8. North Melbourne
52 points (13 wins, eight losses), 111.58 per cent
Round 23:
Greater Western Sydney at Skoda Stadium
Sunday's capitulation against Fremantle leaves the Roos staring up at seven teams. However, their trip to Skoda Stadium offers an excellent opportunity to leapfrog Fremantle and avoid a possible trip to Perth.
Will finish sixth if:
- They win AND make up their percentage deficits to Geelong and Freo AND the Cats lose to the Swans
- They win by enough to overhaul Fremantle but not Geelong
- They lose
- They win by an insufficient margin to overhaul one of Fremantle or Geelong
Where will North finish? Have your say below.
1. Hawthorn
64 points (16 wins, five losses) 155.38 per cent
Round 23:
West Coast at the MCG
Saturday's thriller at the SCG vaulted the Hawks to the top of the ladder with a brilliant victory on Saturday night. Top spot is now theirs to lose.
Will finish top if:
- They beat West Coast
- They lose to the Eagles AND EITHER the Crows defeat Gold Coast OR the Swans beat Geelong
- They win narrowly AND the Swans defeat the Cats by more than 130 points
- The Hawks will finish third and surrender a home qualifying final if they lose AND both the Crows and Swans win
Predict how the 2012 season will play out using the official AFL ladder & finals predictor
2. Sydney Swans
64 points (16 wins, five losses), 145.81 per cent
Round 23:
Geelong at Simonds Stadium
Saturday's loss leaves percentage the only buffer between the Swans and third-placed Adelaide. The daunting prospect of a trip to the Cattery makes a third-placed finish the likeliest scenario, although the Swans did win in Geelong in the same round last season.
Will finish top if:
- They win AND the Hawks lose
- They win AND one of Hawthorn or Adelaide loses
- The Swans will travel in week one of the finals if they lose AND Adelaide wins. In that scenario they could finish third or as low as fourth, if West Coast and Adelaide both win.
3. Adelaide
64 points (16 wins, five losses) 128.46 per cent
Round 23:
Gold Coast at AAMI Stadium
The Swans' difficult assignment makes Adelaide favourite to host a qualifying final. Should the Swans get up in Geelong, the Crows may live to rue last week's banana skin loss to the Brisbane Lions.
Will finish top if:
- They win AND both Hawthorn and the Swans lose
- They win AND one of Hawthorn and the Swans loses
- They win AND both Hawthorn and the Swans win. Or if they lose AND West Coast loses.
- The Crows will drop to fourth if they lose AND the Eagles win. A calamitous percentage drop would be required for them to slip below Collingwood.
4. West Coast
60 points (15 wins, six losses) 126.99 per cent
Round 23:
Hawthorn at the MCG
The Eagles proved their worth with a rousing victory over an out of sorts Collingwood. The double chance is in their hands, but lose and they could face a cut-throat elimination final against Fremantle.
Will finish fourth if:
- They beat the Hawks AND Adelaide wins
- They lose AND the Magpies defeat Essendon
- The Eagles will finish third if they win AND the Crows lose to the Suns
- They will slip to sixth if they are thumped at the MCG AND Geelong annihilates the Swans AND Collingwood wins
5. Collingwood
60 points (15 wins, six losses) 115.31 per cent
Round 23:
Essendon at the MCG
The Pies looked flat against the Eagles on Saturday night and the loss leaves them hoping West Coast loses next week. Their twin towers in Travis Cloke and Chris Dawes are off the boil and ruckman Darren Jolly's absence is a worry so close to September.
Will finish fourth if:
- They beat Essendon AND the Hawks beat the Eagles
- They win AND the Eagles beat the Hawks
- They lose AND the Swans beat Geelong
- The Pies will slide to sixth if they lose to Essendon AND Geelong wins
6. Geelong
56 points (14 wins, seven losses), 115.98 per cent
Round 23:
Sydney Swans at Simonds Stadium
The Cats went through the motions against the Dogs, and now only a loss on home turf can deny them an elimination final in Melbourne.
Will finish fifth if:
- They beat the Swans AND Collingwood loses to the Bombers AND the Eagles lose to Hawthorn
- They win AND Collingwood wins
- They lose AND neither Fremantle nor North Melbourne makes up their percentage deficit to the Cats
- The Cats will slide to seventh if they lose AND either Freo or North wins by enough to overhaul Geelong's percentage. If both do so AND the Cats lose, they will finish eighth.
- In the Cats' worst case scenario, they lose AND are overhauled by Fremantle but not North Melbourne. That will leave them seventh and facing a cut-throat final at Patersons Stadium.
7. Fremantle
52 points (13 wins, eight losses) 112.36 per cent
Round 23:
Melbourne at Patersons Stadium
Not even Matthew Pavlich's late withdrawal could prevent Freo securing a finals berth with an electrifying win over North Melbourne. The sub-plot to next week's fixtures will be percentage, with the Roos in the box seat thanks to a match-up with Greater Western Sydney.
Will finish sixth if:
- They beat Melbourne by enough to overtake the Cats AND the Cats lose to the Swans AND North Melbourne fails to make up its percentage gap to Fremantle
- They win AND the Kangaroos win by enough to make up their percentage deficit to the Roos. Or if they lose AND North Melbourne win.
- Win or lose, Freo will finish seventh if its result is mirrored by the results of both Geelong and North Melbourne, and the clubs' percentages remain unchanged relative to each other.
