Topics covered
1. Hawthorn key indicators
2. North Melbourne key indicators
3. Scoring and defensive capability
4. Who will win and why
5. Tip
After a disappointing loss to Brisbane, North finds itself in the familiar position of redemption. In a season riddled with unpredictability, the Kangaroos will look to emulate their early season form which saw them defeat three of the teams currently sitting in the top four.
Unlike years past the Kangaroos have stood tallest when hit with the underdog label and they will wear that tag again on Friday night. Leading into season 2014 it had been seven years since their last victories over Fremantle and Sydney, and Hawthorn presents a similar hurdle, having won the previous four encounters between the clubs.
Forecasting which North side will enter the arena has essentially become guesswork. It's not a question of whether the Kangaroos are capable - they are - it's about being adequately prepared and focused from that first bounce through to the final siren. With the sting of last Saturday still lingering and all the eyes on the big stage, intent and focus should be sky high.
Hawthorn key indicators
No side in the competition is better at dictating play than the Hawks. They lead the competition for disposal differential with the next ranked side 244 disposals in arrears. They've gained 2290 more metres than the next ranked side, sit second for time in possession and rank second for disposals in forward half with a differential of +560.
Hawthorn's ability to starve opponents of possession stems from its own crisp ball use. It sees the Hawks leading the competition in differentials for short kicks, effective kicks, turnovers by foot, uncontested possession and second for uncontested marks. What makes the task of halting Hawthorn even more difficult is its mindset to play on and brown nose stagnant play, reflected in its third ranked differential for mark play on percentage.
The less time an opposition has to set its zone, press or drop a loose back the more fractured its defensive setup and less resistant the path to goal. The flow-on effect is a Hawthorn side frequently navigating its way to the scoreboard. The Hawks have accumulated the most inside fifties, most goals and highest goal scoring efficiency of any side in the competition and they've done it largely absent of numerous best 22 commodities.
Flexibility and freshness through the middle of the ground has become paramount in today's game and the Hawks are one of the few sides who have embraced a deep core of versatile midfielders. In the last eight weeks, Hawthorn has registered eleven different players with fifty or more centre square involvements. It has paid dividends with the Hawks number one for contested possession and points from stoppages differential.
Fortunately for North, it is more than adequate defensively to counter attack when teams have a wealth of possession. It has forced the fourth most turnovers by foot of any side and fifth most intercepts. The ability to intercept the football at a high level is the sign of a good side with every team currently in the top eight ranking one-through-eight in this area. In the last three seasons only two sides were ranked outside the top eight for intercepts and still played finals. It goes hand in hand with success.
The Hawks will look to exploit the corridor as often as possible with no side generating more scoring punch from this avenue. The Kangaroos defensive setup should be ok allowing Hawthorn to navigate the football side to side for extended periods, then hoping to create a turnover or predictable entry inside fifty. North allows opponents the second most effective kicks and second highest number of uncontested marks. At face value, this appears negative but it actually has a reverse effect, provided players track back as a unit and fill their designed space. Forcing teams into the second highest kick to handball ratio in the competition works in the Kangaroos favour as it limits overlap and run and carry through the corridor. This is what brought North undone time and time again in 2013.
This is a North outfit drilled to never give up the corridor and once the defence is set the impact is undeniable, holding teams to the lowest scoring efficiency and third lowest goal scoring efficiency. It ranks behind only defensive juggernauts Sydney and Fremantle. The kicker of course is one blown assignment means the dominos fall, resulting in holes appearing the ground over.
Stopping Hawthorn isn't about limiting wealth of possession (although it helps) given it averages twenty-four more disposals than its opponents in losses this season. It's about winning first use, creating turnovers, starving transition and forcing slow predictable entries; areas the Kangaroos more than hold their own defensively.
Hawthorn win/loss splits
| Hawthorn | Turnover kicks | Contested possession | Inside 50's | Goal scoring efficiency | MPO% |
| Wins | -3.5 | +11.8 | +15.2 | +8.2% | +6.3% |
| Losses | +0.7 | -2 | -4 | -2.4% | -1% |
| North rank | 5th | 6th | 12th | 3rd | 9th |
North Melbourne key indicators
The importance of contested possession for North is the building block to four points. In wins this season, the Kangaroos have averaged 15.5 more contested possessions than their opponents which is the highest differential of any side in wins. In losses the differential drops to -13.
The same contested possession alignment with result holds true for Hawthorn. There's been eight quarters this season where Hawthorn was outscored by double digits; in seven of those quarters it lost or broke even in the contested possession count.
The top four sides in the competition rank inside the top six for contested possession differential, the good news for North is it's right in the mix of the elite sitting fifth.
Hawthorn quarters lost by double digits
| Round/quarter | Contested possession | Tackles | Points conceded via corridor | Margin |
| Round 2/Quarter 3 | 0 | -5 | 31 | 35 |
| Round 3/Quarter 4 | -6 | -6 | 33 | -11 |
| Round 5/Quarter 4 | -3 | -13 | 25 | -11 |
| Round 8/Quarter 1 | -14 | -4 | 20 | -18 |
| Round 8/Quarter 4 | 0 | -9 | 19 | -22 |
| Round 10/Quarter 1 | 8 | -3 | 24 | -11 |
| Round 10/Quarter 2 | -4 | +12 | 18 | -12 |
| Round 13/Quarter 3 | -6 | -13 | 32 | -13 |
| Average differential | -3.1 | -5.1 | 25.25 | -16.6 |
Unlike a number of sides, the Kangaroos don't mind flirting with risk and love to run and carry. Moving the football via handball as opposed to foot has split teams open on the counter attack and has devastating results when utilised through the corridor. Finding a means to implement overlap is critical as Hawthorn forces more turnovers by foot than any side and hold opponents to the lowest mark play on percentage behind its disciplined defensive zone. If North can break the lines with work rate and chains of movement by hand its chances of exposing the corridor are enhanced.
The focus on utilising the corridor matters because it's a sore point for the Hawks. In those eight quarters lost by double digits Hawthorn conceded no fewer than eighteen points via the corridor with opponents averaging over 25 points per quarter. The golden question is how good are the Kangaroos at finding the corridor? The top nine teams at generating scores via the corridor are the top nine teams on the ladder; North sits equal second with Port Adelaide.
| Team | Scores generated via corridor |
| Hawthorn | 280 |
| North Melbourne | 243 |
| Port Adelaide | 243 |
| Fremantle | 228 |
| Geelong | 225 |
| Adelaide | 223 |
| Gold Coast | 220 |
| Collingwood | 218 |
| Sydney | 217 |
Scoring and defensive capability
When it comes to generating scores, no side is more potent than Hawthorn. The Hawks average 116.7 points per game which leads the competition and ranks number one for both scores from stoppages and scores from turnovers differential.
Hawthorn scores via marks more than any other side but defensively it has been susceptible in two areas; limiting scores via the corridor (the importance of which we touched on earlier) and scores via marks. These two areas it ranks outside the top ten. As far as wins and losses are concerned Hawthorn beat up on its opposition regardless of how it's kick-starting scoring punch, but teams that got on top at the coalface had far more success.
| Hawthorn differentials | Scores from stoppages | Scores from turnovers |
| Wins | +27.2 | +22.7 |
| Losses | -16.3 | -4.3 |
North averages 85.7 points per game, sitting seventh for points from stoppages differential and eight for points from turnover differential. Teams that can press an advantage at stoppages trouble Hawthorn and this is an area where the Kangaroos sit second defensively. The last eight weeks has seen North Melbourne run a consistent and essentially exclusive core through their centre square. Any success starts with Todd Goldstein, Levi Greenwood, Ben Cunnington, Andrew Swallow and Nick Dal Santo doing damage at clearances.
| North differentials | Scores from stoppages | Scores from turnovers |
| Wins | +18.2 | +20 |
| Losses | -11 | -11.6 |
Locating targets inside fifty is often the toughest aspect of creating scoring opportunities and if wasteful, it can cost a team the four points.
Hawthorn has recorded the second most entries by foot and leads all-comers for long distance entries. Once the ball enters the ark, it more often than not results in a positive outcome with the Hawks number one for retain percentage and goal scoring efficiency.
The Kangaroos are the only side currently sitting inside the top eight to rank outside the top ten for forward fifty entries by foot, instead opting to generate the majority of scoring opportunities via general play. To its credit North does generate results when it opts for entries by foot, ranking second for scoring efficiency.
Defensively is where the Kangaroos excel, holding teams to the third lowest retain percentage, sixth lowest mark percentage and second lowest scoring efficiency. In Hawthorn's eight quarters lost by more than double digits this season, it broke even or had more entries by foot than their opponents on five occasions yet failed to hit more targets. It lost the marks inside fifty count and goal scoring efficiency differential seven of the eight times.
Defensive accountability has been the theme behind North's success this season and if the efforts against Sydney and Fremantle can be emulated, the numbers suggest the side will be rewarded on the scoreboard.
Hawthorn Quarters lost by double digits
| Round/Quarter | Kicks inside 50 | Marks inside 50 | Goal scoring efficiency | Margin |
| Round 2/Quarter 3 | +6 | -2 | -50% | -35 |
| Round 3/Quarter 4 | -4 | -4 | -1.10% | -11 |
| Round 5/Quarter 4 | +1 | -3 | -19.2% | -11 |
| Round 8/Quarter 1 | -14 | -4 | +10.4% | -18 |
| Round 8/Quarter 4 | -2 | 0 | -22.1% | -22 |
| Round 10/Quarter 1 | +1 | +2 | -17.9% | -11 |
| Round 10/Quarter 2 | 0 | -1 | -21.8% | -12 |
| Round 13/Quarter 3 | 0 | -3 | -17% | -13 |
| Average differential | -1.5 | -1.8 | -17.34% | -16.6 |
Who will win and why
North has proven on more than one occasion it can mix it with the prime premiership contenders. Its contested ball winning output, ability to generate scoring punch through the corridor and disciplined defence is the required tonic.
Unfortunately for the Kangaroos, simply having the necessary capabilities and recipe for success matters little if preparation and focus is absent.
The quarter by quarter data alone suggests we might have our victor as early as half time. Hawthorn posts an 11-0 record when leading at half time and 0-3 when trailing, whilst North is also undefeated at 6-0 and 2-6 when facing a half time deficit.
Slow starts have hurt North all year. The Kangaroos are -115 in first half points differential and +224 in second halves, although they've shown an impressive ability to press advantage or make a comeback after half time, the hole has often proved too deep to dig out of. Hawthorn has no such issue, outscoring teams by 275 points in first halves and 254 in second halves. If it gets the jump on North early it could very well be lights out.
The two meetings between the sides last season produced a pair of close shootouts with Hawthorn prevailing by three and fourteen points respectively. What plagued the Kangaroos was an inability to capitalise on opportunity. Across the two games, North produced 18 more inside fifties yet registered a -14.4% goal scoring efficiency. Hawthorn did the majority of damage via the corridor, sourcing 88 and 80 points in the two games to outscore the Kangaroos by 32 points.
If there's two standout areas North has improved this year, its limiting opposition transition through the corridor and restricting the ease at which its opponent hits the scoreboard.
In summing up, the three primary objectives for North are:
1. Keep Hawthorn under 100 points. The Hawks have a 2-3 record when held to under 100 points this season. Only three sides have managed to eclipse the century mark against the Kangaroos this year.
2. Isolate key forwards. When it comes to entries by foot, Hawthorn ranks outside the top ten defensively for mark percentage and earlier in the year, we saw the impact Tom Hawkins and Kurt Tippett had. Port Adelaide looked to use Jay Schulz in a similar fashion in its matchup but would finish with just three goals from marks against the Hawks. Instead its quality medium sized options Wingard, Gray, Monfries and Hartlett would contribute 97 points in a close win. North lacks the necessary cattle to emulate the Power operation. One of Petrie or Aaron Black must fire.
3. Own the corridor. The second area where Hawthorn ranks outside the top ten defensively is crucial if North is to kick a winning score. There's nothing sweeter than eyeing an open field when moving forward so it's imperative North operates both ways and restricts the space through the middle by forcing Hawthorn wide where scoring becomes much tougher. In eighteen quarters lost this season, Hawthorn recorded a lower goal scoring efficiency than their opponents seventeen times.
Tip: North Melbourne by 8 points
