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After four losses by a combined ten points in the opening nine rounds of the season, any North Melbourne supporter could be excused for seeking the comfort of four padded walls. It’s been an emotionally draining start to the season and watching the final five minutes unfold against Adelaide last Sunday landed the heaviest blow.
Yes, it happened again.
Unable to capitalise on winning positions has become a recurring nightmare for the Kangaroos but this week the players have another opportunity to right the wrongs and take another step towards being the team we know they can and will be.
We’ve faced the best this competition has to offer and have maintained the second highest time in front percentage in the AFL at 68 per cent (behind only Hawthorn at 82 per cent) and have registered the second highest time in possession. If this squad overcomes its hoodoo, watch out.
The Opposition
As we move to Round 10 it will be St. Kilda’s turn to assume responsibility for the momentum swinging pendulum. Thankfully for us Kangaroos’ fans, the Saints have a 0-6 record when trailing at quarter time this season and are 0-5 when trailing at three quarter time, so feel free to prematurely wipe those brows.
St Kilda sits thirteenth for time in front and fourteenth for time in possession. It’s ahead of only Melbourne, GWS, Bulldogs and Brisbane which is a fair indicator of their current ladder position. St. Kilda has also used the sixth most players of any club and has blooded an equal high five debutants. It’s clearly in the initial phase of rebuilding (don’t tell Scott Watters that) although to its credit, it still possesses the ability to blood a very experienced side with plenty of talent.
[RELATED: Scouting Report - when to expect scoring on Sunday]
The Milestoners
The extra kicker for the Kangaroos will be two genuine stars in Brent Harvey and Daniel Wells playing their 350th and 200 games respectively. Boomer has done it all and has proven his class is permanent. You only have to back track to last season’s quarter of brilliance against Essendon to prove it.
Daniel Wells is cut from the same cloth and moves as if he’s floating on water when he glides down the wing. It’s more art than it is brute football. It’s a pleasure to watch and few players are more fascinating and damaging when in full flight. Both are champions of the club and above all else deserve to celebrate with a victory.
Leigh Montagna plays his 200th for the Saints and the club also has plenty to stand up for as he’s been a champion in his own right.
Key Indicators: North Melbourne
The Kangaroos live and die by their foot skills and ability to locate targets and utilise space. They rank second for long kicks, third for effective kicks, second for kicking efficiency and fourth for effective short kicks with the only blemish being sixth overall for clanger kicks. They will need to be at their accurate best as the Saints hold opposing teams to the second lowest kicking efficiency on long kicks.
The majority of teams to have faced the Kangaroos have been more than happy to accommodate them head on and play a direct style of footy.
To date this theory has been successful with teams who simply match the Kangaroos in the more traditional statistical indicators experiencing more success. Teams simply punch North in the mouth with transition from turnovers and score with high efficiency, thus making weight of disposal and skills less relevant.
| North in wins | Disposals | Contested Possession | Inside 50's | Effective Kicks | Uncontested Marks | Kicking Efficiency | Points from Turnovers |
| North Melbourne | 362 | 154 | 59 | 147.33 | 77.33 | 67.8% | 72 |
| Opposition | 312 | 129 | 45 | 112.66 | 57.66 | 66.63& | 33.66 |
| Differential | +50 | +25 | +14 | +34.66 | +19.66 | +1.16% | +38.33 |
| North in losses | Disposals | Contested Possession | Inside 50's | Effective Kicks | Uncontested Marks | Kicking Efficiency | Points from Turnovers |
| North Melbourne | 342 | 138 | 51 | 145.83 | 80.33 | 67.58 | 53 |
| Opposition | 334 | 139 | 55 | 126.83 | 70.63 | 63.83 | 74.5 |
| Differential | +8 | -1 | -4 | +19 | +10.83 | +3.75% | -21.5% |
Defensively is where it gets really ugly for the Roos with their efforts in regards to pressure and tackling underwhelming to say the least. They are seventeenth in loose ball gets ahead of only Melbourne, averaging eight fewer per game than the league average. North’s pressure rating in its defensive 50 is ranked fifteenth ahead of only Richmond, Bulldogs and GWS, and it sits fifteenth for tackle efficiency and sixteenth for tackles which has led to a ranking of dead last for opposition turnovers by foot.
Key Indicators: St. Kilda
The Saints love to run and spread, ranking seventh for uncontested marks and play on percentage, although when the game is played on contested terms, they struggle to compete. Last week the Bulldogs continued that theme, obliterating the Saints at stoppages which comes as no surprise given St. Kilda’s ranking of sixteenth for contested possession and seventeenth for clearances.
Winning first use has taken a backseat for the majority of the competition this year thanks to the evolution of the “slingshot” but it should stay priority number one for the Kangaroos. When the going gets tough, the Saints can be hurt and the Bulldogs proved that as evidenced by the following quarter-by-quarter table;
St. Kilda contested possession and scoreboard differential v Bulldogs Round 9, 2013
| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Match |
| CP differential | -11 | +6 | -16 | -4 | -25 |
| Scoreboard differential | -14 | +24 | -8 | -11 | -9 |
Limiting the Saints’ space will be crucial as they rank number one in the competition for kicking long to advantage and marks on lead, thanks largely to the impeccable work rate and presence of Nick Riewoldt. They rank third for marking percentage when venturing inside fifty but opportunities have been limited with the Saints ranking fifteenth for inside fifties. When St. Kilda do manage to get the ball in the forward line they are quite damaging and register a score 42.4% of the time, the fifth best percentage in the AFL.
To locate the Saints main weakness you only have to look at the usage in wins and losses to see that if you take away their space and ability to spread, combined with winning first use, you’re in the box seat for four points.
| Saints in wins | Kicks | Kicking Efficiency | Disposals | Contested Possession | Marks |
| St Kilda | 224 | 69.6% | 408 | 143 | 114 |
| Opposition | 176 | 62.8% | 299 | 122 | 74 |
| Differential | +48 | +6.9% | +109 | +21 | +40 |
| Saints in losses | Kicks | Kicking Efficiency | Disposals | Contested Possesion | Marks |
| St Kilda | 198 | 63.4% | 330 | 129 | 89 |
| Opposition | 219 | 65.2% | 368 | 141 | 101 |
| Differential | -21 | -1.7% | -38 | -12 | -12 |
North Melbourne has impressed at limiting opposition space. The Roos allow the fewest uncontested marks per game, fifth fewest opposition handballs received, second fewest uncontested possessions and lead the competition in fewest opposition disposals per game which are all hallmark areas of the Saints game style.
We know that North Melbourne has had its issues with pressure and work rate all season and St. Kilda has been experiencing a similar problem. Like North, the Saints are below average at applying pressure in their own defensive fifty ranking in the bottom five for pressure rating, sixteenth in tackle attempts and thirteenth in overall tackles.
[RELATED: NMFC Playbook: Harvey's football smarts]
The lack of contested ability is further underlined when you consider the Saints output when a ball is in dispute. They sit third for loose ball gets but seventeenth for hardball gets. With the Kangaroos allowing the second least opposition loose ball gets this should play into their favour.
North Scoring Sources
The Kangaroos have no issues getting the ball forward and the same can be said when it comes to converting their positive play on the scoreboard. North Melbourne has kicked the fifth most goals in the competition this season and is third for goals scored from inside fifty at 29.3% (behind only Hawthorn and West Coast). The primary reason for this is work at stoppages where they convert a healthy advantage in contested ball and clearances and rank third in the competition for scores from stoppages differential.
As impressive as they are offensively, the Kangaroos have conceded only eighteen fewer points than a rebuilding Western Bulldogs outfit this season. The easiest method of accumulating points is via turnovers and this is a problem that has plagued North. The Roos currently sit fifteenth for points from turnovers and eleventh in points from turnover differential, with the problem only intensifying in second halves.
Not only are opposition teams scoring with relative ease as the game goes on, they’re removing the Kangaroos’ advantage in the process.
North Melbourne’s primary source of points (stoppages) dries up in second halves, dropping from third in the AFL to eleventh.
One area where teams rarely source scores from is kick-ins but North opponents have utilised the corridor with great effect and find little resistance in travelling the length of the ground. Kangaroos’ opponents have recorded the fifth lowest kick-in efficiency but have registered the most inside fifties from this source resulting in North allowing the second most points from kick-ins in the AFL.
North also allow the eleventh fewest entries inside fifty during the second half but concede a score the fourth most often (ahead of only GWS, Melbourne and the Bulldogs).
None of the above is at all flattering but it is reality. The Kangaroos have one major issue and its accountability when it comes to the defensive aspects of the game, especially late in quarters. As a silver lining at least the club is aware of what the problem is. When such a young list is involved, these issues can correct themselves organically over time but there’s no doubt that from a success perspective North is tracking well ahead of the curve.
It is the sixth youngest and sixth most inexperienced list in the competition.
North Melbourne will put up points this Sunday afternoon, that’s not a concern. How they adjust defensively should be the number one focus.
St.Kilda Scoring Sources
Unlike the Kangaroos, St. Kilda sources its points consistently across four quarters, but just like North the Saints are prone to leaking heavy scores during second halves. St.Kilda has been outscored by one-hundred points in second halves this year with ninety-eight of those coming in the opening fifteen minutes of the third and fourth quarters.
What we have here is a case of one team starting second halves slow and one failing to finish. Overall, the Saints have struggled to accumulate points this season ranking thirteenth for both scores from stoppages and scores from turnover differential, and thankfully for North Melbourne supporters, this doesn’t deviate in the Saints’ favour one iota in time on or second halves.
Teams who have success against the Kangaroos utilise the corridor with tremendous effectiveness but with the Saints ranking fourteenth for scores via the corridor and seventeenth for scores from general play, there will be no excuses for North to leak points to the degree they have been.
[RELATED: Stats and Facts: St Kilda]
As we touched on earlier in this section, the Roos love to kick start their scoring punch at stoppages and although Jack Ziebell will be sorely missed, the blue and white should still hold a healthy advantage in this area. In second halves this season the Saints have conceded the third most points from midfield score launches ahead of only GWS and Melbourne.
Key Players – North
North’s midfield is its primary source of points and will be largely responsible for closing down the opposition teams’ transition. It all starts with Todd Goldstein in the middle who is the reason the Kangaroos lead the league for hit-outs won percentage and eighth for hit-outs won resulting in a score; an area the Saints rank thirteenth and fifteenth in respectively.
Andrew Swallow and Ben Cunnington are both top five for clearances and top ten for contested possession with Cunnington eighth in the competition for hard ball gets. The former top five pick has come on in leaps and bounds this season and the longer he continues to fly under opposition radars, the healthier the Kangaroos’ prospects.
Getting outside run from Shaun Atley (ninth for running bounces), Sam Gibson (fifth for uncontested possession) and Daniel Wells will be paramount. Wells is deadly by foot ranking seventh in the competition for score assists, fifth for kicks inside fifty retained and leads the club in score involvements. His delivery makes the job for Drew Petrie, Lindsay Thomas and Aaron Black all the more easy.
Lindsay Thomas has been superb all season, running second in the Coleman medal, third for overall scoreboard impact and ninth for disposals inside fifty.
Key Players – St.Kilda
For the Saints, their level of success starts and ends with Nick Riewoldt who is in arguably career best form and has put together a statistical resume that is simply off the charts. The Saints’ skipper has had his way with all comers this year and leads the AFL in marks, uncontested marks, marks on the lead and sits top five for contested marks, goals, inside fifty targets, marks inside fifty, disposals inside fifty and scoreboard impact. 35.8% of all St. Kilda scores involve Nick Riewoldt to some degree which is the highest percentage among all players in the competition.
There is no doubt that Riewoldt will make his mark against the Kangaroos, limiting that impact will be priority number one for the back-six.
In regards to the Saints midfield prospects, Jack Steven and David Armitage have taken another step this season whilst Leigh Montagna is still producing quality usage ranking eleventh for effective kicks. Dylan Roberton has been a revelation down back, ranking tenth for groundball gets in defensive fifty, seventh for rebound fifties and sixth for running bounces.
Who will win and why?
All eyes will be on North response to some stinging criticism this week. This has to be a statement game for not only the confidence of the playing group, but also to prove that the Roos are still moving in the right direction.
From an experience perspective only Gold Coast, GWS, Melbourne and the two South Australian sides have played fewer games of AFL football as a collective unit.
Many clubs have gone before us with the same identical issue of failing to close out games and a number of those teams have gone on to have great success. Between 2005 and 2006, Collingwood had a 1-5 record in games decided by less than ten points; they played in a preliminary final a year later. Across 2004 and 2005 Hawthorn experienced a 0-6 record in single digit games; they won a final in 2006 and a flag in 2008.
Likewise before they created a dynasty, Geelong was 4-10 with a draw from 2004-2006 and won a premiership in 2007.
One of the greatest teams ever, the Brisbane Lions, recorded a 2-7 record from 1998-2001 in games decided by single digits; in 2001 they won the first of three straight premierships.
It is far too early to forecast whether or not this North group will be capable of reaching similar heights but it can be achieved. It all starts with playing both sides of the ball and four quarters of footy.
On Sunday the Roos will face a side that gave up sixty-eight points to the Bulldogs in a half despite the Dogs averaging just sixty-five points per game in their last twenty matches. This is a Saints outfit that is capable of beating quality opponents (we saw it recently against Carlton), but it is one which is weak in areas where North excels.
This week brings great expectation but also cause for celebration with two of our finest clubman in Harvey and Wells reaching significant milestones. The pair has brought so much to the club and will be thanked and appreciated throughout the day but when it comes to the focus on Sunday, Boomer himself summed it up best for all members during his press conference yesterday afternoon:
“With the situation we’re in right now, I couldn’t care whether it’s my first or 350th, I just want to win,” he said.
I’m with Boomer. I don’t care how it comes about, I just want to win.
Go Roos!
Tip: North Melbourne by 25-points
