32 points (eight wins, seven losses), 107.97 per cent
The run home:
Rd 17: Richmond at the MCG
Rd 18: Melbourne at Etihad Stadium
Rd 19: Western Bulldogs at Etihad Stadium
Rd 20: Essendon at Etihad Stadium
Rd 21: Collingwood at Etihad Stadium
Rd 22: Fremantle at Etihad Stadium
Rd 23: Greater Western Sydney at Skoda Stadium
----------------------------------------
The Roos are playing better than any team outside the eight. They outshone a similarly positioned Blues team under Friday night's lights, and on current form they will be more than a match for the Tigers - snarling from their shock loss to the Suns - up next. Games against the Bombers, the Pies and Fremantle in rounds 20-22 are likely to be pivotal.
1. Sydney Swans?
48 points (12 wins, three losses), 148.05 per cent??
The run home:
Rd 17: St Kilda at the SCG
Rd 18: Gold Coast at Metricon Stadium
Rd 19: Carlton at Etihad Stadium?
Rd 20: Collingwood at ANZ Stadium?
Rd 21: Western Bulldogs at Etihad Stadium?
Rd 22: Hawthorn at the SCG?
Rd 23: Geelong at Simonds Stadium??
A sixth straight win against West Coast delivered a simple message to the rest of the competition: the Swans mean business. Sunday's rout of the Eagles will have John Longmire's men full of confidence ahead of a tough road home. Hawthorn and Collingwood will be the Swans' most daunting foes on home turf. Away opponents Geelong and Carlton could both be scrapping for their spot in the eight.
2. Adelaide
48 points (12 wins, three losses) 131.87 per cent
The run home:
Rd 17: West Coast at AAMI Stadium
Rd 18: Geelong at Simonds Stadium
Rd 19: Essendon at AAMI Stadium
Rd 20: Fremantle at AAMI Stadium
Rd 21: Brisbane Lions at the Gabba
Rd 22: Melbourne at the MCG
Rd 23: Gold Coast at AAMI Stadium
After ticking the boxes with a gigantic win against the Giants, the Crows will need to reload against the Eagles, Cats and Bombers. Win some or all of those games and the Crows should cement a top-four berth, especially as their last month is relatively easy. Adelaide's task should be made easier by the imminent return of key forward Kurt Tippett, while the suspended Taylor Walker is due back in round 18.
3. Collingwood
48 points (12 wins, three losses) 121.56 per cent
The run home:
Rd 17: Hawthorn at the MCG
Rd 18: Greater Western Sydney at Skoda Stadium
Rd 19: St Kilda at the MCG
Rd 20: Sydney Swans at ANZ Stadium
Rd 21: North Melbourne at Etihad Stadium
Rd 22: West Coast at Patersons Stadium
Rd 23: Essendon at the MCG
Collingwood re-established its prominence with a powerful win against the Cats. This week's battle with the Hawks could have huge top-four ramifications. An away trip to face the Giants in round 18 offers respite before a testing run home that will challenge, rather than concern, the Pies.
4. Hawthorn
44 points (11 wins, four losses) 157 per cent
The run home:
Rd 17: Collingwood at the MCG
Rd 18: Essendon at the MCG
Rd 19: Geelong at the MCG
Rd 20: Port Adelaide at Aurora Stadium
Rd 21: Gold Coast at the MCG
Rd 22: Sydney Swans at the SCG
Rd 23: West Coast at the MCG
Hawthorn extended its winning streak to six against the Dogs, also enjoying a healthy boost in percentage. The next three weeks will probably determine the Hawks' top four ambitions, with games against the Pies, Bombers and Cats not made easier by the likely absences of Lance Franklin and captain Luke Hodge. Two easier games follow, before the Hawks face the Swans and Eagles in the run home to the finals. Their healthy percentage could be a decisive factor.
5. West Coast
44 points (11 wins, four losses) 131.52 per cent
??The run home:?
Rd 17: Adelaide Crows at AAMI Stadium
Rd 18: Brisbane Lions at Patersons Stadium?
Rd 19: Fremantle at Patersons Stadium?
Rd 20: Geelong at Patersons Stadium?
Rd 21: Port Adelaide at AAMI Stadium
Rd 22: Collingwood at Patersons Stadium
Rd 23: Hawthorn at the MCG??
The Eagles slide to fifth thanks to Sunday's deflating loss - the first in their backyard since round three, 2011. Next week's trip across the Nullarbor is perhaps West Coast's toughest remaining mission, but there few easy games to come. The Lions pinched the points when the teams met in round 10. Western derbies are rarely easily won, and the Eagles also face Geelong and Collingwood before a last-round appointment with Hawthorn that should be a mouth-watering precursor to the finals. Jack Darling's loss stretches an already wafer-thin forward line.
6. Essendon
44 points (11 wins, four losses) 130 per cent
The run home:
Rd 17: Geelong at Etihad Stadium
Rd 18: Hawthorn at Etihad Stadium
Rd 19: Adelaide at AAMI Stadium
Rd 20: North Melbourne at Etihad Stadium
Rd 21: Carlton at the MCG
Rd 22: Richmond at the MCG
Rd 23: Collingwood at the MCG
The next three weeks could determine Essendon's season. Geelong awaits the Dons next week, with top-four hopefuls the Hawks and Crows rounding out a tough draw. The Bombers' last month, which includes games against the Roos, Blues, Tigers and Pies, is among the toughest going around. Forward Scott Gumbleton's return was pleasing, but the Bombers' spate of soft tissue injuries could yet hobble their chances of going deep into September.
7. Geelong
36 points (nine wins, six losses), 109.43 per cent
The run home:
Rd 17: Essendon at Etihad Stadium
Rd 18: Adelaide at Simonds Stadium
Rd 19: Hawthorn at the MCG
Rd 20: West Coast at Patersons Stadium
Rd 21: St Kilda at Etihad Stadium
Rd 22: Western Bulldogs at Etihad Stadium
Rd 23: Sydney Swans at Simonds Stadium
It's do-or-die time for Geelong, as the reigning premier sizes up a season-defining encounter with Essendon. The Cats' sluggish starts continue to bemuse coach Chris Scott, with the club searching for a way to correct the trend. The Crows, Hawks and Eagles cap off a lethal four-game stretch which will give an accurate reading of whether Geelong is still able to match it with the heavyweights. The Cats can't afford many, if any further slip ups, with a raft of teams breathing down their necks.
8. St Kilda
32 points (eight wins, seven losses), 120.76 per cent
The run home:
Rd 17: Sydney Swans at the SCG
Rd 18: Western Bulldogs at Etihad Stadium
Rd 19: Collingwood at the MCG
Rd 20: Melbourne at the MCG
Rd 21: Geelong at Etihad Stadium
Rd 22: Greater Western Sydney at Etihad Stadium
Rd 23: Carlton at Etihad Stadium
Escaped with the points against the Lions and will now confront the Swans in Sydney in a vital game to keep the pressure firmly on the seventh-placed Cats. The Saints will welcome Brendon Goddard back into the fold after his suspension but they need to keep winning, with the Kangaroos and Fremantle both equal on points.
----------------------------------------
10. Fremantle
32 points (eight wins, seven losses) 97.60 per cent
The run home:
Rd 17: Greater Western Sydney at Patersons Stadium
Rd 18: Port Adelaide at AAMI Stadium
Rd 19: West Coast at Patersons Stadium
Rd 20: Adelaide at AAMI Stadium
Rd 21: Richmond at Patersons Stadium
Rd 22: North Melbourne at Etihad Stadium
Rd 23: Melbourne at Patersons Stadium
Having held off a stern challenge from Melbourne at the weekend, Ross Lyon's men will now hope to boost their percentage against the Giants. Two trips to Adelaide and the western derby will shed light on where Fremantle sits in the pecking order. Star Nat Fyfe is set for a round-18 return, and with luck will be firing at full pace just in time for crunch clashes against the Tigers and North Melbourne.
11. Richmond
28 points (seven wins, eight losses) 107.02 per cent
The run home:
Rd 17: North Melbourne at the MCG
Rd 18: Carlton at the MCG
Rd 19: Brisbane Lions at the Gabba
Rd 20: Western Bulldogs at the MCG
Rd 21: Fremantle at Paterson Stadium
Rd 22: Essendon at the MCG
Rd 23: Port Adelaide at the MCG
Saturday night's upset in Cairns was a great story for everyone but Tiger fans. Karmichael Hunt's after-the-siren winner leaves Richmond reeling. They will regain Dustin Martin, following his off-field indiscretion, for must-win games against the Roos and Carlton, both rivals for eighth spot. Needless to say if the Tigers drop those games their finals hopes will be in tatters.
12. Carlton
28 points (seven wins, eight losses) 103.72 per cent
The run home:
Rd 17: Western Bulldogs at Etihad Stadium
Rd 18: Richmond at the MCG
Rd 19: Sydney Swans at Etihad Stadium
Rd 20: Brisbane Lions at Etihad Stadium
Rd 21: Essendon at the MCG
Rd 22: Gold Coast at Metricon Stadium
Rd 23: St Kilda at Etihad Stadium
Friday night's loss could hardly have been a more abrupt let-down for the Blues after last week's inspiring win over Collingwood. Captain Chris Judd is in hot water for his 'chicken wing' tackle on Leigh Adams, while Andrew Walker is out for up to three weeks with a calf injury. Twelfth is no position from which to be mounting finals campaigns, and the Blues are running out of time to salvage something from their season. Privately, their friendly fixture may keep them optimistic, but they need to win at least three out of their next four to remain in contention.
13. Brisbane Lions
24 points (six wins, nine losses), 92.42 per cent
The run home:
Rd 17: Gold Coast at the Gabba
Rd 18: West Coast at Patersons Stadium
Rd 19: Richmond at the Gabba
Rd 20: Carlton at Etihad Stadium
Rd 21: Adelaide at the Gabba
Rd 22: Port Adelaide at AAMI Stadium
Rd 23: Western Bulldogs at the Gabba
At least 12 wins are likely to be required to play finals, which means the Lions would need to win six of their remaining seven. Michael Voss's men will need things to go their way, but will be confident of pushing for a win in at least five games. West Coast in Perth is a daunting task, although the Swans have proved it is not impossible. The trip south to play the Blues will also be difficult.
14. Western Bulldogs
20 points (five wins, 10 losses) 74.68 percent
The run home:
Rd 17: Carlton at Etihad Stadium
Rd 18: St Kilda at Etihad Stadium
Rd 19: North Melbourne at Etihad Stadium
Rd 20: Richmond at the MCG
Rd 21: Sydney Swans at Etihad Stadium
Rd 22: Geelong at Simonds Stadium
Rd 23: Brisbane Lions at the Gabba
Thanks to their abysmal percentage, the Dogs could win all their remaining games and still finish outside the top eight. Realistically, the Dogs are in a rebuilding phase and will have shelved their finals hopes several weeks ago. Face teams still in the hunt for September in at least their next six matches, which doesn't bode well for fans hoping to sing the song anytime soon.
Ben Guthrie is a reporter for AFL.com.au. Follow him on Twitter - @AFL_BenGuthrie
