The views in this article are those of the author and not necessarily those of the AFL or its clubs.

If the 2014 season has taught us one thing, it is that the home-and-away year can be properly analysed only after its completion.

Not after six rounds, not in a mid-year eight-week stretch, not pre- or post-bye weekend, certainly not after a shock result – the full 22 matches need to be played by all 18 clubs before accurate assessments can be made.

With 12 teams still alive in the premiership race, and no club deliberately structuring its team in order to qualify for a compensation draft pick, the final three rounds promise to contain many surprises.

When we were first made aware of Sam Mitchell's injury, or Josh Gibson's torn pec, or Alastair Clarkson's absence for five matches with illness, or Cyril Rioli's pinged hamstring, most of us dismissed Hawthorn's premiership credentials. After round 20, it sits atop the ladder.

The Sydney Swans lost three of their first four, and Buddy Franklin was not just crashing into parked cars but also, in the belief of many, the Swans' culture generally, and Daniel Hannebery specifically.

It too, was no longer a premiership hope. Right now, you'll see it sitting below Hawthorn on the ladder by just a few percentage points.

West Coast was a premiership hope and a virtual given for the top four when it opened the season with a combined 183-point winning margin from its first three games. Then it lost the next seven of eight, meaning Adam Simpson was a poor choice as coach.

But with three wins from the past four games, the Eagles are now the team which could do some damage in September if they make it. And Simpson was an inspired choice to replace Woosha after all.

The flag was well within North Melbourne's reach on the early July night it beat Hawthorn. That victory was the club's fourth against teams then placed in the top four on the ladder.

Yet only the week before, after a bad loss to the Brisbane Lions, the Roos lacked substance, as they did when they lost to Carlton in round 18.

They are on track to finish sixth on entering September. A win in an elimination final will be a pass mark for the year, whereas a loss will be a fail. Of course it is not that simple, but that is how the result will be viewed.

Some wrote off Collingwood after Fremantle stitched it up by 70 points in the first game. Some are writing it off again after six losses from the past eight games. But there was nothing but top-four possibilities between rounds four and 12, when the Pies won seven of eight.

Injuries to gun players and a key retirement have seriously hurt, but they're still alive. Defeat the Lions and GWS in the next weeks and judge them then, because they will have made the finals.

After 11 games, Port Adelaide was 10-1 and a second AFL premiership was heading its way. But in the eight matches since, the form line is the same as Collingwood's in that same stretch, 2-6. Yet it showed signs of a re-emergence against the Swans last week and it could still finish top four.

Again, let's wait until it's all done.

Fremantle's eight consecutive wins up to round 18 saw it considered a certainty to make a second straight Grand Final. But then it lost to St Kilda. St Kilda! Ha! Goodbye Grand Final.

Then on the weekend it failed to beat the Cats at Simonds Stadium only when David Mundy's after-the-siren kick missed by a few centimetres. So the premiership dream is clearly alive again, eh?

Geelong was gone when it lost to the Sydney Swans by 110 points in round 11. And then definitely gone three weeks later when Gold Coast beat it by 40 points. But we all now look at the fact it is equal on 15 wins with Hawthorn and Sydney, and has won eight of the past nine. And given the Dockers can again win the flag, surely the Cats can too.

After a 7-2 start to the year, Gold Coast was being congratulated on making its first finals series. It was a confirmed finalist the day the Suns' young guns covered for their injured captain, and other injured teammates, and held on for a gutsy five-point win against Collingwood in round 16.

That effort in the second half of that match was proof Gary Ablett would be covered. But weren't we wrong on that? Three losses in the next four games, with three tough games to come, have put the finals out of reach. Hasn't it?

Adelaide was a lost cause by April 5 when it lost its third match to open the season. But when it beat Collingwood for a second time in late July, it was a premiership smoky. Then, just a week later, again a lost cause when it was beaten at home by West Coast.

Essendon's six wins from eight matches from rounds 11-18 had us all believing it could cause some damage in September. But losses since to the Swans and Richmond have us wondering if, indeed, it is good enough to qualify.

Then there's Richmond. A 3-10 form line now reads 9-10.

Carlton was gone, so too the coach, after four losses to start the year, and then another five losses in a row in rounds 11-15. But a closer look reveals that four matches have been lost by eight points or less, including to Geelong and Fremantle. In reality, Malthouse is arguably coaching as well as any stage of his 30 years in the caper.

The Lions were Fitzroy reincarnated until the bye. Now, there's hope. Before last weekend's thrashing by Adelaide, they had gallantly scrounged five wins in a nine-game stretch, including a victory against North Melbourne.

The Western Bulldogs have regularly battled, but they have registered seven wins and will probably get one more before the year is done. Eight wins is a pass.

GWS has been at times embarrassing, but losing margins are no longer as regularly heavy. Melbourne under Paul Roos has occasionally looked like Melbourne under Mark Neeld. But wins against Adelaide, Essendon, Richmond and Carlton are proof that there is something for the future.

St Kilda was always going to struggle, and while it won't win again, victories against Fremantle and Essendon will continue to be savoured.

We all do it – make judgments based on a single match or moment. We let emotion and passion override considered analysis.

And we're almost certain to do it again as we attempt to forecast the next three rounds, despite knowing that inevitably there will be outcomes which not only loom as unlikely right now, but which will ultimately shape the 2014 premiership battle.