12. North Melbourne
20 points (five wins, eight losses) 114.2 per cent

Three games outside the top eight, the Roos need a minor miracle to make the finals. Their cause is not helped by a draw that includes clashes with the current top three teams, Hawthorn, Geelong and Essendon. However, the Roos will take confidence knowing they were in a similar position last season and flew home 10-2 to reach the finals for the first time since 2008.

The run home:
Rd 15: Richmond at the MCG
Rd 16: Brisbane Lions at the Gabba
Rd 17: Carlton at Etihad Stadium
Rd 18: Melbourne at Etihad Stadium
Rd 19: Geelong at Etihad Stadium
Rd 20: Adelaide at AAMI Stadium
Rd 21: Essendon at Etihad Stadium
Rd 22: Hawthorn at Etihad Stadium
Rd 23: Collingwood at the MCG

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1. Hawthorn
48 points (12 wins, one loss) 145 per cent

Unbeaten since the season's opening round, the Hawks face a tricky run home and will have to work hard to keep top spot. Will gain a firmer hold on a home qualifying final if they can break the drought against Geelong next week. Round 18 against Essendon and round 22 against the Swans shape as the other big ones.

The run home:
Rd 15: Geelong at the MCG
Rd 16: Port Adelaide at AAMI Stadium
Rd 17: Western Bulldogs at Aurora Stadium
Rd 18: Essendon at Etihad Stadium
Rd 19: Richmond at the MCG
Rd 20: St Kilda at Etihad Stadium
Rd 21: Collingwood at the MCG
Rd 22: North Melbourne at Etihad Stadium
Rd 23: Sydney Swans at ANZ Stadium

2. Geelong
44 points (11 wins, two losses) 128.8 per cent

The Cats are sitting pretty in the top two, and with five more games to come at Simonds Stadium they are a very good chance to still be there at the end of the home and away season. Their games against fellow premiership aspirants Hawthorn and the Sydney Swans will be crucial.

The run home:
Rd 15: Hawthorn at the MCG
Rd 16: Melbourne at Simonds Stadium
Rd 17: Adelaide at AAMI Stadium
Rd 18: St Kilda at Simonds Stadium
Rd 19: North Melbourne at Etihad Stadium
Rd 20: Port Adelaide at Simonds Stadium
Rd 21: West Coast at Patersons Stadium
Rd 22: Sydney Swans at Simonds Stadium
Rd 23: Brisbane Lions at Simonds Stadium

3. Essendon
40 points (10 wins, three losses) 129.5 per cent

The Bombers are headed to the finals and could go a long way to sealing a top-four spot in the next three weeks with games they will be expected to win. Thereafter the Bombers face a number of traditional rivals in some big games. But if the next three weeks go well, James Hird's men should need only a couple of wins in last batch of games to grab that double chance. The round-18 clash with Hawthorn could decide a top-two position.

The run home:
Rd 15: Port Adelaide at Etihad Stadium
Rd 16: Western Bulldogs at Etihad Stadium
Rd 17: Greater Western Sydney at Skoda Stadium
Rd 18: Hawthorn at Etihad Stadium
Rd 19: Collingwood at the MCG
Rd 20: West Coast at Etihad Stadium
Rd 21: North Melbourne at Etihad Stadium
Rd 22: Carlton at the MCG
Rd 23: Richmond at the MCG

4. Sydney Swans
38 points (nine wins, three losses, one draw) 131.2 per cent

Friday night's tight victory over Carlton was important for the premiers, who rebounded from their upset defeat to Port Adelaide to remain right in the hunt for the top four. Winnable games against Melbourne and Greater Western Sydney are up next before a trip west to meet the Eagles. The Swans then face a tough run home that mirrors last year's entry to the finals, with Collingwood, Geelong and Hawthorn on the agenda in three of their final four games.

The run home:
Rd 15: Melbourne at the MCG
Rd 16: Greater Western Sydney at the SCG
Rd 17: West Coast at Patersons Stadium
Rd 18: Richmond at the SCG
Rd 19: Western Bulldogs at Etihad Stadium
Rd 20: Collingwood at ANZ Stadium
Rd 21: St Kilda at the SCG
Rd 22: Geelong at Simonds Stadium
Rd 23: Hawthorn at ANZ Stadium

5. Fremantle
38 points (nine wins, three losses, one draw) 124.5 per cent

Dockers fans are confident their team will finish the minor rounds in the top two for the first time, and it's easy to see why. The only contests that appear to present issues for Freo are those against Richmond at the MCG, Carlton at Etihad Stadium a fortnight later in round 17, and perhaps the round-16 derby against West Coast. They face St Kilda twice and have easy-looking outings against Greater Western Sydney and Melbourne.

The run home:
Rd 15: St Kilda at Patersons Stadium
Rd 16: West Coast at Patersons Stadium
Rd 17: Richmond at the MCG
Rd 18: Adelaide at Patersons Stadium
Rd 19: Carlton at Etihad Stadium
Rd 20: Greater Western Sydney at Patersons Stadium
Rd 21: Melbourne at the MCG
Rd 22: Port Adelaide at Patersons Stadium
Rd 23: St Kilda at Etihad Stadium

Fremantle remains on target for a top-two spot despite Saturday night's defeat at the Cattery.

6. Richmond
36 points (nine wins, four losses) 124.4 per cent

With Sunday's demolition of St Kilda the Tigers are entrenched in the eight and likely to play finals for the first time since 2001. Over half their remaining games look very winnable, although the round 16 trip to Cairns is one that will remind fans how quickly good positions can be squandered. Round 23's clash against the Bombers shapes as a tasty entrée to September.

The run home:
Rd 15: North Melbourne at Etihad Stadium
Rd 16: Gold Coast at Cazalys Stadium
Rd 17: Fremantle at the MCG
Rd 18: Sydney Swans at the SCG
Rd 19: Hawthorn at the MCG
Rd 20: Brisbane Lions at the MCG
Rd 21: Carlton at the MCG
Rd 22: Greater Western Sydney at Skoda Stadium
Rd 23: Essendon at the MCG

7. Port Adelaide
32 points (eight wins, five losses) 118.2 per cent

As unlikely as it seemed in the pre-season, the Power have cemented themselves in the eight on the back of two huge wins against the Sydney Swans and Collingwood. Their ability to sustain their defensive intensity for the rest of the season will determine whether they play finals football or miss out. With at least three should-win games (against the Saints, Lions and Suns) and three more on home turf, destiny is in the Power's hands.

The run home:
Rd 15: Essendon at Etihad Stadium
Rd 16: Hawthorn at AAMI Stadium
Rd 17: St Kilda at Etihad Stadium
Rd 18: Brisbane Lions at AAMI Stadium
Rd 19: Adelaide at AAMI Stadium
Rd 20: Geelong at Simonds Stadium
Rd 21: Gold Coast at AAMI Stadium
Rd 22: Fremantle at Patersons Stadium
Rd 23: Carlton at AAMI Stadium

8. Collingwood
32 points (eight wins, five losses) 104.8 per cent

It seems almost inconceivable that that the Magpies could miss the finals this year, but that prospect has become more than a distinct possibility given their inconsistency and a challenging second-half fixture. The Pies face return clashes with top sides Hawthorn, the Swans and Essendon – who belted them by an average of 49 points the first time around – and even a trip to the Gold Coast doesn't look so cruisy. The Pies' chances could boil down to tricky MCG clashes with West Coast and North Melbourne in the last two rounds.

The run home:
Rd 15: Carlton at the MCG
Rd 16: Adelaide at the MCG
Rd 17: Gold Coast at Metricon Stadium
Rd 18: Greater Western Sydney at the MCG
Rd 19: Essendon at the MCG
Rd 20: Sydney Swans at ANZ Stadium
Rd 21: Hawthorn at the MCG
Rd 22: West Coast at the MCG
Rd 23: North Melbourne at the MCG

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9. Carlton
24 points (six wins, seven losses) 113.9 per cent

The Blues have lost three games on the trot to find themselves two games outside the eight and in a logjam with West Coast and Adelaide. The Mick Malthouse grudge match MK II next week will be pivotal, while Carlton must make a good fist of some very winnable games. Their final three matches against Richmond, Essendon and Port Adelaide could determine their finals fate.

The run home:
Rd 15: Collingwood at the MCG
Rd 16: St Kilda at Etihad Stadium
Rd 17: North Melbourne at Etihad Stadium
Rd 18: Gold Coast at Metricon Stadium
Rd 19: Fremantle at Etihad Stadium
Rd 20: Western Bulldogs at Etihad Stadium
Rd 21: Richmond at the MCG
Rd 22: Essendon at the MCG
Rd 23: Port Adelaide at AAMI Stadium

10. West Coast
24 points (six wins, seven losses) 110 per cent

The Eagles believe they can win each of their last nine matches. They might need to win at least seven, if not eight, to make the finals. West Coast has to bank four wins against Adelaide (twice), the Bulldogs and Gold Coast. The other five matches will be very tough. Five matches at home does not look as appealing as it would have in previous years given the Eagles have lost five of seven at Patersons this season.

The run home:
Rd 15: Adelaide at AAMI Stadium
Rd 16: Fremantle at Patersons Stadium
Rd 17: Sydney Swans at Patersons Stadium
Rd 18: Western Bulldogs at Etihad Stadium
Rd 19: Gold Coast at Patersons Stadium
Rd 20: Essendon at Etihad Stadium
Rd 21: Geelong at Patersons Stadium
Rd 22: Collingwood at the MCG
Rd 23: Adelaide at Patersons Stadium

11. Adelaide
24 points (six wins, seven losses) 105.7 per cent

The fight for a finals berth continues for last year's preliminary finalists but they're still two wins out of the eight with nine games remaining. They're still a way off the level they set last year though and with games against two premiership contenders and two Western Australian road trips, finals football is just about out of reach.

The run home:
Rd 15: West Coast at AAMI Stadium
Rd 16: Collingwood at the MCG
Rd 17: Geelong at AAMI Stadium
Rd 18: Fremantle at Patersons Stadium
Rd 19: Port Adelaide at AAMI Stadium
Rd 20: North Melbourne at AAMI Stadium
Rd 21: Western Bulldogs at Etihad Stadium
Rd 22: Melbourne at AAMI Stadium
Rd 23: West Coast at Patersons Stadium

13. Gold Coast
20 points (five wins, eight losses) 90.9 per cent

Saturday's loss to Adelaide leaves the Suns with a mountain to climb, needing to win seven or maybe eight of their final nine matches to play finals. They have the easiest draw of any team in the competition, and with a friendly final month in particular, could have their season determined in the next fortnight. Appointments with the Brisbane Lions and Richmond are must-win matches.

The run home:
Rd 15: Brisbane Lions at the Gabba
Rd 16: Richmond at Cazalys Stadium
Rd 17: Collingwood at Metricon Stadium
Rd 18: Carlton at Metricon Stadium
Rd 19: West Coast at Patersons Stadium
Rd 20: Melbourne at Metricon Stadium
Rd 21: Port Adelaide at AAMI Stadium
Rd 22: St Kilda at Etihad Stadium
Rd 23: Greater Western Sydney at Metricon Stadium