As the home and away season draws near, many are making predictions around which team will achieve the ultimate glory in 2014.
While every club is supposedly ‘flying’, nobody really knows how they’ll perform until that first bounce in Round 1.
One measure however, is raw statistics.
In the third of NMFC.com.au’s ‘List Analysis’ pieces, we look at North’s positional depth compared to other teams around the league.
While there’s no proven formula for success, having the right mix of players in every position is vital.
The loss of a key player can throw teams into disarray, particularly if there isn’t significant cover.
But just what is the right balance of defenders, midfielders and forwards?
Every coach would have a theory and it often results in drafting techniques not necessarily based around selecting the best player, but the option most likely to fill a hole on the club’s list.
Champion Data lists North’s positional breakdown as follows:
(Based on senior list only)
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Key defenders: Scott Thompson, Nathan Grima, Lachlan Hansen, Cameron Delaney, Joel Tippett
General defenders: Aaron Mullett, Shaun Atley, Scott McMahon, Michael Firrito, Taylor Hine, Mitch Wilkins, Luke McDonald, Max Warren
Rucks: Todd Goldstein, Daniel Currie, Eric Wallace, Ben Brown
Midfielders: Andrew Swallow, Nick Dal Santo, Daniel Wells, Jack Ziebell, Ben Cunnington, Ryan Bastinac, Levi Greenwood, Sam Gibson, Jamie Macmillan, Liam Anthony, Ben Jacobs, Brad McKenzie, Trent Dumont, Tim McGenniss, Kayne Turner
Mid-forwards: Brent Harvey, Leigh Adams
General forwards: Lindsay Thomas, Sam Wright, Robin Nahas, Kieran Harper, Taylor Garner
Key forwards: Drew Petrie, Aaron Black, Robbie Tarrant, Majak Daw, Tom Curran, Mason Wood
(Includes rookies not included in Champion Data figures)
Starting from the back, North has three experienced key defenders in Scott Thompson, Nathan Grima and Lachlan Hansen.
Cameron Delaney is inexperienced and when you consider reigning premiers’ Hawthorn has seven players listed as key defenders, it could put a question mark on North’s depth.
But keep in mind Joel Tippett is not listed (being a rookie) and Scott McMahon and Michael Firrito are more than capable of holding down a key post.
The Hawks have Brian Lake, Josh Gibson, Ryan Schoenmakers and Ben Stratton, but it’s youth that holds up the other three key spots (Will Langford, Angus Litherland, Jordan Kelly), meaning injuries could have a huge impact.
At the other end of the scale, the Bulldogs have just two players listed as key defenders, both with less than 60 games to their name (Jordan Roughead, Michael Talia).
Brendan McCartney’s team was the third-worst for points against last season, only ahead of Melbourne and Greater Western Sydney – perhaps a sign of the added pressure on inexperienced talls down back.
In the general defenders category, North has a mix of run-with and attacking options. Shaun Atley, Aaron Mullett and Luke McDonald lead the way with their run and carry, while Taylor Hine, Scott McMahon and Michael Firrito are more one-one-one types.
Interestingly, it’s the Dockers who are level with North and the Demons in terms of listed defenders.
All three have 11 backmen, but Fremantle’s numbers are most surprising when you consider it conceded the least points of any team last season.
A whole-team approach to defence is clearly evident with Ross Lyon’s team.
While limited in the key-posts, the Bulldogs have 11 players classified as general defenders, the most of any team.
The split - Defenders
(senior-listed only)
Adelaide: 4 key defenders, 10 general defenders
Brisbane: 6 key defenders, 5 general defenders
Carlton: 3 key defenders, 9 general defenders
Collingwood: 3 key defenders, 10 general defenders
Essendon: 5 key defenders, 8 general defenders
Fremantle: 6 key defenders, 5 general defenders
Geelong: 6 key defenders, 6 general defenders
Gold Coast: 5 key defenders, 10 general defenders
GWS: 5 key defenders, 8 general defenders
Hawthorn: 7 key defenders, 7 general defenders
Melbourne: 3 key defenders, 8 general defenders
North Melbourne: 4 key defenders, 7 general defenders
Port Adelaide: 4 key defenders, 9 general defenders
Richmond: 6 key defenders, 7 general defenders
St Kilda: 6 key defenders, 6 general defenders
Sydney: 4 key defenders, 9 general defenders
West Coast: 3 key defenders, 10 general defenders
Western Bulldogs: 2 key defenders, 11 general defenders
Through the midfield, there are a couple of obvious outliers.
Melbourne, looking to bolsters its depth, made a conscious effort to recruit seasoned midfielders.
Dom Tyson, Bernie Vince, Vic Michie and Daniel Cross were among those brought in to strengthen the on-ball brigade.
The average percentile of all rated Melbourne midfielders is just 30%, meaning plenty of depth and room for movement will be vital in Paul Roos’ first year as coach. He’ll be looking to see who can step up.
At the other end of the spectrum, the Swans, premiers in 2012, have just eight permanent midfielders – but it’s the quality that counts.
Josh Kennedy, Kieren Jack, Ryan O’Keefe and Daniel Hannebery are among an elite group, while Luke Parker, Tom Mitchell, Craig Bird and Lewis Jetta are considered mid-forwards.
Sydney’s numbers only look lower due to boasting players with multiple talents.
North is another team that has plenty of quality through the middle. With six players in the ‘above average’ class playing on-ball, more than any other team, Brad Scott has a solid base to work with.
As stated in a previous List Analysis article, the Kangaroos also have the most experienced midfield group in the league.
The split – Midfielders
(senior-listed only)
Adelaide: 10
Brisbane: 11
Carlton: 15
Collingwood: 13
Essendon: 14
Fremantle: 12
Geelong: 13
Gold Coast: 12
GWS: 14
Hawthorn: 11
Melbourne: 17
North Melbourne: 13
Port Adelaide: 13
Richmond: 10
St Kilda: 14
Sydney: 8
West Coast: 14
Western Bulldogs: 11
The split of ruckmen can often depend on the spread of experience.
Big men are known to take longer to develop and experienced backups are now becoming more common with coaches opting for a quick fix rather than throwing youngsters in the deep-end.
Collingwood is a prime example. The departure of Darren Jolly means veteran Ben Hudson (rookie), at 35, gets another year. His experience will be valued immensely with young Brodie Grundy and Jarrod Witts the Pies’ other options, with Quinten Lynch a capable pinch hitter in the middle.
Hawthorn has five listed ruckmen, but outside Ben McEvoy and David Hale, the other three combine for just five games. Alastair Clarkson will take solace from the fact Jarryd Roughead can also go through the middle when needed.
Carlton is well stocked too, with Matthew Kreuzer, Robbie Warnock and rookie Cameron Wood boasting significant AFL experience. Levi Casboult (key-forward) can also float through.
But Fremantle is perhaps the most advanced. Jonathon Griffin, Zac Clarke and Aaron Sandilands are all rated ‘average’ or above in Champion Data’s quality rankings.
The Saints have youngsters Billy Longer and Tom Hickey, who have played just 31 games between them.
The Bulldogs have just one recognised ruckman, Will Minson, but Tom Campbell and Ayce Cordy are capable of playing in the middle.
For North, Todd Goldstein is the only categorized ruckman to have played a game, although you could easily throw Majak Daw into the mix. While Daniel Currie is yet to play a game, Brad Scott would no doubt have confidence he could hand the 25-year-old a debut given his form in the last two pre-season campaigns.
Drew Petrie can also run through the middle to give Goldstein a chop-out.
The split – Rucks
(senior-listed only)
Adelaide: 2
Brisbane: 2
Carlton: 2
Collingwood: 3
Essendon: 5
Fremantle: 4
Geelong: 2
Gold Coast: 5
GWS: 5
Hawthorn: 5
Melbourne: 3
North Melbourne: 3
Port Adelaide: 2
Richmond: 2
St Kilda: 3
Sydney: 3
West Coast: 3
Western Bulldogs: 1
While the Bulldogs are perhaps lacking some depth down back, they have plenty of attacking options.
With 15 players classified as forwards, they lead the way. It’s little wonder they managed three goals a game more in 2013 than the previous year, and the addition of Stewart Crameri will be a handy one.
The Lions, Giants and Bombers look top-heavy with eight key forwards each – the latter perhaps the one to keep an eye on with just one player (Michael Hurley) classified in the ‘average’ or above range in terms of quality.
Up-and-comers like Joe Daniher will no doubt have opportunities to impress.
The Swans will face a balancing act trying to get Lance Franklin, Joel Tippett, Sam Reid and perhaps Lewis Roberts-Thomson into the one side.
North is lucky to have Drew Petrie, Aaron Black, Majak Daw and Robbie Tarrant as its options in the key posts, but Mason Wood and Tom Curran are untried.
The addition of Robin Nahas means it has plenty of depth in the ‘general forwards’ area too.
Lindsay Thomas, Kieran Harper, Leigh Adams and Taylor Garner are among those who can play small in attack, while Brent Harvey (mid-forward) is likely to spend more time around goals later in his career.
The split - Forwards
(senior-listed only)
Adelaide: 5 mid-forwards, 4 general forwards, 5 key forwards
Brisbane: 4 mid-forwards, 4 general forwards, 8 key forwards
Carlton: 2 mid-forwards, 3 general forwards, 4 key forwards
Collingwood: 3 mid-forwards, 4 general forwards, 4 key forwards
Essendon: 2 mid-forwards, 4 general forwards, 8 key forwards
Fremantle: 3 mid-forwards, 5 general forwards, 5 key forwards
Geelong: 2 mid-forwards, 7 general forwards, 4 key forwards
Gold Coast: 0 mid-forwards, 4 general forwards, 4 key forwards
GWS: 2 mid-forwards, 4 general forwards, 8 key forwards
Hawthorn: 1 mid-forward, 5 general forwards, 4 key forwards
Melbourne: 1 mid-forward, 4 general forwards, 4 key forwards
North Melbourne: 2 mid-forwards, 5 general forwards, 6 key forwards
Port Adelaide: 2 mid-forwards, 5 general forwards, 5 key forwards
Richmond: 2 mid-forwards, 6 general forwards, 5 key forwards
St Kilda: 1 mid-forward, 6 general forward, 4 key forwards
Sydney: 5 mid-forwards, 4 general forwards, 5 key forwards
West Coast: 0 mid-forwards, 5 general forwards, 5 key forwards
Western Bulldogs: 2 mid-forwards, 8 general forwards, 5 key forwards
