1. Richmond

64 points (16 wins, four losses), 139.7 per cent
It's all about fine tuning for the Tigers over the final fortnight after they wrapped up a coveted MCG fixture in week one of the finals with the demolition of Gold Coast. Essendon poses a legitimate test on Friday night, with the Bombers one of the League's in-form teams over the past 12 weeks. The big plus in the win over the Suns was seeing Dion Prestia, Bachar Houli and Jack Graham get some game time after injuries and plenty of Tigers will have finals spots to play for over the next two matches. - Michael Whiting

The run home
R22: Essendon @ MCG
R23: Western Bulldogs @ MCG

2. West Coast

60 points (15 wins, five losses), 123.4 per cent
Jeremy McGovern's goal after the siren gave the Eagles a thrilling four-point win over Port Adelaide on Saturday – despite not leading at any point during the game. They need one win from their remaining two games to assure themselves of second spot, and two home finals. Melbourne in Perth next week will be another huge challenge. The Eagles will be favourites to beat Brisbane at the Gabba in round 23, however the Lions have shown they are capable of an upset. The Eagles will hope they get star forward Josh Kennedy back from a shin injury. - Lee Gaskin

The run home
R22: Melbourne @ Optus Stadium
R23: Brisbane @ Gabba

3. Greater Western Sydney

54 points (13 wins, six losses, one draw), 120.4 per cent
The injuries keep piling up but importantly for the Giants they also keep winning. Next week's Sydney derby is a massive game and like it has done all season, GWS will need contributions from all 22 players to keep momentum going. They've won nine of their last 10 games but they might need to win their round 23 clash with Melbourne at the MCG to seal a top four spot and the vital double chance. - Adam Curley

The run home
R22: Sydney @ Spotless Stadium
R23: Melbourne @ MCG

52 points (13 wins, seven losses), 121.2 per cent
The double chance is the Hawks' to lose. Wins against the Saints and Swans will secure a top-four finish – unless the Pies gain more than three per cent. They could edge as high as third and a trip to Perth to face West Coast, if the Giants drop a game. Fighting for a finals berth last week, the Hawks are now all but certain to play in September after North Melbourne and Geelong suffered losses in round 21. - Mitch Cleary

The run home
R22: St Kilda @ Etihad Stadium
R23: Sydney @ SCG

5. Collingwood

52 points (13 wins, seven losses), 118.3 per cent
Next week's clash with Port Adelaide looms as even more significant for both teams following the weekend's results. A win for the Pies and the top four is a real chance, and a loss for the Power could see Ken Hinkley's men missing the finals altogether. The Pies have got a road trip to Perth to face Fremantle in round 23, and a win next Saturday will all but cement them in the top eight and give them the chance to make top four a reality the following week. - Jennifer Phelan

The run home
R22: Port Adelaide @ MCG
R23: Fremantle @ Optus Stadium 

6. Sydney

52 points (13 wins, seven losses), 109.7 per cent
The Swans climbed from eighth to sixth with their brave win over Melbourne, showing the trademark mental toughness that has taken them to seven consecutive finals series under coach John Longmire. Their low percentage – worse than that of every top-eight team and ninth-placed Geelong – means their finals spot is not yet locked in. They have a tough final two games as well, but given their ability to find a way when their backs are against the wall who would bet against them taking part in yet another September series? - Nick Bowen

The run home
R22: Greater Western Sydney @ Spotless Stadium
R23: Hawthorn @ SCG 

48 points (12 wins, eight losses), 130.5 per cent
Despite their strong percentage – second only to ladder-leader Richmond – the Demons' loss to Sydney suddenly has their bid to return to the finals for the first time since 2006 looking shaky. Their destiny remains in their own hands, but Geelong, North Melbourne and Essendon are circling should they slip up. They will have to win at least one of their remaining two games to be assured of September action, which will require them to beat a top-eight team for the first time this year. - Nick Bowen

The run home
R22: West Coast @ Optus Stadium
R23: Greater Western Sydney @ MCG 

8. Port Adelaide

48 points (12 wins, eight losses), 113.9 per cent
Two losses by under a goal in the past fortnight leaves the Power in danger of missing the finals. First, it was a three-point loss in Showdown 45, and then Jeremy McGovern kicked the match-winning goal after the siren in their four-point loss to West Coast on Saturday. To make matters worse, the Power will be without key forward Charlie Dixon for the rest of the season with a serious ankle injury, while ruckman Paddy Ryder (hip flexor) would be considered unlikely. Defender Dan Houston (concussion) is also in doubt. The Power have won six of their past seven games against Collingwood and three of four at the MCG. Win that, and it's Essendon at Adelaide Oval on Friday night in round 23 with finals on the line. - Lee Gaskin

The run home
R22: Collingwood @ MCG
R23: Essendon @ Adelaide Oval

9. Geelong 

44 points (11 wins, nine losses), 117.2 per cent
The Cats' destiny is now in the hands of others. While Chris Scott admitted he had done the AFL.com.au ladder predictor "500 times", he will spend the week searching for ways into the eight before hosting the Dockers. Strong percentage from big wins earlier in the season will assist, but the Cats simply need to win in the final two rounds to keep the dream alive. They'll then need to rely on Port Adelaide losing to one of Collingwood or Essendon, or Melbourne losing to both West Coast and Greater Western Sydney to scrape in. - Mitch Cleary

The run home
R22: Fremantle @ GMHBA Stadium
R23: Gold Coast @ GMHBA Stadium

10. North Melbourne

44 points (11 wins, nine losses), 109.1 per cent
That loss to the Western Bulldogs hurts. North now has to rely on other results to fall its way, with a flight to South Australia always a tough ask as the Roos face Adelaide next week. However, with the Crows out of finals contention, their motivation might wane slightly and boost Brad Scott's side's chances. The final match against St Kilda looks relatively simple, with the Saints having fallen away as their horror year draws to a close. - Dinny Navaratnam

The run home
R22: Adelaide @ Adelaide Oval
R23: St Kilda @ Etihad Stadium11. Essendon

11. Essendon

44 points (11 wins, nine losses), 104.8 per cent
A finals appearance is still a mathematical possibility but remains a highly implausible prospect. The Bombers are dreaming of producing a miraculous fortnight to sneak into the top eight, but the dream most likely ends on Friday night when they face powerhouse Richmond, which has won its past 19 games at the MCG – a record. - Ben Collins

The run home
R22: Richmond @ MCG
R23: Port Adelaide @ Adelaide Oval 

12. Adelaide 

40 points (10 wins, 10 losses), 97.9 per cent
Only a miracle can save the Crows, but they need about five of them. For a team to play off in a Grand Final one year and miss the finals altogether the next is a massive fall and coach Don Pyke and his club will face plenty of scrutiny over summer. They'll probably win the next two but it's going to be a long off-season. - Adam Curley

The run home
R22: North Melbourne @ Adelaide Oval
R23: Carlton @ Etihad Stadium