As North Melbourne prepares to take on the only team it hasn’t previously played in 2013, it can take lessons from what Essendon’s opponents have done in the last three weeks.

Collingwood, Hawthorn and West Coast have all managed to defeat the Bombers following a formula that is easier said than done, but basic in its explanation: restrict Essendon’s uncontested disposal and own the corridor.

In the first 17 rounds of the season, Essendon controlled possession around the outside of the packs and it resulted in the ball more often than not going in its direction.

In the last three weeks, this has changed significantly and the supply has dried up for the forwards.
 

RoundUncontested marksUncontested possessionInside 50’s
1-1789.2233.157.4
18-2075.7223.348.7
Differential-13.5-9.8-8.7


The downturn in inside 50’s has not been ideal as the Bombers deal with injuries to their first choice forward line.

Michael Hurley has missed the last fortnight, while Stewart Crameri has been regaining match fitness at VFL level.

With Jake Carlisle needed down back more often than not, it has been left to Tom Bellchambers to hold the fort in the forward line.

While the big man is a more than capable player, the lack of variety without regular key targets has shown in how often Essendon has kicked goals upon entering its forward 50.  
 

RoundScore from inside 50 (%)Goal from inside 50 (%)
1-1739.6%22.5
18-2037%17.8
Differential-2.6%-4.7%


This is relevant to North because over the last three weeks it has been the stingiest side in the competition in allowing opponents to convert inside 50’s to scoring shots or goals.

It’s an area the Kangaroos will look to gain an advantage again this week.
 

North Melbourne (conceded)Score from inside 50 (%)Goal from inside 50 (%)
AFL average41.723.1
Round 18-2032.917.1
Differential-8.8%-6%


In second halves over the last three weeks, the Magpies, Hawks and Eagles all kicked very accurately, proving a key to running away from the Bombers.
 

Scores v EssendonQuarter 3Quarter 4
Round 18-2018.8.11618.7.115
Differential-50 points-66 points


This isn’t a coincidence that all three teams have kicked straight against Essendon in consecutive weeks. Getting into prime positions for a shot is pivotal.

The following scoring chart shows every scoring shot against Essendon in the second half of its last three games combined.
 


Of the 48 total scoring shots, more than three quarters of them have come from what Champion Data terms as ‘the corridor’.

In North Melbourne’s games at Etihad Stadium in 2013, it sits right on league average for inside 50 entries through the middle of the ground.

It could be an area it looks to increase on Saturday as the game goes on, especially given the Bombers’ recent fortunes in defence.
 

Forward 50 entriesFrom middle (%)
201341
AFL average41.2
Differential-0.2%