The views in this article are those of the author and not necessarily those of the AFL or its clubs.
1. Fremantle
56 points (14 wins, two losses) 126.7 per cent
The Dockers went a long way to cementing a top-two place on the ladder and a home qualifying final with their last-gasp win over Richmond on Saturday. It leaves them two games clear of third-placed Hawthorn. Also pivotal to their top-two aspirations will be rounds 20 and 21 that feature a home derby with the Eagles and a trip to Etihad to face the enigmatic North Melbourne. On form, Freo would start favourite in four of its last six games.
The run home:
Rd 18: GWS at Domain Stadium
Rd 19: St Kilda at Etihad Stadium
Rd 20: West Coast at Domain Stadium
Rd 21: North Melbourne at Etihad Stadium
Rd 22: Melbourne at Domain Stadium
Rd 23: Port Adelaide at Adelaide Oval
2. West Coast
52 points (13 wins, three losses) 158.6 per cent
How serious a flag threat are the Eagles? Well, they just keep seeing off all comers. Their win over a depleted Sydney Swans line-up was super impressive and will give them plenty of confidence leading into big games against Hawthorn in round 19 and the leader-leaders in round 20. Those encounters will have a big say in whether Adam Simpson's team can clinch a home final in week one of the finals, but they look set to finish in the top-four and may be Hawthorn's greatest challenger to the premiership.
The run home:
Rd 18: Gold Coast at Metricon Stadium
Rd 19: Hawthorn at Domain Stadium
Rd 20: Fremantle at the Domain Stadium
Rd 21: Western Bulldogs at Domain Stadium
Rd 22: Adelaide at Adelaide Oval
Rd 23: St Kilda at Domain Stadium
3. Hawthorn
48 points (12 wins, four losses) 170.1 per cent
The three-peat is still on. The Hawks are charging towards another premiership and doing it in style, after poleaxing Carlton on the weekend for another percentage-boosting victory. The heavy wins could prove decisive as Alastair Clarkson's men attempt to dislodge one of Fremantle or West Coast to secure a qualifying final on home turf. Round 20's western derby works in the Hawks' favour, as at least one of the Perth teams will drop points. The round 19 clash with West Coast is essentially a play-off for a top-two berth and if the Hawks win, then their final two games against the Lions and Blues might afford them the chance to freshen some veterans ahead of the finals.
The run home:
Rd 18: Richmond at the MCG
Rd 19: West Coast at Domain Stadium
Rd 20: Geelong at the MCG
Rd 21: Port Adelaide at Etihad Stadium
Rd 22: Brisbane Lions at Aurora Stadium
Rd 23: Carlton at the MCG
4. Sydney Swans
44 points (11 wins, five losses) 112.5 per cent
The Swans find themselves looking over the shoulder after successive beltings. Thankfully for Swans fans, the Dockers beat the fifth-placed Tigers, and it gets easier now for John Longmire and his team. Away games against finals contenders Geelong and GWS pose the major challenges in the remaining seven games, three of which are at the SCG. A home clash with the Suns in round 23 shapes as an ideal tune-up before the finals.
The run home:
Rd 18: Adelaide at the SCG
Rd 19: Geelong at Simonds Stadium
Rd 20: Collingwood at the SCG
Rd 21: GWS at Spotless Stadium
Rd 22: St Kilda at Etihad Stadium
Rd 23: Gold Coast at the SCG
5. Richmond
40 points (10 wins, six losses) 111.5 per cent
Richmond's tilt at the top-four received a major blow on the weekend in its tight loss to Fremantle. Luckily for the Tigers, the Swans also lost so they remain only a game behind fourth. At least their run home features plenty of MCG action in case they land a home elimination final. Richmond plays four of its next five games at the 'G, with this Friday night's clash with Hawthorn likely to largely decide whether they can remain in contention for a top-four finish or if they will be fighting for fifth or sixth.
The run home:
Rd 18: Hawthorn at the MCG
Rd 19: Adelaide at Adelaide Oval
Rd 20: Gold Coast at the MCG
Rd 21: Collingwood at the MCG
Rd 22: Essendon at the MCG
Rd 23: North Melbourne at Etihad Stadium
6. Western Bulldogs
40 points (10 wins, six losses) 106.8 per cent
In contrast to the Tigers, the Bulldogs won't see the MCG again before September. The sons of the west have a good run to the finals. They avoid all sides above them except West Coast in their remaining games, with the round 23 trip to Queensland their only other game away from Etihad Stadium. They looked back to their best against the Magpies on the weekend and in that type of form should register enough wins to be in the hunt for a home final. Coach Luke Beveridge is headed to September in his first season at the helm.
The run home:
Rd 18: Essendon at Etihad Stadium
Rd 19: Port Adelaide at Etihad Stadium
Rd 20: Melbourne at Etihad Stadium
Rd 21: West Coast at Domain Stadium
Rd 22: North Melbourne at Etihad Stadium
Rd 23: Brisbane Lions at the Gabba
7. Adelaide
38 points (nine wins, six losses, one no result) 106.3 per cent
Adelaide followed its emotional Showdown win over Port Adelaide with a workmanlike victory against Gold Coast to move into sixth position. But the Crows face a battle to remain there with top eight sides the Sydney Swans, Richmond and West Coast still to play plus the last game of the year at Geelong. You get the feeling Adelaide's season will be alive until the final weekend. In that event the hype ahead of a trip to Geelong – with Patrick Dangerfield tipped to be a Cat next year – will be out of control.
The run home:
Rd 18: Sydney Swans at the SCG
Rd 19: Richmond at Adelaide Oval
Rd 20: Essendon at Etihad Stadium
Rd 21: Brisbane Lions at Adelaide Oval
Rd 22: West Coast at Adelaide Oval
Rd 23: Geelong at Simonds Stadium
8. North Melbourne
36 points (nine wins, seven losses) 103 per cent
The Kangaroos should be well ensconced in the eight in three weeks. After dealing with the Brisbane Lions in Brent Harvey's 400th game, they face bottom-six teams Carlton, Melbourne and St Kilda in the next three weeks. But these are the Kangaroos, who never miss an opportunity to miss an opportunity. St Kilda will pose the biggest threat. The last three games of the year are on their home deck at Etihad Stadium and will likely tell the tale of the season. Round 23 against Richmond will be unbearable for their fans if it becomes a 'win to get in' scenario.
The run home:
Rd 18: Carlton at Etihad Stadium
Rd 19: Melbourne at the MCG
Rd 20: St Kilda at Blundstone Arena
Rd 21: Fremantle at Etihad Stadium
Rd 22: Western Bulldogs at Etihad Stadium
Rd 23: Richmond at Etihad Stadium
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9. Greater Western Sydney
36 points (nine wins, seven losses) 101.9 per cent
The Giants let themselves down on Saturday afternoon against Geelong, losing an important game to another top-eight contender. Had they beaten the Cats, they would have gone 10 points clear of Geelong and not had to worry about them again. Now, the round 21 match-up against the Sydney Swans at Spotless will be massive for the Giants' chances. They should win three of their remaining games but may need to clinch a fourth. Can they do it?
The run home:
Rd 18: Fremantle at Domain Stadium
Rd 19: Essendon at Spotless Stadium
Rd 20: Port Adelaide at Adelaide Oval
Rd 21: Sydney Swans at Spotless Stadium
Rd 22: Carlton at Spotless Stadium
Rd 23: Melbourne at Etihad Stadium
10. Geelong
34 points (eight wins, seven losses, one no result) 98.2 per cent
The finals light still flickers after the Cats' strong win over GWS. They delivered in what was a must-win, particularly as the Swans, Hawks and Pies still loom on their horizon. They'll look at their remaining draw and believe they're a chance to win them all, even up against their great rival of the last seven years, the Hawks. It will be fascinating to see the old guard at the Cats pulling out all stops for one last finals appearance.
The run home:
Rd 18: Brisbane Lions at Simonds Stadium
Rd 19: Sydney Swans at Simonds Stadium
Rd 20: Hawthorn at the MCG
Rd 21: St Kilda at Etihad Stadium
Rd 22: Collingwood at the MCG
Rd 23: Adelaide at Simonds Stadium
11. Collingwood
32 points (eight wins, eight losses) 114.9 per cent
However the Pies spent their bye week, it hasn't worked out well. Placed fourth and with an 8-3 record going into the break, they are since 0-5 and dropping like a stone. They battled well against the Bulldogs on Sunday but were ultimately outclassed and their finals hopes hang in the balance. Missing the finals for the second straight year would hurt after such a promising start to the season, and if the Pies fail to salvage a spot in September they won't be able to blame air miles. They only leave Victoria one more time for the season and that's an hour away to Sydney.
The run home:
Rd 18: Melbourne at the MCG
Rd 19: Carlton at the MCG
Rd 20: Sydney Swans at the SCG
Rd 21: Richmond at the MCG
Rd 22: Geelong at the MCG
Rd 23: Essendon at the MCG
12. Port Adelaide
28 points (seven wins, nine losses) 98.6 per cent
Port did enough to hold off a spirited Essendon on Saturday night and keep alive its finals dream. For whatever reason, the Power just have not been able to have the same consistent output from their players this year, but perhaps it is the down season an ascending side needs in its pursuit of a flag, like Geelong in 2006. They have to win at least five of their next six games to sneak into the finals, particularly with a poor percentage. But that will be a challenge, given they come up against Hawthorn and Fremantle. The Dockers clash in round 23 might decide their fate.
The run home:
Rd 18: St Kilda at Adelaide Oval
Rd 19: Western Bulldogs at Etihad Stadium
Rd 20: GWS at Adelaide Oval
Rd 21: Hawthorn at Etihad Stadium
Rd 22: Gold Coast at Metricon Stadium
Rd 23: Fremantle at Adelaide Oval
13. St Kilda
24 points (six wins, 10 losses) 90.7 per cent
Richmond last year is the inspiration for including the Saints here. The Tigers won their last nine after a 3-10 start to get into the finals. St Kilda's win over Melbourne was excellent, but with games against six finals contenders to come, don't expect any miracles for Alan Richardson's team. They have shown plenty of improvement this year and the rebuild is taking shape nicely.
The run home:
Rd 18: Port Adelaide at Adelaide Oval
Rd 19: Fremantle at Etihad Stadium
Rd 20: North Melbourne at Blundstone Arena
Rd 21: Geelong at Etihad Stadium
Rd 22: Sydney Swans at Etihad Stadium
Rd 23: West Coast at Domain Stadium
14. Essendon
20 points (five wins, 11 losses) 79.9 per cent
Bomber fans, you can safely book your September holidays. Essendon has turned its attention to playing the kids on its list and getting a gauge on their talent in the last part of this season, and although the Bombers might pinch a win or two, they won't be reaching the finals. It means they still will not have won a final since 2004. A consolation prize looks likely to be a draft selection in the first five or six picks, which will benefit the club after having draft sanctions in the past two years.
The run home:
Rd 18: Western Bulldogs at Etihad Stadium
Rd 19: GWS at Spotless Stadium
Rd 20: Adelaide at Etihad Stadium
Rd 21: Gold Coast at Metricon Stadium
Rd 22: Richmond at the MCG
Rd 23: Collingwood at the MCG
15. Melbourne
20 points (five wins, 11 losses) 77.6 per cent
Like the bottom three teams on the ladder – Carlton, Gold Coast and the Brisbane Lions – we can rule out a finals bid for the Dees. Their poor display against St Kilda on the weekend was another nail in their season, which has lurched between some excellent games (wins over Richmond and Geelong) to the downright awful. Still, it wouldn't be a surprise to see them win a game or two in their last six, particularly against the Blues in round 21.
The run home:
Rd 18: Collingwood at the MCG
Rd 19: North Melbourne at the MCG
Rd 20: Western Bulldogs at Etihad Stadium
Rd 21: Carlton at the MCG
Rd 22: Fremantle at Domain Stadium
Rd 23: GWS at Etihad Stadium
