This season's rule changes will see struggling teams "hammered" more often as they'll have "fewer weapons" to stop opposition run-ons, North Melbourne coach and Competition Committee member Brad Scott says.
In the most notable of this year's nine rules changes:
(1) At centre bounces, teams will be required to start six players in the each of the 50-metre arcs and the centre square zone;
(2) At kick-ins, the man on the mark will be pushed back an extra five metres, and players will be able to play on from the goalsquare without first kicking the ball to themselves.
Scott told AFL.com.au the extent to which the rule changes would affect play this season remained unclear, but said North's pre-season match simulation sessions strongly suggested the competition's bottom teams would be more vulnerable.
"Struggling teams are going to get hammered, and they'll get hammered more often, I've got little doubt about that," Scott said.
"I think when a side is down by 10 goals at three-quarter time, that could easily blow out to 15 goals in the next five minutes, and from there you're staring down a 100-point-plus loss.
"It's going to be daunting as a coach because there are fewer weapons in your arsenal to stop a run-on, and the weapons that you used to have – if they're still there – have been blunted to a certain degree."
On the other hand, Scott believes the new rules will make it easier for teams to launch effective comebacks, and could change commonly accepted notions of what constitutes a match-winning lead.
The Roos coach gave the example of a recent North match practice session when 'Team A' took a 10-goal lead into the final break only for 'Team B' to kick a series of quick goals at the start of the last term to get back into the game.
"Things can change so quickly when one team gets the momentum and as the coach on the other side there's not a whole lot you can do about it," Scott said.
The most obvious defensive tactic teams can no longer fall back on under the new rules is flooding their defensive 50m arcs with extra players at the restart of play.
This could be significant late in games, when teams clinging to narrow leads almost always resort to this ploy.
Most coaches believe the requirement that defenders and forwards start inside their 50m arcs – and can no longer station themselves on the edge of the centre square – will give players at centre bounces an extra two to three seconds to clear the ball.
This in turn, the coaches reason, will lead to quicker, cleaner inside 50m entries and give forwards more one-on-one marking opportunities.
Teams are also expected to find it harder to lock the ball inside their forward halves due to the kick-in changes.
However, as much as Scott expects the rule changes to influence results, the Roos coach is confident fans will be unable to detect major changes in the look and feel of the game.
"The objective from the Competition Committee is for it to be a better spectacle but to have fans walk away saying, 'I'm not sure why that was better' or 'I'm not sure why that was more free-flowing, but it was,'" he said.
"So the game still looks like it has for a long period of time, but just the spectacle overall has improved."
