60 points (15 wins, four losses) 142.6 per cent
The Hawks weren't happy with their performance against Melbourne but they can tune up for finals in three tough matches to come. With three more wins, top spot could be theirs. Two wins will almost certainly secure a top-two finish, provided they beat Geelong in round 22. Even one win should ensure they drop no lower than third and probably sets up a Geelong-Hawthorn qualifying final at the MCG. Hawks fans can clear their schedules for week one of the finals at the home of football.
The run home:
Rd 21: Fremantle at Patersons Stadium
Rd 22: Geelong at the MCG
Rd 23: Collingwood at the MCG
2. Sydney Swans
60 points (15 wins, four losses) 139.1 per cent
Pushed harder than many expected by Port Adelaide, the Swans should now ease their way towards September. John Longmire's men are unlikely to face too many difficulties against St Kilda (home) or the Western Bulldogs (away) in the next fortnight. Bank those wins and a top-two spot will be almost assured, especially if Hawthorn can defeat Geelong in round 22. The Swans can expect – and would look forward to – a finals-like intensity in round 23 if Richmond is still in the hunt for the top eight. Lock in a qualifying final in Sydney.
The run home:
Rd 21: St Kilda at the SCG
Rd 22: Western Bulldogs at Etihad Stadium
Rd 23: Richmond at ANZ Stadium
3. Geelong
60 points (15 wins, four losses) 113.1 per cent
Geelong's thrilling win over Freo has kept it in the mix for a top-two finish. The Cats' relatively low percentage could be a hindrance, though, with Chris Scott's men effectively a win behind Hawthorn and the Swans. The round 22 clash against the Hawks will be pivotal but Geelong needs to negotiate a tricky encounter against the in-form Blues first. Theoretically, the Cats could still finish as low as fifth but they can feel safe inside the top four given Port's recent form struggles. A home game against the Lions in round 23 should be an ideal chance to iron out any issues before finals.
The run home:
Rd 21: Carlton at Etihad Stadium
Rd 22: Hawthorn at the MCG
Rd 23: Brisbane Lions at Simonds Stadium
4. Fremantle
52 points (13 wins, six losses) 129.4 per cent
It's tough to point the finger at David Mundy, but his miss after the siren against Geelong has probably blown the Dockers' hopes of a top-two finish out of the water. Victory over the Hawks in round 21 would keep those slim chances alive, but a loss could see Freo slip to fifth behind the Power, who the Dockers host in round 23. Ross Lyon's men aren’t in the clear yet but it would be a brave pundit to bet against them playing in a qualifying final.
The run home:
Rd 21: Hawthorn at Patersons Stadium
Rd 22: Brisbane Lions at the Gabba
Rd 23: Port Adelaide at Patersons Stadium
5. Port Adelaide
48 points (12 wins, seven losses) 126.7 per cent
Saturday night's gallant loss to the Sydney Swans might have signalled a revival of sorts for the Power, but they must now win every game to have a realistic chance of finishing in the top four. Gold Coast (away) and Carlton (home) will be tricky, with Fremantle (away) looming in round 23. If things go horribly wrong in the final three weeks the Power could unthinkably find themselves in a scrap just to make the eight. A home elimination final looks the most likely scenario at this stage.
The run home:
Rd 21: Gold Coast at Metricon Stadium
Rd 22: Carlton at Adelaide Oval
Rd 23: Fremantle at Patersons Stadium
6. North Melbourne
44 points (11 wins, eight losses) 114 per cent
Back on the winners' list against GWS, the Roos are still a mathematical chance of making the top four. North could easily win its final three games against the Bulldogs, Crows and Demons but can't afford to take anything for granted given its rollercoaster season. The meeting with Adelaide in Hobart shapes as season-defining. Barring disaster, the Roos should at least earn a home elimination final.
The run home:
Rd 21: Western Bulldogs at Etihad Stadium
Rd 22: Adelaide at Blundstone Arena
Rd 23: Melbourne at Etihad Stadium
Where will North finish on the ladder? Have your say below.
7. Adelaide
40 points (10 wins, nine losses) 112.4 per cent
What a difference a week makes. Lambasted from all corners after their shock loss to the Eagles, Adelaide responded by belting the Brisbane Lions to the tune of 105 points. The thumping win saw the Crows climb three spots up the ladder to seventh but they are still no certainties to feature in September. Richmond will be playing to keep its season alive in round 21, while North will be no easybeats in Hobart a week later. If the Crows win at least one of those matches and knock over the Saints in round 23 they should be finals bound.
The run home:
Rd 21: Richmond at Adelaide Oval
Rd 22: North Melbourne at Blundstone Oval
Rd 23: St Kilda at Adelaide Oval
8. Essendon
40 points (10 wins, nine losses) 105.9 per cent
The Bombers have crashed back to the pack after their loss to Richmond. With West Coast and Carlton both hitting form, Essendon would only pencil in a victory against Gold Coast at Etihad Stadium in round 22 at this stage. One win is unlikely to be enough to feature in September and even two victories might not get them there without a percentage boost. But if the Bombers respond to the Tigers loss with three straight wins, they could yet host an elimination final. However unlikely it may be, the Bombers could finish as low as 12th if things go awry and they lose all three.
The run home:
Rd 21: West Coast at Etihad Stadium
Rd 22: Gold Coast at Etihad Stadium
Rd 23: Carlton at the MCG
9. Collingwood
40 points (10 wins, nine losses) 100.9 per cent
After failing to back up their stirring win over Port Adelaide against West Coast, the Pies are now locked in a battle to keep their finals dream alive. Collingwood should have too much class for the Lions and Giants in the next two weeks but needs to win big to boost its percentage. It's difficult to see the Pies upsetting their nemesis Hawthorn in the final round, which might leave Nathan Buckley's men relying on other results to sneak into the eight.
The run home:
Rd 21: Brisbane Lions at the MCG
Rd 22: Greater Western Sydney at Spotless Stadium
Rd 23: Hawthorn at the MCG
10. Gold Coast
40 points (10 wins, nine losses) 97.2 per cent
Gary Ablett's season-ending shoulder injury might be the making of Gold Coast in the next few seasons, but it's likely to cost them a historic finals appearance in 2014. The Suns were bitterly disappointing in the loss to Carlton, barely firing a shot with their season on the line. Two games at Metricon against Port and West Coast gives them some hope but a poor percentage looms as a big obstacle to overcome. Hard to see the Suns mustering a finals challenge now.
The run home:
Rd 21: Port Adelaide at Metricon Stadium
Rd 22: Essendon at Etihad Stadium
Rd 23: West Coast at Metricon Stadium
11. West Coast
36 points (nine wins, 10 losses) 111.8 per cent
Impressive wins over Adelaide and Collingwood in the past two weeks have left West Coast fans wondering what has taken the Eagles so long to hit their straps. Now only one win and minimal percentage from seventh spot, the Eagles are effectively facing three elimination finals on the run home. West Coast is sure to encounter a fired-up Bombers outfit next round in a season-defining game for both sides. If the Eagles can engineer a win, finals are a realistic chance with two highly winnable matches against Melbourne (home) and Gold Coast (away) to round out the season.
The run home:
Rd 21: Essendon at Etihad Stadium
Rd 22: Melbourne at Patersons Stadium
Rd 23: Gold Coast at Metricon Stadium
12. Richmond
36 points (nine wins, 10 losses) 104.1 per cent
Six straight wins and the Tiger Army is starting to believe the great escape is on. Richmond's clash against Adelaide shapes as a ripper. If the Tiges can overcome the Crows, they should be either in the eight or on the cusp before heading to Sydney in round 23 to face the Swans. It remains unlikely Richmond will defy history and become the first team to reach the finals from 3-10, but what a climax to the season it would be if they're still alive come round 23.
The run home:
Rd 21: Adelaide at Adelaide Oval
Rd 22: St Kilda at the MCG
Rd 23: Sydney Swans at ANZ Stadium
