Sixteen wins, two losses. Since late 2013 that's North Melbourne’s record in matches immediately after a defeat.*
Eleven wins, 14 losses is the Roos' record in the same period immediately following a win.
It lends credence to Brent Harvey’s words when talking to the media recently.
“When we’ve got our backs against the wall we probably play our best football,” the veteran said.
Another page in the 2015 book was written on Saturday night as North dismissed Geelong to the tune of 41 points. Free flowing attack combined with impressive pressure around the ball, all on display for arguably the best four-quarter performance of the year.
However, it would be fair to say it was almost expected, given the prior record. The challenge is to replicate the performance on Friday night.
North has only managed back-to-back wins once in 2015, with Round 16 on the horizon. The ease with which opponents have hit the scoreboard plays a large role in the inconsistency.
In their six games after a win so far this season, opponents have averaged almost 110 points per match. The matches in question:
- Round three v Port Adelaide: 17.11.113
- Round five v Hawthorn: 19.16.130
- Round seven v Essendon: 12.10.82
- Round eight v Fremantle: 17.13.115
- Round 11 v Sydney: 14.7.91
- Round 14 v Gold Coast: 19.11.125
In particular it’s the defending from turnovers which jumps off the page when looking for specific areas of the game for improvement.
North has conceded scores from its mistakes at an alarming rate in these matches - one which would rank 17th over the course of an entire season. It hasn’t been the sheer weight of turnovers to hurt the side - sitting at approximately the league average in the six games - rather the opposition’s ability to convert once it gained possession.
- Round eight: Fremantle kicked 13 of its 17 goals for the match from turnovers
- Round nine: Collingwood kicked five (of nine) goals from only 14 turnovers in the third quarter
- Round 11: Sydney kicked four (of five) goals from 21 turnovers in the second quarter
- Round 14: Gold Coast kicked five (of eight) goals from 20 turnovers in the fourth quarter
Compare the performance to the matches immediately following a loss, and the difference is clear.
From almost 110 points conceded per game in matches after a win, the number drops to a meagre 74 after a loss. As a point of comparison it would make North one of the top defences in the competition if maintained over a whole season.
- Round two v Brisbane: 7.9.51
- Round four v Geelong: 9.13.67
- Round six v Richmond: 10.14.74
- Round nine v Collingwood: 17.10.112
- Round 10 v West Coast: 10.15.75
- Round 12 v GWS Giants: 8.13.61
- Round 15 v Geelong: 11.13.79
With the exception of Collingwood in round nine, North was victorious in all encounters. The clear question is how the Kangaroos can concede approximately six goals less when backing up after a loss.
The answer lies in an area touched on earlier – turnovers.
In the games highlighted above, North’s defensive work after conceding possession has been elite. It’s not an exaggeration; if the number was maintained over a whole season it would be at a pace no AFL side has ever managed to better since the statistic has been tracked.
So the conundrum is how to apply a similar level of consistency when defending every week.
“We’ve had too many players in the past, when we’re under pressure, try to do things out of the ordinary, and that’s put us under real pressure,” North coach Brad Scott said on Saturday night.
The message has been echoed by players in recent days, indicating the Roos are well aware of the issue. This Friday night in prime time, the football public will have their next look at whether it shows on-field.
*Season ending games were not carried over into next year’s Round 1 encounter, games from Round 18, 2013
