As the NAB Challenge gets underway, many are making predictions around which team will achieve the ultimate glory in 2014.
While every team is supposedly ‘flying’ in the pre-season, nobody really knows how they’ll perform until that first bounce in Round 1 of the season proper.
One measure however, is the raw statistics.
In the second NMFC.com.au ‘List Analysis’ pieces, we look at the quality of North’s list and the club’s greatest areas for improvement.
List quality
Champion Data’s quality rankings have long been the topic of much debate amongst supporters, but they do paint a bright picture for North.
Based on a comprehensive system measuring player performance and what correlates to winning an AFL game, the formula is weighted across the past two seasons (75% in 2013, 25% in 2012).
North is ranked seventh in the league for list quality.
It’s a sign of how much the Kangaroos have developed in recent years, with Brad Scott pumping games into youngsters with one eye focused on the future.
According to AFL Prospectus, North boasts three players in the ‘elite’ category.
How the numbers are calculated:
Elite – Top 10% of position type
Above average – Top 11%-35% of position type
Average – Top 36%-65% of position type
Below average – Top 66%-90% of position type
Poor – Bottom 10% of position type
Those who are yet to debut or under 10 games aren’t included in the rankings system.
Perhaps most importantly, it’s down the spine where North is best equipped.
North is the only team in the competition with three key-position players considered in the elite bracket – Todd Goldstein (ruck), Drew Petrie (key forward) and Scott Thompson (key defender).
While none of the Kangaroos’ midfielders are considered elite, there’s plenty of room for movement. Ben Cunnington, Ryan Bastinac and Jack Ziebell are all considered ‘above average’ and with another season under their belts, will be looking to push even higher.
Illustrating the quality of North’s on-ball brigade, it also has Andrew Swallow, Daniel Wells, and new addition Nick Dal Santo in the same category.
Based on 2013 rankings, both Wells and Ziebell are tipped to move up into the elite category with another strong season.
North has experience on its side too. The average age of its midfield is number 1 against all other midfielders and number 1 for games played.
Of the 15 rated midfielders, just three are rated ‘below average’.
Interestingly, North’s quality rating across the board is 54.7%, putting it above teams like Collingwood, Geelong and Essendon.
But perhaps it’s the Kangaroos’ depth across the board that’s their greatest strength.
With 12 players (out of 30 ranked players) ranked ‘above average’, only Hawthorn, West Coast and Fremantle are above North, with Carlton and the Bulldogs at the same level.
Above average rankings
Adelaide – 10 above average
Brisbane – 7 above average
Carlton – 12 above average
Collingwood – 7 above average
Essendon – 11 above average
Fremantle – 13 above average
Geelong – 10 above average
Gold Coast – 7 above average
GWS Giants – 3 above average
Hawthorn – 15 above average
Melbourne – 8 above average
North Melbourne – 12 above average
Port Adelaide – 9 above average
Richmond – 10 above average
St Kilda – 8 above average
Sydney – 11 above average
West Coast – 14 above average
Western Bulldogs – 12 above average
Keep in mind the Eagles were a semi-finalist in 2012 and have 14 players not ranked, having not appeared in enough games.
The same goes for the Bulldogs (equal with North) who have 22 players considered ‘below average’ or without enough games to be ranked.
North on the other hand boasts 10 players in the ‘average’ category, including Aaron Black and Shaun Atley who are expected to make significant inroads.
What does it all mean? Well the Kangaroos' top 22 players are all rated average or above, a feat only four other clubs including last years’ Grand Finalists and two others can boast (Fremantle, Hawthorn, Adelaide, Collingwood).
In any winning side, consistency across the field is pivotal to success.
If a few of North’s up-and-comers can step into the next bracket, perhaps it could prove to be a winning formula.
Stats aside, all will be revealed when North Melbourne takes on Carlton on Saturday in the first round of the NAB Challenge.
North’s highest-ranked
Elite
Todd Goldstein (ruck)
Drew Petrie (key forward)
Scott D.Thompson (key defender)
Above average
Andrew Swallow (mid)
Brent Harvey (mid forward)
Nick Dal Santo (mid)
Daniel Wells (mid)
Jack Ziebell (mid)
Ben Cunnington (mid)
Ryan Bastinac (mid)
Aaron Mullett (defender)
Lindsay Thomas (forward)
