NMFC.com.au called upon Scott Barby to write this week’s Definitive Preview. The opinions of Scott are his own and do not reflect those of North Melbourne.

Follow Scott on Twitter: @ScottyBarby

The stakes this Saturday night will be high as North Melbourne looks to solidify its finals prospects against a Cats outfit which sits equal top of the ladder.

As the seesaw results continue for the Kangaroos, a loss to Geelong would be the first time they’ve experienced back to back losses this season, making the chance of dropping from the top eight a possibility. Similar risks loom for the Cats. They are still to face fellow minor premiership challengers Fremantle and Hawthorn to close out the season, with a loss potentially crippling their top two hopes.

We all know about the Kangaroos’ unpredictable form from week to week, but when facing a quality opponent they've proved capable of stepping up to the challenge, as evidenced by the recent win over Hawthorn. 

When the contenders take the field North Melbourne responds, and despite some scratchy form Geelong is a side who fits in that bracket.

The Cats 6-1 record since the 110-point loss to Sydney is impressive, but only one of those wins came against a top eight opponent (Essendon). Still, it’s allowed them to build confidence and momentum as their list strengthens to almost 100 per cent availability. 

Geelong is undefeated in its home state (11-0) and love a close fight, recording a 4-0 record in games decided by single digits. If North needs the supreme motivation that stems from being an underdog, it’s available in spades.

Last time the two teams met a ten goal first half from the Cats essentially sealed the deal. They are one of only four sides to eclipse the century mark against the Kangaroos in 2014. Tom Hawkins was unstoppable while old heads Jimmy Bartel and James Kelly set the tone from the first bounce. North lost the turnover battle and couldn’t combat the Cats’ crisp transition through the corridor.

Geelong KPIs

Few teams utilise the ball better than the Cats, with their foot skills a feature. Geelong has committed the fewest turnovers by foot in the competition this season for a league best differential of -2.6 per game. This has been the hallmark of its success since they captured the 2007 premiership, registering a -2.7 turnover by foot differential across the last eight years. It is almost double the next ranked side in that span (Hawthorn, -1.4).

The same can be said about the Cats' kicking efficiency, an area where they again lead the competition and on average have done so since that 2007 season (+1.1% on the next ranked side). When you combine crisp usage with pressure, their success this season and in years past becomes more apparent.

Geelong leads the competition in tackle differential (+9.9) despite averaging 9 more disposals per game than its opponents, which makes the task of starving it from dictating play even tougher. This is the challenge for the Kangaroos as a unit on Saturday night; to limit the Cats’ ability to direct play both with and without the football.

Thankfully North has runs on the board in this area - it sits behind only Geelong, Fremantle and Hawthorn for best turnover kick differential. The ability to trouble the Cats stems first and foremost from a high work-rate, but more importantly remaining disciplined defensively. This ensures any period of the opposition dictating play has limited impact and the ball not finding its way through the corridor, resulting in the devastating run-and-carry we saw in the Round 10 fixture.

By forcing sides short and wide, opposition play becomes stagnant. All those high effective kick and uncontested mark numbers may look pretty on the stat sheet but the fruits of such labour are often underwhelming, as evidenced by the Kangaroos holding opponents to the third lowest goal scoring efficiency.

The slower opponents transfer the football, the more time North has to effectively set their structure and use that turnover producing prowess. It has seen the side total the fourth best points from turnover differential in the last seven weeks behind only Hawthorn, Fremantle and Sydney. The risk is such a system requires all 18 players on the field to work in unison, and as we’ve seen at times this season one break in the chain can result in irreparable damage.
 

North Melbourne KPIs

For North, the win-loss indicators are black and white. There’s not much to gain from Kangaroos' losses this season; when things go bad, they go sour the ground over. Apart from the four-point loss to Brisbane, the average losing margin of 32 points paints a different picture from a season ago where the Kangaroos’ 12 losses were by an average of 12 points.

North looks its best when it can find run-and-carry overlap, with few sides more devastating in space. A Harvey or Dal Santo entry inside 50 often spells trouble for the opposition, but it’s trying to force the break of an opponent zone which can lead to a turnover or skill error. It’s essential to be patient against such a turnover generating outfit like Geelong. The Cats are one of only five sides with a points from turnover differential over 100.

A hacked clearance forward or blind handball to a stagnant teammate is often more detrimental than just forcing a stoppage and rebooting, which is what we saw time and time again in the previous meeting. The Kangaroos are likely to win the clearance battle Saturday night based on every indicator we have at our disposal, but it’s whether or not they can get their outside game going which will make or break their prospects.

When the work-rate is up, the results speak for themselves. North has outscored opponents from general play by nearly 20 goals, while almost doubling their number of scoring shots generated on the run. The Kangaroos have also produced the sixth most goals via the corridor in wins this season, behind only the top five sides on the ladder, outscoring their opponents by 44 goals.

Unfortunately the last time Geelong and North met the exact opposite took place. Despite dominating the clearance count in the first half, of North’s 7 centre clearances, 6 resulted in turnovers with 3 being rushed long kicks. 66 of the Cats’ 69 first half points in Round 10 were sourced from turnovers for a differential of +46, essentially ending the contest.
 

Last Time They Met

Last time we previewed North v Geelong, we identified ten core areas that the Kangaroos needed to be competitive in, based on the quarters the Cats had lost this season. At the time they'd lost just nine quarters. In the nine weeks since, that number has expanded to 25, but the core areas remained the same. Geelong’s updated differential output in quarters lost is as follows;
 

As you can see, sides that trouble the Cats win first use, starve them of opportunity and limit efficiency in front of goal. The following table shows the Kangaroos output in these specific indicators during their Round 10 matchup. North won just two of the ten areas; long kicks and clearances.

In the first half, the two areas the Kangaroos excelled at went hand in hand as eventual negatives, due to a lack of poise when winning first use. If North can generate the same domination at clearances, but implement more tact with its forays forward, that alone will go a long way to reversing the result.
 

The two other areas of concern from the previous meeting were the performance in defence against Geelong’s entries inside 50, and matching its work-rate in the midfield. Through the corridor the Cats sourced 53 points from marks compared to North’s 29 points. It was one of the loosest defensive displays we’ve seen from the Kangaroos this season. Freedom through the middle was consistently on offer for the home team with the two examples below highlighting the key issue.

The first was highlighted in Round 10’s NMFC Playbook, while the second example shows an unmanned Varcoe on the fringe of the centre square. George Horlin-Smith wins the centre clearance and handballs to his team-mate free in space. 

Varcoe in-turn handballs to Jimmy Bartel for a quick one-two. He streams through the corridor and hits a leading Tom Hawkins.
 

The Geelong midfield simply had too much room to play with in Round 10 and its superior work-rate and usage showed. Its midfield finished the game with +7.7 per cent kicking efficiency, 17 more uncontested marks and 16 more tackles.  For the Kangaroos’ centre square contingent in Todd Goldstein, Levi Greenwood, Ben Cunnington, Andrew Swallow, Jack Ziebell, Nick Dal Santo, Sam Gibson and Ryan Bastinac, the challenge has been laid down after being defeated in the previous meeting.

When you lose the midfield battle, the strain on your defensive unit surges towards breaking point. Despite accumulating two fewer entries by foot, the Cats were far cleaner at locating both targets inside 50 and hitting the scoreboard.
 

Both sides elected for longer entries with the high ball causing havoc against North, yet proving predictable for the Cats. They tracked back in numbers and funneled plenty of ball to low percentage areas.

When the footy did hit the deck it was Geelong who had the superior work-rate, finishing the evening with 15 more contested possessions inside 50.
 

Three players in particular took North apart in the previous encounter. Cats' coach Chris Scott pulled a rope-a-dope, opting for a new look centre square unit for the first time all season.

With Steve Johnson suspended, North’s focus was clearly on Joel Selwood. However he started forward with veterans James Kelly and Jimmy Bartel starting in the middle. The pair combined for 65 disposals (23 contested), 26 score involvements (from 31 scores), 25 effective kicks, 22 handball receives, 19 marks, 16 ground-ball gets, 13 tackles, 12 intercept possessions and just 2 turnovers.

You can guarantee North will be better prepared this time around.

Who Will Win and Why?

Regardless of the result we should get ourselves a high scoring and entertaining contest with the two teams the most efficient scoring sides from entries by foot in the last eight weeks.

North has proven it can handle the Cats, winning two of the previous three encounters at Etihad. The only question is, which outfit will show up? Given its performances off a loss this season and results against the league’s elite, it’s hard to envision anything but a Kangaroos' team with a September level work-rate.

Since Round 11, North Melbourne and Geelong sit 17^th and 18^th for turnovers by foot. Whoever can force the most turnovers will likely win the contest. 

Over the last eight weeks, the Kangaroos have been the better scoring and defensive side out of the two from both a turnover and stoppage perspective, whilst on the season they've had the better defence, ranking fourth for points against, compared to Geelong who sits eighth.

Catching the Cats off a bye has also proved valuable in recent seasons. Since 2011, they possess a 1-4 record after a break.

It’s largely above the shoulders for these Kangaroos. They’ve had the necessary time to prepare and nullify the issues which plagued them in the previous meeting against Geelong and a fortnight ago against Carlton. Play their game, their way and North can defeat any side in the competition.

Tip: North Melbourne by 9 points