While it’s said ‘Cats have nine lives’, the myth would perhaps be more suitable to Kangaroos in the AFL landscape considering the way Geelong and North Melbourne’s seasons have played out in 2013.
The Roos have been written off after losses against Adelaide, Gold Coast, Brisbane and Carlton but the recent destruction of GWS, Richmond and Melbourne has them rising from the ashes for one last shot at finals.
It’s been a roller coaster ride for North supporters with five games lost by less than a kick. Then there was the injury to Andrew Swallow making matters even worse. But North still has a pulse and if ever there was a chance to stand up, it’s surely against the Cats on Friday night.
North Key Indicators
The Kangaroos rely on their foot skills to gain territory which makes for a more controlled and methodical approach until space opens up. Then we see that customary exciting brand of high scoring football we all know and love.
The Roos rank fifteenth in the competition for mark-play on percentage and have accumulated forty-one more backwards kicks than the next ranked side Fremantle. It indicates patience to locate space and discipline to switch the play, rather than force the issue.
Facing a highly drilled Cats outfit which thrives on one on one contests, the Roos will need to work extra hard to find an option in space, especially given how deadly Geelong is at generating scores from turnovers.
Working in the Kangaroos’ favour is their ability to find targets by foot. North is second in the competition for effective kicks and kicking efficiency whilst committing the ninth fewest turnover kicks in the competition. This is even more impressive when you consider the sheer weight of kicking numbers.
In wins, North sees its skill based indicators blossom to the point of the highest short kick, effective kick, uncontested mark, marks inside fifty, contested possession, inside fifty and scoring efficiency differential of any side.
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When North wins, it does so in dominating fashion.
| In wins | Short kicks | Effective kicks | Turnover kicks | Kicking efficiency | Disposals | Uncontested possessions |
| North Melbourne | +35.6 | +42.1 | -1.7 | +2.2% | +83.4 | +57.9 |
| In wins | Mark-play on % | Uncontested marks | Contested possession | Clearances | Inside 50's | Marks inside 50 | % scores times in |
| North Melbourne | -9% | +28 | +27.3 | +7.4 | +17.1 | +9.6 | +16.6% |
Geelong excels defensively by negating opposition skills, specifically via foot. The Cats are top five in the competition for fewest opposition effective kicks, uncontested marks, total kicks and kicking efficiency.
They also force opponents to kick long which means more one on one contests and more chances of a turnover (an area where the Cats lead the competition).
Geelong does allow the fourth most handballs of any side in the AFL but this often works in its favour given its opponent rarely dictates the terms. It results in plenty of circle work and eventually, more turnovers.
In losses, the Kangaroos have experienced a severe drop across the board but specifically in turnovers by foot, contested possession and the ability to score. What is interesting to note is how unlucky North has been.
The Roos short kick, effective kick, uncontested mark and goal scoring efficiency differential in losses ranks the best of any side, unfortunately the turnovers by foot differential is ranked the worst and that is the primary catalyst for their downfall.
Geelong and North are the only two sides with a positive effective kick differential in losses while Hawthorn and North are the only two sides with a positive disposal differential in losses.
Geelong Key Indicators
When Geelong is at its best, all the elements of what you love to see from a football side are on full display; efficient ball use, deadly counter attack, high pressure, frequent scoring, use of the corridor and a staunch defence.
Geelong leads the competition in kicking efficiency, sits fifteenth for clanger kicks and fifth for long kicks. The Cats trust their players to produce in one on one matchups ranking second for contested marks but they can also spread and find space through uncontested possession (fourth), mark play on percentage (sixth) and handballs (fourth).
When you look at Geelong’s output in wins what you find is a comfortable advantage virtually across the board but one that highlights finding space, supreme efficiency up forward and a superior skill level.
| In wins | Short kicks | Effective kicks | Turnover kicks | Kicking efficiency | Handballs | Disposals | Uncontested marks |
| Geelong | +12.1 | +12.9 | -5.4 | +3.8% | +16.4 | +24.2 | +9 |
| In wins | Mark play on % | Uncontested possession | Contested possession | Tackles | Inside 50's | Marks inside 50 | % scores times in |
| Geelong | +0/8% | +21.9 | +4 | +1.6 | +13.5 | +4.4 | +5.2% |
Thankfully for North, the Cats often flirt with a risky brand of up-tempo footy and it can bring them unstuck. Geelong likes to mix up its disposal and possess the fifth lowest kick to handball ratio which makes for plenty of exciting rapid fire footy but also throws things into disarray if that run and carry is shut down.
The Cats kick to handball ratio shifts from 1.26 in wins to 1.40 in losses and the same can be said for mark play on percentage. The Cats tendency to play on after a mark compared to their opponents in wins is +0.8%, in losses this dips to a league low differential of -6.1%.
If North can force Geelong to adopt a more methodical and predictable approach whilst also taking the game on themselves, they’ll be every chance at winning.
| In losses | Short kicks | Effective kicks | Turnover kicks | Kicking efficiency | Handballs | Disposals | Uncontested marks |
| Geelong | +3 | +8.3 | -2.7 | +7.4% | -23.7 | -34.7 | +0.7 |
| In losses | Mark play on % | Uncontested possession | Contested possession | Tackles | Inside 50's | Marks inside 50 | % scores times in |
| Geelong | -6.1% | -33 | -2.7 | -5.7 | -3.7 | +2.3 | +1.2% |
The Contested Barometer
The most important aspect for the Kangaroos on Friday night will be winning the contested ball. Geelong has shown an almost perfect correlation between winning the contested possession count for a quarter and winning that quarter on the scoreboard.
Fremantle and St. Kilda are the only two sides who have failed to win a contested possession count in a quarter against the Cats this season and both were blown off the map.
Below is the aggregate output of contested possession quarters won and the resulting scoreboard differential. There were only four quarters from thirty-two (12.5%) where Geelong lost the contested possession count but won the quarter on the scoreboard.
From thirty-four quarters where Geelong won the contested possession count, only one team (Hawthorn) was able to steal a quarter on the scoreboard (2.94%).
Geelong Contested Possession Quarters Won and Lost (CP break even quarters not included)
| Contested possession result | Total quarters | Contested possession differential | Total points differential |
| Won | 34 | +226 | +506 |
| Lost | 32 | -186 | -112 |
This highlights just how devastating the Cats can be in a short amount of time if dominating the contested ball. It also indicates a pretty simple equation for victory; win the contested ball every quarter. Evidence on the season suggests the Roos will more than likely win the opening term but it’s the remaining three which are the issue. The kicker for the Cats is they have also proven they can stem the scoreboard flow much more effectively if they themselves are off the boil.
Scoring Sources
When it comes to scoring punch North and Geelong are strikingly dissimilar on raw rankings but when those areas are influencing results, there are plenty of parallels. The Cats are the transition kings which sees them leading the competition in points from turnover differential compared to the Kangaroos who sit seventh.
Those who read this week’s scouting report should have a clear picture of each outfits’ differing dependence at stoppages and how they influenced the result when the sides met in Round 2.
[RELATED: Scouting Report]
North rank second overall in the competition for scores from stoppages differential compared to the Cats who sit sixth but that advantage has faded late in games and led to the Kangaroos downfall often in 2013. When that Kangaroo midfield pressure drops, the corridor opens up and this has played a part in them allowing 130-points from kick-ins alone this season which is the most of any club.
If North is to keep that September dream alive, it’s going to be on the back of four committed quarters at the coalface.
Kangaroos Scoring Source Differentials by Half (Totals)
| Half | Points from stoppages | Points from turnovers | Points from kick ins |
| First | +221 (1st) | +100 (6th) | -16 (13th) |
| Second | +14 (9th) | +53 (11th) | -32 (18th) |
What we find in Geelong’s wins and losses is cohesion between having to win first use of the football whilst also maintaining heavy pressure. Geelong opponents had success when not necessarily limiting Geelong’s counter attack ability but rather stifling them at contests and matching them at their own game.
| Geelong in wins | Scores from stoppages | Scores from turnovers |
| Geelong | 37.92 | 72.71 |
| Opponent | 30.35 | 41.21 |
| Differential | +7.57 | +31.5 |
| Geelong in losses | Scores from stoppages | Scores from turnovers |
| Geelong | 25 | 65.33 |
| Opponent | 31.66 | 59.66 |
| Differential | -6.66 | +5.66 |
For North, the situation was similar; only a heavier reliance on production from their midfield at stoppages was more prominent. In losses, the Kangaroos still won the battle in the middle but that league leading turnovers by foot differential in losses left them in far too deep of a hole.
In wins this year, North didn’t allow more than 33-points from turnovers in any game but in losses they gifted at least 46-points to every opponent minus the Gold Coast;
| North in wins | Scores from stoppages | Scores from turnovers |
| North | 49.71 | 77.42 |
| Opponent | 24.71 | 29.14 |
| Differential | +25 | +48.28 |
| North in losses | Scores from stoppages | Scores from turnovers |
| North | 36.7 | 46.5 |
| Opponent | 30.7 | 65 |
| Differential | +6 | -18.5 |
Who will win and why?
On raw ladder position alone, most would disregard the Kangaroos’ chances of taking a scalp of Geelong’s class but if North hadn’t registered a quadruple bogey for losses under a goal already this season, we’d be talking about two finals bound teams.
We know North needs to be at its cleanest by foot and remain disciplined if it’s to win. Turn the ball over against Geelong and you’re cooked, it’s that simple. In its favour, North leads the competition for time in possession and is equal with the Cats for time in front percentage.
Pressure must be maintained for four quarters, specifically in one on one contests. North ranks second for clearances and fourth for contested possession differential compared to the Cats who sit eighth.
Losing Andrew Swallow, who is responsible for 8 percent of the Roos contested possessions this season, 15 percent of clearances and 10 percent of tackles, makes things more difficult.
Ben Cunnington, Daniel Wells and Jack Ziebell will have big jobs to do but likes of Ryan Bastinac, Ben Jacobs, Leigh Adams and Brent Harvey need to take it to another level in order to maintain North’s league leading 67.7% rate of scores generated from the midfield.
Looking at the spread of centre square involvement and the Cats have fifteen players (including the injured Dawson Simpson) with at least fifty centre square involvements this season.
Making the most of scoring opportunities is one area where North has an advantage with few clubs more efficient. The Kangaroos rank tenth in the competition for inside fifties but second for goal scoring efficiency, first for scoring accuracy and sixth for marks inside fifty.
Given the barometer of Geelong and contested ball, coupled with its dependency on forcing turnovers, it’s fair to say this matchup will be won and lost in the midfield. The question is whether or not North is capable of edging the Cats in that area and there’s plenty to suggest it can, even minus their skipper. You only need to look as far as the Roos’ first half against Geelong in Round 2 where they executed a near perfect game plan.
| First half, Round 2 | Short kicks | Effective kicks | Turnover kicks | Kicking efficiency | Handballs | Disposals |
| North Melbourne | +46 | +60 | +1 | +23.7% | -16 | +41 |
| First half, Round 2 | Uncontested marks | Uncontested possession | Contested possession | Tackles | Inside 50's | Marks inside 50 | % scores times in |
| North Melbourne | +35 | +31 | +9 | +3 | -7 | +3 | +31.9% |
The Kangaroos restrict their opponents to the fewest disposals and uncontested marks and the second lowest number of contested possessions, clearances and effective kicks. With the game at Etihad Stadium, the Roos have every chance of walking away with the four points.
Tip: North by 5 points
Follow Scott on Twitter: @ScottyBarby
