confident a 31-13 record in second half record, compared to Essendon’s 18-26, can get them over the line.
Any success for Brad Scott’s team starts with shutting down Essendon’s reliance on a short kicking game and limiting uncontested targets. In the second half of the season, the Kangaroos showed they possess the necessary qualities to do so.
Tip: North Melbourne by 11 points
