As someone who has won more than his fair share of games off his own boot, the North legend says both sides will be dependent on their full forwards if they stand a chance of winning.
“They may not be playing on one another, but if either has a night out it will go a long way to getting their team over the line,” Carey writes.
In his weekly Fairfax Media column, the former number 18 says Petrie must lift after a quiet year. Carey knows the vice-captain's late game heroics against the Bombers were important, but believes there’s still plenty for him to accomplish.
“Petrie is the first to admit his season was well below par. But as he showed last week, seasons count for nothing on the big stage.
“Petrie had endured a pretty horrid night against the Bombers, but instead of letting his frustrations get the better of him, he kept willing himself to the contest and eventually grabbed his moment. All it took was five minutes of football and two goals, and his input was suddenly immeasurable.
“He effectively won the game for the Kangas and kept their season alive.”
The fact Petrie was able to have such an influence after being well held certainly struck a chord with Carey.
“Being able to take your moment – especially under duress – speaks volumes of a player, and Petrie's output after such a quiet match was a reflection of his resilience and determination.”
While Carey was North’s focal point in his playing days, a look at the numbers shows just how much the Roos spread the load.
“When North's players go forward, they go to Petrie 25 per cent of the time. Their next most popular option is Lindsay Thomas, who is targeted 15 per cent of the time, while Aaron Black is hit up 13 per cent of the time and Ben Brown about eight per cent.”
For the Cats, Hawkins is relied upon much more with one-third of their entries aimed toward him.
“What's more of a worry, however, is just how few other genuine options they have. Jimmy Bartel has enjoyed a solid year up forward, yet the Cats go to him just 7.5 per cent of the time, with Jordan Murdoch (5 per cent) and Stevie J (5 per cent) their next preferred targets. Other than Hawkins, have the Cats really got another recognised forward?” Carey asked.
While Petrie stood tall in North’s final, Hawkins was quiet in Geelong’s and Carey suspects he’ll be out to turn the tables.
“He'll certainly be looking to bounce back from last week. After all, when did you last see him get to the ball so much and not deliver?”
Petrie will have his hands full with Tom Lonergan and Carey wants to see the Kangaroos isolate him if they can. Hawkins is likely to matched up on Scott Thompson or Nathan Grima, with Michael Firrito chipping in to cover.
“No matter which way you look at it, the battle for supremacy between Hawkins and Petrie will be intriguing.
“Indeed, North Melbourne and Geelong have played in some pretty big finals over the years. This is shaping as another beauty that could go either way.”
