After a six-game winning streak which contained five of the competition’s bottom six sides, North Melbourne’s draw is about to become extremely tough.
Three sides in the top six, all at Etihad Stadium, is the equation to end the home and away season. A minimum of one victory will be required to keep North’s finals chances alive, while sweeping Fremantle, the Western Bulldogs and Richmond would mean a possibility of an unlikely top four finish.
NMFC.com.au looks at what to expect from the next three weeks.
Round 21 v Fremantle
Current ladder position: 1st
Last six weeks: 4 wins, 2 losses; 80 points per game for, 78.6 points per game against
With constant speculation around the strength of the side Fremantle will send east, Thursday’s team selection could hold the key to the match.
If the Dockers had defeated the Eagles in Sunday’s Derby, they would have been three games clear on top, sealing at least one home final. But the loss has complicated matters; they’re now only a game and a half ahead of their cross-town rivals and have Hawthorn lurking ominously just behind.
It may mean a full strength Fremantle – as far as the injury and suspension list will allow – for the Kangaroos at Etihad Stadium. The last time the two sides met was in Round 8 in Perth, when the home side was never challenged en route to a 73-point victory.
Needless to say, much will need to change on Sunday, with North’s small defenders especially vital. At Domain Stadium, Matthew Pavlich, Matt Taberner and Aaron Sandilands kicked only four of Fremantle’s 17 goals. Meanwhile, Michael Walters was arguably best on ground with four of his own, while midfielders Michael Barlow, David Mundy and Lachie Neale floated forward to hit the scoreboard.
Round 22 v Western Bulldogs
Current ladder position: 4th
Round 21 fixture: v West Coast at Domain Stadium, Sunday 4:40pm EST
The surprise packet of 2015, the Bulldogs could potentially be a game clear inside the top four by the time Round 22 rolls around. Or, if North defeats them, it could then be a game clear of the Bulldogs with one match to play, such is a season with incredibly tight margins.
Both sides will be coming off a six day break, with the Bulldogs having the added difficulty of returning from Perth and a match against the rampant Eagles. Although North has won the last four meetings between the sides, history will count for little when Round 22 comes around.
Luke Beveridge has transformed his side into an outfit capable of both attractive, free-flowing football and grinding out low-scoring wins of attrition. The versatility makes the Bulldogs an extremely dangerous side.
As an additional footnote, with all things going to plan it will also be Shaun Higgins’ 150th AFL match, against his old side no less.
Round 23 v Richmond
Current ladder position: 6th
Round 22 fixture: v Essendon at MCG, Saturday 7:20pm EST
It’ll be Friday night football to finish off the home and away season, in front of a bumper crowd at Etihad Stadium.
The match could set the tone for a chaotic three days of matches. Spots both inside the four and eight will likely still be up for grabs, with a home final potentially the reward for the Kangaroos or Tigers.
For North there are some similarities in its history against the Bulldogs and Richmond. Five wins in a row is the current streak against the Tigers, but once again it will be a different looking opponent in Round 23.
The free-flowing Tiger outfit has been replaced by a side more measured and considered when bringing the ball forward. Coincidentally their approach changed after gifting 14 goals from turnovers to the Kangaroos in Round 6 at Blundstone Arena.
Richmond has won 10 of 13 games since and is now on track for its second consecutive finals appearance.
