NMFC.com.au had a look back to see if Harvey is a realistic contender.
The games were divided into four categories. Games with no chance of votes, unlikely chance, a likely chance and matches where he should be a certainty to poll.
No chance of votes
- Round 1 v Essendon (21 disposals, 1 goal)
- Round 4 v Sydney (15 disposals, 7 tackles)
- Round 5 v Collingwood (29 disposals, 1 goal)
- Round 7 v Gold Coast (19 disposals, 1 goal)
- Round 15 v Brisbane (23 disposals, 1 goal)
- Round 18 v Carlton (20 disposals, 2 goals)
Of the above six games, five of them resulted in losses. As is often the case in losses, the opposition had plenty of candidates for votes; candidates the umpires are usually drawn to. It's a rare case to see a player from a losing side poll votes unless it's a quality performance.
In the lone win (Round 4 v Sydney), Harvey was serviceable with 15 disposals and seven tackles. However the likes of Ben Cunnington, Leigh Adams, Daniel Wells and Scott Thompson are all ahead of him in the queue.
Unlikely chance
- Round 10 v Geelong (33 disposals)
- Round 11 v West Coast (27 disposals, 1 goal)
- Round 13 v Adelaide (31 disposals, 2 goals)
- Round 16 v Hawthorn (30 disposals)
This category covers Harvey's performances which were relatively good, but due to either a loss or teammates turning in better efforts, it means the veteran is unlikely to poll.
In the above four games Harvey averaged 25 possessions per match, so on an individual note he was valuable. However once we look down the following list, we see a host of players who the umpires may be more inclined to vote for.
v Geelong (NMFC loss): Jimmy Bartel (32 disposals, 2 goals), Tom Hawkins (4 goals), James Kelly (33 disposals), Levi Greenwood (33 disposals, 8 tackles, 9 clearances)
v West Coast (NMFC win): Nick Dal Santo (34 disposals), Ben Cunnington (33 disposals, 6 tackles), Levi Greenwood (33 disposals, 6 inside 50’s), Matt Priddis (32 disposals, 2 goals)
v Adelaide (NMFC loss): Scott Thompson (Adelaide 30 disposals, 9 tackles, 7 clearances), Brodie Smith (29 disposals, 6 rebound 50’s), Sam Kerridge (4 goals), Levi Greenwood (32 disposals)
v Hawthorn (NMFC win): Jack Gunston (6 goals), Drew Petrie (5 goals), Nick Dal Santo (36 disposals), Lachlan Hansen (28 disposals, 14 marks)
Likely chance of votes
- Round 12 v Richmond (25 disposals, 3 goals)
- Round 14 v Melbourne (28 disposals, 1 goal)
- Round 17 v St Kilda (27 disposals, 2 goals)
Now we're left with seven games where Harvey is a contender to poll. Starting with the 'likely' category, there are three matches in which Harvey wasn't the best person on the ground, but is very much in the mix for the lesser votes.
In Round 12 against Richmond, Todd Goldstein had 43 hit-outs, 20 disposals and a goal. While he arguably had the biggest influence from an individual standpoint, Harvey was right in the next tier of players.
Harvey kicked three goals - two in the second half as North ran rampant - which should have caught the eyes of the umpires. Drew Petrie and Dustin Martin also kicked four goals each, but Harvey's 28 disposals and the win, should give him an advantage.
Harvey could get as many as two votes, with Levi Greenwood and Andrew Swallow also in the frame.
The Melbourne clash in Round 14 saw Bernie Vince collect 41 disposals and kick three goals to be clearly best on ground, a rare sight in a losing team. Following Vince's game, there is a large cluster of players with claims for votes; Harvey right towards the front of them.
North's victory will give Harvey an advantage, with Greenwood (30 disposals, 2 goals) also in the mix.
The win over St Kilda a fortnight ago will likely see the three vote-getters come from an even pool of four; Harvey, Sam Wright, Goldstein and David Armitage.
Each of the quartet has claims. Harvey's run and line-breaking on a low scoring afternoon likely stood out to the umpires after Goldstein's work in the ruck.
v Richmond
Best case scenario: 2 votes
v Melbourne
Best case scenario: 2 votes
v St Kilda
Best case scenario: 3 votes
Near certainty
- Round 2 v Western Bulldogs (25 disposals, 3 goals)
- Round 3 v Port Adelaide (23 disposals, 3 goals)
- Round 6 v Fremantle (29 disposals)
- Round 9 v Brisbane (39 disposals, 2 goals)
With a potential seven votes already, we arrive at the four games in which Harvey should certainly poll votes.
Against the Bulldogs in Round 2, Harvey was best on ground. It was a tight game for two and a half quarters and certainly not one for the purists. North was able to break away late, largely due to Harvey's individual brilliance. He had 25 disposals and three goals.
The following week against Port Adelaide, Harvey was just as spectacular. In arguably North's best win of the season, he again stood up in crunch time, an asset which has consistently been rewarded with votes. Harvey, along with Cunnington, was the best on the field.
Three weeks later, Harvey travelled to Patersons Stadium for the much anticipated rematch with Fremantle and Ryan Crowley.
While Crowley took the points in 2013, Harvey bounced back with a scintillating first three quarters. He had 29 disposals and was involved in the majority of North's scoring shots. If the game ended at three quarter time, he would have the three votes locked up.
However he went without a disposal in the final term as the Kangaroos used an even team performance to run over the top of Fremantle. Sam Gibson had 31 disposals and two goals, while Nathan Fyfe had 33 disposals, 10 clearances and 2 goals for the Dockers. Harvey still has a chance for the three votes, but it wouldn't be surprising if he ended with either one or two instead.
In Round 9 against Brisbane, Harvey was simply unstoppable. He had 39 disposals, six inside 50s, six clearances and two goals on the way to an 87-point victory for the Roos. Much like the Bulldogs victory in Round 2, Harvey was clearly the best on ground on this day and should collect another three votes.
v Western Bulldogs
Best case scenario: 3 votes
v Port Adelaide
Best case scenario: 3 votes
v Fremantle
Best case scenario: 3 votes
v Brisbane
Best case scenario: 3 votes
So with a best case scenario in every game, NMFC.com.au has Harvey sitting on 19 votes with five matches to go. Any vote total over 25 at the end of the season would have the 36-year-old in serious contention for a historic night.
The injury to Gary Ablett has thrown the field wide open, meaning the final winning total may be significantly lower than previous seasons. Adam Cooney's 24 votes in 2008 is the lowest total in the last decade, and a similar amount may be enough this season.
