North Melbourne has the chance to create history when it faces Sydney on Saturday night.
No side has ever made a preliminary final after finishing the home and away season in eighth spot, a feat the Kangaroos can accomplish if they defeat the Swans at ANZ Stadium.
Teams
North Melbourne
B: Michael Firrito, Scott Thompson, Shaun Atley
HB: Jamie Macmillan, Robbie Tarrant, Nick Dal Santo
C: Sam Wright, Jack Ziebell, Ben Jacobs
HF: Shaun Higgins, Drew Petrie, Taylor Garner
F: Ben Brown, Jarrad Waite, Brent Harvey
Fol: Todd Goldstein, Andrew Swallow, Ben Cunnington
Int: Lachlan Hansen, Lindsay Thomas, Robbie Nahas*, Sam Gibson
Emer: Ryan Bastinac, Luke McDonald, Kayne Turner
Unchanged
*Turner a late inclusion for Nahas
Sydney
B: D Rampe, T Richards, N Smith
HB: R Shaw, H Grundy, J McVeigh
C: L Jetta, T Mitchell, J Lloyd
HF: D Towers, A Goodes, H Cunningham
F: B McGlynn, K Tippett, I Heeney
Fol: M Pyke, J Kennedy, D Hannebery
Int: B Jack*, Z Jones, J Laidler, G Rohan
Emer: C Bird, J Rose, X Richards
In: N Smith
Out: S Reid (hamstring)
*Rose a late inclusion for Jack
ANZ Stadium trends
With the exception of its last outing against a rampant Hawthorn outfit, Sydney has been able to defend extremely well in recent times at ANZ Stadium.
Excluding the match against the Hawks, the Swans had only conceded an average of 72 points per game in their past eight games there. The skinnier dimensions of the ground – relatively similar to those at Simonds Stadium in Geelong – make the game more of a contested affair.
Since the start of 2014 across the AFL, contested possessions have accounted for 38 per cent of the total disposals in a game. However at ANZ Stadium, the number increases to almost 42 per cent.
Consider the Swans’ midfield – at full strength – contains all of Josh Kennedy, Kieren Jack, Dan Hannebery and Luke Parker and it’s easy to see why they enjoy such a good record at the venue.
Meanwhile on North’s side of the equation, it will be up to Andrew Swallow, Ben Cunnington, Jack Ziebell and co. to carry the contested possession load. The trio combined for 34 against the Tigers last Sunday and will need a similar output against the Swans.
Spreading the load
A feature of North’s forward setup in 2015 has been the variety of players to hit the scoreboard.
Seven players have kicked more than 20 goals for the season, which doesn’t include the likes of Ziebell and Cunnington - always dangerous around the goals.
The mixture of options will come in crucial against a Sydney defence experts at cutting off any side which gets too one-dimensional.
There were glimpses of what North could potentially do back in Round 11 – its 10 goals for the evening came from seven different sources, with no player kicking more than two.
Brown and Waite were goalless for the evening however, something which most likely can’t happen again if North wants to progress through to a preliminary final for the second straight year.
Redemption
The 71-point loss to the Swans at ANZ Stadium has been touched on a few times since the end of 2014, with the skipper the most recent to bring it up.
"You've got to look back at it. It's good motivation to go up there and get the job done," Swallow said.
Looking back at the loss will bring up one huge reason for it – North’s ball use and what happened after turnovers occurred.
Turnovers are regular events during a game, with the AFL average hovering at approximately the mid-60’s. However it’s how sides defend after coughing up possession which often defines its quality.
In 2014’s preliminary final, North was unable to defend after giving the ball up. It conceded a whopping 84 points to the Swans from turnovers, while only being able to score 13 of its own from the same area of the game.
Not coincidentally, the final margin was 71 points. It meant North had matched Sydney from clearances and kick-ins, the two other areas of the game a side can score from.
