WE KNOW the race for the premiership opened far wider this weekend than Chris Scott's mouth does after an umpiring injustice.
 
And that reading the form nowadays is more difficult than assessing a Melbourne Cup field full of internationals.
 
So it's time to narrow down the criteria to look at the contenders' form in the past four weeks.
 
And to examine how the top nine teams in the competition - the only legitimate contenders after Essendon and St Kilda lost on the weekend - have performed against each other throughout the year.
 
Top of the ladder remains the Sydney Swans' domain, a position it has held for eight rounds in 2012 and every week since the end of round 14. It has won six from eight against teams in the top half of the ladder but has Hawthorn and Geelong in the final two weeks to earn top spot. That's a good spot to start a finals series - five minor premiers have won the flag in the 12 premierships decided since the modern final eight system was introduced in 2000.
 
No wonder it's working well together.
 
With just two games remaining nine Swans have played every game. While such a state of affairs is common to Sydney it represents a different approach to man management to the one the Cats, with a team full of veterans, took on its path to last year's flag. The Swans have only used 31 players in 2012 - the lowest tally in the competition.
 
In the past month the Swans have scored 12.7 per cent more often than its opposition once entering its forward 50. That's an area where it stands head and shoulders above the rest. Sydney is a not a big marking team, one query in September, but it uses the ball well by hand in tight. Those quick hands are hard to stop.

Reality check


Hawthorn is premiership favourite but it remains incapable of beating Geelong, and has not beaten the Swans or the Eagles - its opposition in the final two rounds. It does not deserve favouritism unless it gets the job done in the last two weeks. However it has good form in the past month, its kicking prowess well known. It leads the contested possession differential (+15.8) and inside 50s (+19.8) since round 18.
 
It plays football in a way few -if any teams - have done before and a hungry 'Buddy' is about to return.
 
Adelaide is the biggest query of the top five because it has won just half of its 10 games against the top nine teams, and its form in the past month would place it 11th in that time. It is the only team in the top nine with recent form (rounds 18-21) placing it below eighth. It is ranked just 14th in contested possession differentials - one of its strengths up until round 18 - in the past month. Hawthorn, Fremantle, Collingwood, the Sydney Swans, Carlton and North Melbourne sit in the top eight in that category in that time so it remains an important statistic.
 
Adelaide still leads the competition for the clearance differential in the past month so the wheels remain on. 
 
Collingwood has won six of its 11 games against the top nine teams and is capable. Its kicking efficiency has let it down in the past month - a 6.2 per cent differential for ineffective kicks. The Pies are taking marks inside 50 and contested marks but are 13th in the uncontested marks differential, an indication their run and ball use have declined. They've lost to Hawthorn twice and Carlton twice. But the Swans can't beat the Magpies (its last win against Collingwood was in 2005) so a trip to the harbour town in week one of the finals would hold no fears.
 
The Eagles have been good, and bad, in patches. The slump - caused by injury - appears to be nearing its end and they can finish top four if they beat Collingwood and Hawthorn in the final two rounds. They have won 60 per cent of their games against the top nine teams, losing three in succession midway through the season. In the past month, the Eagles disposal efficiency has improved. It must get better at the stoppages and hopefully regain some of its attacking muscle with Josh Kennedy returning.
 
North Melbourne is the only team in contention to have won its past four, helped by a goalkicking accuracy of 60 per cent and kicking with 12.4 per cent more efficiency than their direct opposition. Apart from that category, the Kangaroos are ranked number one for the differentials in total handballs, disposal efficiency and uncontested marks in the past four weeks.
 
It's hard to see the Kangaroos playing any better, but it's also difficult to see them stopping. A negative is just four wins from eight in games against the other top nine teams.
 
While Geelong's numbers are all over the place, they are proven winners and have beaten Hawthorn and Adelaide and pushed West Coast in the past month. The Cats are tackling like madmen (second behind Carlton in the past month) and have Tom Hawkins taking marks inside 50 (16 goals in the past month).
 
If the Cats planned to peak at the right time, they've planned well. The Cats remain a query against the best with just four wins in 11 games (two of the victories by two points against the Hawks) against the teams in the top half of the ladder.
 
Fremantle and Carlton appear to be fighting for eighth spot, and both having legitimate claims to the position. Carlton leads the competition in the tackle differential since round 18, while Fremantle is second for contested possession differential in that period. Both are good in those categories against the top nine teams but between them (Fremantle, 2 from 9, and Carlton, 3 from 9) have just five wins from 18 games against other top nine teams.
 
Good news for both clubs is that six winners of the first elimination final since 2000 have been the eighth team. So a battle for eighth might become a chance to move through to week two of the finals.
 
If all that assessment fails to help, return to the historical indicator of premiership success: the top four for least points conceded. At this stage the Sydney Swans, Hawthorn, Fremantle and Collingwood fill the top four spots for that category.
 
And in two weeks time remember that every premiership team has come from the top four.
 
Basic is best. The top team should go in favourites. It's Sydney's spot to lose.
 
If you think the finals have started two weeks ahead of time, you may be right.
 
The whips are cracking.
 
Stats supplied by Champion Data