The views in this article are those of the author and not necessarily those of the AFL or its clubs.
1. Fremantle
68 points (17 wins, four losses) 125.1 per cent
The run home
Rd 23: Port Adelaide at Adelaide Oval
If the Dockers win next week:
- They will finish at least a game and a half clear on top of the ladder
If they lose next week:
- They still finish top, earning the club's first minor premiership
Predicted finish: First
Predicted final match-up: Fremantle v Sydney Swans, first qualifying final, Domain Stadium
2. West Coast
62 points (15 wins, five losses, one draw) 143.0 per cent
The run home
Rd 23: St Kilda at Domain Stadium
If the Eagles win next week:
- They will finish second on the ladder
If they lose next week:
- They finish second if Carlton upsets Hawthorn
- They drop to third if Hawthorn beats Carlton, and have to travel to the MCG to face the Hawks in the qualifying final
Predicted finish: second
Predicted final match-up: West Coast v Hawthorn, second qualifying final, Domain Stadium
3. Hawthorn
60 points (15 wins, six losses) 156.8 per cent
The run home
Rd 23: Carlton at the MCG
If the Hawks win next week:
- They finish second on the ladder if St Kilda upsets West Coast at Domain Stadium. Most likely outcome is they'll finish third.
If they lose next week:
- They drop to fourth if the Swans beat the Suns. But they can't lose the double chance because of their huge percentage break over the chasing pack.
Predicted finish: Third
Predicted final match-up: West Coast v Hawthorn, second qualifying final, Domain Stadium
4. Sydney Swans
60 points (15 wins, six losses) 124.1 per cent
The run home:
Rd 23: Gold Coast at the SCG
If the Swans win next week:
- They remain in fourth place if Hawthorn beats Carlton
- They will climb to third if Hawthorn is upset by Carlton
If they lose next week:
- They will drop out of the top four if one of the Western Bulldogs or Richmond wins
- They can finish as low as sixth if both those clubs win
Predicted finish: Fourth
Predicted final match-up: Fremantle v Sydney Swans, first qualifying final, Domain Stadium
5. Richmond
56 points (14 wins, seven losses) 121.4 per cent
The run home
Rd 23: North Melbourne at Etihad Stadium
If the Tigers win next week:
- They finish fourth if Gold Coast upsets the Sydney Swans
- They finish fifth as long as the Bulldogs don't thrash the Brisbane Lions by around 90 points
- They'll finish sixth if they only narrowly beat the Kangaroos and the Bulldogs thrash the Lions by around 90 points
If they lose next week:
- They'll finish sixth if Geelong beats Adelaide, but would still host an elimination final
- They'll finish seventh and travel to Adelaide Oval for an elimination final for the second straight year, this time against the Crows, if the Crows beat the Cats next week.
Predicted finish: Fifth
Predicted final match-up: Richmond v North Melbourne, first elimination final, MCG
6. Western Bulldogs
56 points (14 wins, seven losses) 116.8 per cent
The run home:
Rd 23: Brisbane Lions at the Gabba
If the Bulldogs win next week:
- They finish fourth if the Swans lose to Gold Coast and Richmond loses to North
- They could also finish fourth if the Swans lose and Richmond wins, but only narrowly and they beat the Lions by around 90 points.
- They finish fifth if Swans win and Richmond wins narrowly and they beat the Lions by around 90 points
- They finish sixth if Richmond wins but they don't gather enough percentage to overtake the Tigers
If they lose next week:
- They move to fifth if North thrashes Richmond and the Crows lose, provided they are not thrashed themselves
- They finish sixth if Geelong beats Adelaide
- They finish seventh if Adelaide beats Geelong
Predicted finish: Sixth
Predicted final match-up: Western Bulldogs v Adelaide, second elimination final, Etihad Stadium
7. Adelaide
54 points (13 wins, seven losses, one no result) 119.1 per cent
The run home:
Rd 23: Geelong at Simonds Stadium
If the Crows win next week:
- They finish fifth if Richmond and Bulldogs both lose
- They finish sixth if Richmond loses and Bulldogs win
If they lose next week:
- They finish seventh if Richmond wins
- They finish eighth if North Melbourne wins
Predicted finish: Seventh
Predicted final match-up: Western Bulldogs v Adelaide, second elimination final, Etihad Stadium
8. North Melbourne
52 points (13 wins, eight losses) 109.1 per cent
The run home:
Rd 23: Richmond at Etihad Stadium
If the Kangaroos win next week:
- They finish fifth if they thrash Richmond by close to 100 points, Geelong beats Adelaide comfortably and the Lions beat Bulldogs comfortably
- They finish sixth if they thrash Richmond by close to 100 points, Geelong beats Adelaide comfortably and the Bulldogs beat the Lions
- They finish seventh if Geelong beats Adelaide
If they lose next week:
- They finish eighth
Predicted finish: Eighth
Predicted final match-up: Richmond v North Melbourne, first elimination final, MCG
