Follow Scott on Twitter: @ScottyBarby
Topics covered
1. General overview
2. Win/loss indicators
3. Centre square punch
4. Forward line woes
5. Who will win
General overview
This Friday night North will travel down the highway to face a Geelong outfit in the mix for yet another top four finish. The Cats’ home at Simmons Stadium hasn’t been a breeding ground of success for North in the past, with Geelong boasting a 7-1 record since 2004.
After ending the long standing hoodoos away to Sydney and Fremantle, the Kangaroos will be looking to break the shackles and continue their winning form as road underdogs in 2014.
North couldn’t be facing the Cats at a more opportune time. The suspension of Geelong’s x-factor Steve Johnson only compounds the issue of heavy legs after a return trip from Perth and bruising loss to the Dockers.
With wins this season against Fremantle, Port and Sydney, the Roos should be confident about their chances of adding Geelong to their list of big name scalps – especially given their recent performances against the Cats.
Everything points to a tight tussle with just five total scoring shots separating the two from an attacking standpoint and both teams possessing a top six defence.
Win/loss indicators
When everything is going right Geelong and North have a supreme advantage at utilising the football more effectively than their opponents. Geelong operates by locating targets in space via foot whilst North generates attack through continued run and carry.
The Kangaroos are more potent when winning first use. Despite Geelong experiencing a wealth of opportunity forward, it’s North that makes the most of its chances once inside fifty, all behind a league best scoring efficiency differential in wins.
| Wins | Effective Kicks | Kicking Efficiency | Disposals | Marks | Contested Possession | Clearances | Tackles | Inside 50's | Marks inside 50 | Goal scoring efficiency |
| Geelong | +22 | +5.6% | +10.5 | +15.5 | +7.2 | +0.5 | +15 | +14 | +4.8 | +1.2% |
| North | +20 | +2.2% | +50.8 | +9.6 | +13.6 | +4.2 | +4 | -1.6 | +1.8 | +10.6% |
In order to leave the Cattery with a victory on Friday night, the Kangaroos will need to establish early dominance at stoppages through winning first use, maintaining the wealth of possession and limiting turnovers. In losses this season, Geelong ranks number one for percentage of disposals uncontested, whilst ranking last for percentage of disposals contested and second last for clearance differential.
During a loss this season North has averaged 75 turnovers per game compared to 60.2 in wins. It is largely a product of being forced out of its comfort zone, evidenced by possessing the third highest mark play on percentage. Force the Kangaroos to play on with minimal man movement and the end result is a turnover.
North’s -11.6 per cent time in possession differential in losses also ranks the second worst of any side. When the Kangaroos are starved of possession and can’t win their own ball it often spells disaster on the scoreboard. North currently sits top five in the competition for effective kicks, disposals and uncontested possession so it’s more than capable of maintaining its own ball provided the work rate is there.
Without the football North must maintain a sound structure defensively forward of centre and force Geelong into stagnant play. In losses this season Geelong has possessed a -15 long kick differential and +14 short kick differential.
With seven players inside the top fifty for meters gained the Cats are kings when gaining territory; they thrive off locating and winning those one on one contests. Geelong’s 6241.4 meters gained per game in wins ranks second in the competition compared to 5712.8 meters gained in losses.
Sap the Cats territory and make them play a short and methodical sideways style and they become a predictable outfit once penetrating inside fifty.
If you break down Geelong’s output via quarters lost this season you have a far greater data set to analyse. It presents the expected narrative, a Cats side that essentially goes in circles via a methodical nature.
The long ball is eliminated, minimal territory is gained, they hit their targets (-16 turnovers) but opportunities are restricted due to being obliterated at stoppages (-69 points from stoppages) and once the slower forward movement is made it’s repelled at ease.
| Quarters lost | Long kicks | Short kicks | Effective kicks | Kicking efficiency | Disposals | Marks inside 50 | Contested possession | Clearances | Tackles | Goal scoring efficiency |
| Geelong | -0.7 | +0.4 | -0.4 | +2.37% | -8.1 | -1.1 | -7.4 | -1.7 | +8.1 | -10.4% |
Centre square punch
From a scoring perspective both North and Geelong find positive results coincide with an advantage at stoppages. When the sides outscore or break even at sourcing points from the coalface they’re more than likely taking home four points.
It’s no secret that over the last few seasons Geelong has been recognised as the best transition side in football and 2014 remains no different. The Cats are second overall for possession gains and points from turnover differential, but it’s when teams get on top of them in the middle that things can go pear shaped.
Geelong is the only finals side to rank outside the top ten defensively for points conceded at stoppages compared to North which ranks second defensively and holds teams to a league low strike rate.
Counter attack football and punishing sides that turn the ball over is still worth its weight in gold (seven of the top eight sides in possession gains are inside the eight) but win/loss data suggests that it’s at stoppages where you truly break a quality outfit.
Win/Loss Scoring Source Data
| Wins | Points from stoppages | Points from turnovers |
| Geelong | +9.17 | +27.16 |
| North Melbourne | +17 | +21.2 |
| Losses | Points from stoppages | Points from turnovers |
| Geelong | -31.5 | 0 |
| North Melbourne | -16.33 | -19 |
Rolling mauls and rugby scrums have been hot topics of late but we’re likely to see that particular brand of football making only the odd cameo at best. The sides have adopted a clean brand of footy, ranking fifteenth and seventeenth for stoppages per game.
This makes winning rare clearance opportunities supremely vital and on paper it looks to be North with the better depth and balance at its disposal.
Geelong runs a rather exclusive core through their centre square consisting of Joel Selwood, Steve Johnson, Hamish McIntosh, Cam Guthrie, Dawson Simpson and George Horlin-Smith.
North’s stoppage unit is made up of Todd Goldstein, Ben Cunnington, Levi Greenwood, Nic Dal Santo, Jack Ziebell, Daniel Wells, Andrew Swallow and Ryan Bastinac.
The absence of Johnson for Geelong makes the clearance battle particularly enthralling with an already thin side needing to find another extractor to fill the Johnson workload, similar to North adjusting to life without Daniel Wells and previously Andrew Swallow.
It allows Levi Greenwood to tag Joel Selwood exclusively if necessary and hopefully emulate the job he did for the first three quarters on Suns skipper Gary Ablett a fortnight ago. Cam Guthrie has featured in a run with role for the Cats this season but the removal of Stevie J is likely to limit his defensive focus.
It increases the chances of Harvey, Dal Santo and Gibson all getting off the chain whilst chief extractors Cunnington, Swallow and Ziebell can provide the inside balance and focus on what they do best.
Forward line woes
Converting scoring opportunities hasn’t been an issue for North, it’s the sparse rate that those opportunities arrive at and lack of accuracy which has made the going tough at times.
The Kangaroos rank eleventh in the competition for kicks inside fifty and fourteenth for marks inside fifty but their fifth ranked efficiency at hitting the scoreboard has kept their potency at a competitive level. Geelong ranks fifth for kicks inside fifty but tenth overall for scoring efficiency with both squads seemingly more comfortable generating scores from general play and an open environment.
On the defensive side of the ball is where the game is likely to be won with both sides among the competitions best behind differing philosophies.
Geelong allows the second fewest forward fifty entries by foot yet concedes at a far more rapid rate once opponents break the line. North meanwhile concedes the fifth most entries by foot yet holds teams to a league low goal scoring efficiency with its ability to repel the ball quite remarkable.
| Defensive output | Kicks inside 50 | Retain % | Mark % | Goal scoring efficiency |
| Geelong | 2nd | 14th | 9th | 7th |
| North Melbourne | 14th | 3rd | 5th | 1st |
Geelong will be focused on locating their key power forward Tom Hawkins as often as possible. Hawkins has kicked 21 goals and produced 11 assists from his 62 targets in 2014. The only other Cats to feature in the top fifty for forward targets are Jimmy Bartel (22) and Hamish McIntosh (20).
It’s pretty obvious where the ball will be directed, and when the Cats severely struggle it’s a lack of locating set shot targets that’s their downfall as evidenced by their quarters lost data. Geelong has been held goalless from set shots in seven of nine quarters lost this season.
Geelong Quarters Lost
| Points per quarter | Set shots | On run | Snap | Mark, play on |
| Opponent | 14.66 | 5.33 | 4 | 0.22 |
| Geelong | 4.1 | 3.3 | 3.88 | 0.61 |
| Differential | -10.56 | -2.03 | -0.12 | +0.49 |
As for the Kangaroos’ ability to repel scoring shots, there’s a buffet of data suggesting they’re more than capable. North allows the fewest goals from set shots, Fremantle and Port rank next in line; two sides that defeated Geelong. North ranks second for lowest opponent set shot accuracy ahead of both Fremantle (fourth) and Port (fifth). The Kangaroos also force the most stoppages from opponent kicks inside fifty.
When Geelong does venture forward the preference is to locate short marking targets. North leads the competition for lowest opponent goal scoring efficiency for short kicks inside fifty.
The stars further align in the Kangaroos favour when you consider Johnson’s history with forward fifty entries. He leads Geelong for kicks inside fifty and specifically short kicks inside fifty, locating a target 27.5% of the time compared to the Cats squad average of 19.9%. From Johnson’s short kicks inside fifty at Simmons Stadium in 2013, the Cats registered a goal 30% of the time compared to the squad average of 24.3%. Johnson’s absence will be felt on Friday night.
For the Kangaroos, Drew Petrie will need to up his output against a veteran savvy defence. Petrie has registered just seven goals and six assists from his 42 targets in 2014; only Travis Cloke and his nine goals from 68 targets looms as less efficient. Aaron Black and Majak Daw will also hold defenders accountable which should provide ample opportunity for key crumbers Lindsay Thomas and Robbie Nahas.
Who will win and why?
This Kangaroos outfit has proven they can not only win in a hostile environment but can do so against the highest quality of opposition.
North knows the blueprint for beating this Geelong side. Last time they met North dictated play with 100 more disposals, won individual contests via a +7 contested marks differential, had first use of the footy with 23 more contested possessions, 6 more clearances and converted their opportunities with +10.6 per cent goal scoring efficiency.
Accuracy in front of goal and a fast start is a must. The sides rank sixteenth and seventeenth for goal kicking accuracy this season after ranking fourth and first overall last year. Geelong has a 7-1 record in opening quarters in 2014 whilst North has been outscored by 33 points.
The skinny makeup of the Cats home ground works for North; it has been able to funnel ball to their advantage at grounds slender in width.
Simonds Stadium (115 meters) is skinnier than both Etihad (128.8) and Patersons Stadium (122.4), the two grounds where this defensive setup has looked most effective.
The skipper is back, the squad balance looks ripe to tackle the Cats and the game plan is built to limit pain through the corridor and a run on of opposition scores; two areas where Geelong has previously exceled against North.
It’s a game plan that has held up against the best of the best when the mindset has been right. The Kangaroos have relished the tag of underdog this season and they possess the necessary makeup to upset yet another contender in Geelong.
Tip: North Melbourne by 9 points.
