NMFC.com.au called upon Scott Barby to write this week’s Definitive Preview. The opinions of Scott are his own and do not reflect those of North Melbourne.

Follow Scott on Twitter: @ScottyBarby

After a disappointing round one showing, North Melbourne takes on the Brisbane Lions this Sunday afternoon in its opening home game for 2015. It’s a chance for the Roos to make amends but it won’t come without a tough fight from a Lions side that will be equally as hungry to get their campaign back on track.

Adelaide jumped North with unrelenting pressure from the get go last week and the rest was history. The Lions were no doubt watching with keen interest and there’s every reason to expect a similar attack on the ball from the first bounce.

First use

Contested ball will be at a premium this Sunday and will go a long way to deciding a winner. Historically you don’t have to look very far to find a drop in North’s contested output correlating with a loss. North were winless last season when producing 120 or fewer contested possessions with losses to Essendon (round 1), Collingwood (round 5) and Carlton (round 18). They were arguably the three worst performances of the season and on the weekend against the Crows it was no surprise to see such a one-sided scoreboard aligned with a Kangaroos contested possession count of 115.

It’s been cliché footy speak for some time but if you take the field without the necessary mindset committed to winning the fifty-fifty ball, the game is already gone.

Any positive result for North Melbourne starts with the work rate of the midfield core which lacked the necessary endeavour against Adelaide, conceding a round-high 55 points from stoppages and losing the clearance count 40-27. Improving output at stoppages has been a big focus for the Lions over summer so North must bring the right intensity.

Last year, they conceded a League worst 1014 points from clearances but they’ve since added both talent and maturity to an already promising list hoping to find consistency.

Against Collingwood a lack of early intent would come back to haunt Brisbane with the Lions winning every area on the ground apart from first use. Collingwood went into the three-quarter time huddle +26 in contested possession and +5 in clearances for 19 more inside 50s. This was the trigger which allowed the Magpies to keep the ball in their forward half for 10 minutes and 32 seconds more than Brisbane. That’s a lot of extra defending and invaluable on a soggy, humid evening in Brisbane.

The loss came as no surprise given clearances have been an accurate indicator for gauging the Lions results last year. Brisbane was the number one scoring side from clearances in wins, producing 44.6 points per game and ranked dead last in losses at 21 points per game. It doesn’t come more cut and dry than that.

The first task for North Melbourne this Sunday is to stop the Lions from gaining the ascendancy in the middle. Behind ruckman Todd Goldstein North has proved countless times they’re more than capable of winning first use, finishing last year ranked third for hit-out differential, second for hit-outs to advantage differential, fourth for clearance differential and from rounds 16-27, when footy really heats up, North were third for points from clearances.

The need for speed

Transition speed has become a core indicator of success in modern day footy and it comes as no surprise given the logic behind it. The quicker you move the footy, the less time an opponent has to structure a defence thus the higher the likelihood they concede scores. Like all things valuable, there’s a significant amount of risk involved so having the necessary structure and fitness to run in waves along with the skills to match will make or break how successful embracing speed in transition will be.

Teams capable of playing at speed have generally been rewarded. The correlation between speed of transition, number of fast transitions and high ladder position remained consistent all the way through preliminary final weekend and the Grand Final.

The good news for North Melbourne is they fall on the positive side when it comes to playing at speed, while the Lions finished 2014 17th for fast chain differential and last for average transition time differential. In black and white terms, Brisbane is prone to playing too slow and such a mindset hurt them again in round one.

Brisbane wasn’t anywhere near as damaging as they should’ve been against Collingwood, finishing with just 17 points from 75 possession gains. A wet and humid evening certainly didn’t aid skill level but we saw little evidence of a Brisbane side capable of doing damage through the corridor at pace.

A repeat performance would definitely aid North Melbourne who loves to limit their opponents’ ability to navigate out of defensive 50 and strangles sides at Etihad Stadium. Last season, no side sourced more scores from opposition turnovers in the defensive 50 corridor than the Kangaroos.

Ball movement

How quickly you move the footy matters but the direction you elect to travel is just as important. Some sides love the comfort of the boundary, while others frown upon such securities and embrace risk through the corridor.

Brisbane love getting the ball outside and into space. In wins last season, the Lions had an uncontested possession differential of +33 which led the competition, while their kicking efficiency in wins ranked third.

Brisbane rarely kicks long when going forward ranking in the bottom two teams regardless of result, so North will have to bring their focus zoning valuable space and challenge the Lions to consistently pinpoint a risky option or go long down the line.

Brisbane likes to minimise risk in their back half by utilising the boundary out of defensive 50 at the second highest rate of any side. North must limit space similar to how the Pies did above, as the Lions will accommodate the low percentage play.

Sunday will be all about communication and work rate.

Utilising the boundary in the game today is often the hallmark of an unskilled side. To be a contender you simply have to embrace the corridor. The five sides that finished 2014 with a total corridor usage differential (both centre and wide corridor) exceeding 2% were Hawthorn, Fremantle, Sydney, Geelong and Essendon, while no side who finished in the bottom eight for corridor usage differential played finals.

In 2014, no side sourced more scores via the corridor than North Melbourne. The Kangaroos’ objective with ball in hand is sound. They’ve opted for the proven avenue to success in modern day footy, but it holds little value if you don’t create enough chances to utilise its worth as we saw against Adelaide.

Forward line efficiency

After a defensive baptism of fire in round one, the key job for North Melbourne’s back six this week will shift to limiting stoppages in defensive 50. Brisbane lacks a go-to key position forward so the Lions are all too aware of the importance of locking the ball in their forward line.

In losses last year, Brisbane was the worst side in the competition for time in forward half differential, experienced the 17th fewest stoppages inside 50 and produced just 10.5 points from forward stoppages per game which was dead last in the competition. In wins, Brisbane’s time in forward half differential rose to fifth best, they forced the fourth most stoppages in their forward 50 and 25.7 points from forward stoppages, which was good enough for second best.

As for the Kangaroos, they had a negative time in forward half differential last year. Similar to Fremantle, North was so dangerous once forward of centre that it allowed them to maintain a defensive backbone and create a great balance.

The Dockers and Roos were the only sides to target the corridor more than 50% of the time when venturing inside 50 by foot; well above the League average of 39.21% which went a long way to the Roos finishing the year ranked number one for scoring efficiency.

Brisbane defenders will find themselves consistently isolated in one-on-one contests this Sunday, especially when North breaks in transition. The Roos thrive on clearing out dangerous space for forwards to run into. Plenty would frown on North being ranked 17th for stoppages in the forward half but given open space helps their ability to hit the scoreboard – it’s not a representation of a lack in defensive effort.

This Sunday will showcase two sides with different attacking objectives. North will be looking for open space when venturing forward and Brisbane will be doing all it can to benefit from repeat stoppages inside 50.

Who will win and why?

After sub-par round one performances from both outfits, there’s no doubting we’ll be in for a finals-like environment early in the contest with both sides trying to prove last week wasn’t an accurate representation of what their footy club is about.

From a match-up and tactical perspective, North looks better equipped to press the advantage in several areas.
Recent seasons have seen the North boys respond when their backs are against the wall. The Kangaroos were 6-1 off a loss last season including wins over Hawthorn and Fremantle in the west.

Tip: North by 28 points