Dream Team market watch: round six
WE'RE six rounds into the 2010 Toyota AFL Dream Team season, and bargain buys are becoming progressively scarcer for those seeking a quick performance boost.
Gun first-year players such as Freo's Michael Barlow, Melbourne's Jack Trengove, Geelong's James Podsiadly and North Melbourne's Ryan Bastinac have all shot up in value, to the point where their cost begins to outweigh their potential return.
However, the progress of the season brings inevitable form fluctuations, and coaches are well advised to turn their attention to the other end of the market watch spectrum.
Bulldog defender Ryan Hargrave endured a wretched start to the season with untimely injuries hampering his performance.
His value plummeted by almost $120,000, but his 108-point game on Friday night showed just why he was rated one of the most valuable DT buys before the season.
At just $292,100, Hargrave looks to be an irresistible purchase if your defence needs a lift.
Geelong young gun Joel Selwood is another who looms as great buying after a moderate start to 2010 sent his price plunging by more than $70,000 to $379,700.
In the absence of Gary Ablett and Joel Corey, he starred with 126 points against Richmond and looks to be back to his damaging best.
But be warned, bargain hunters: not all the underperforming guns are worth your dollar.
Carlton's Brock McLean was a DT lock for several seasons at the Demons, but his new role and the Blues' plethora of midfield stars mean his output is far below his historical average.
At less than $300,000, he appears good value, but it's unlikely he'll be any more than a good ordinary Dream Team performer, regardless of his real-world worth to his new club.
If you're one of those coaches unwilling to gamble on a form turnaround from an underperforming player, fear not. There are still reasonable prospects at the pointy end of the market watch form ladder.
None is more attractive than Carlton defender Paul Bower ($313,100), who is averaging a whopping 111 points after just two games. His value is set to rise considerably, and his mobility suits Brett Ratten's running game plan to perfection.
Essendon's Nathan Lovett-Murray ($353,000) is another worth considering. Typically just a mid-range DT player, the running half-back boasts an average in excess of 100 points to outperform the likes of Matthew Pavlich, Jonathan Brown, Adam Cooney and Lenny Hayes.
Finally, the Magpies are on a roll, and two of the young players driving their good form are Sharrod Wellingham and Chris Dawes.
The horse has bolted on those looking for a tidy profit on Wellingham, with his value rising by more than $75,000. Happily, his output shows no signs of slowing and he is better value than many around his price point.
However, there is still some money to be made on Dawes ($233,800), who has assumed Anthony Rocca's old role of the gorilla in the Collingwood forward 50. Two games and an 85-point average suggest there is more to come from the young goalkicker.
Top 10 improvers
1. Michael Barlow (Freo) $294,400 (+$188,600)
2. Ryan Bastinac (NM) $233,200 (+$143,700)
3. Alex Silvagni (Fre) $218,100 (+$140,300)
4. Beau Waters (WCE) $291,800 (+$139,000)
5. Matt Maguire (BL) $239,300 (+$137,600)
6. Mitch Duncan (Geel) $226,200 (+$136,700)
7. James Podsiadly (Geel) $211,300 (+$133,500)
8. Ben Nason (Rich) $221,900 (+$132,400)
9. Todd Banfield (BL) $225,300 (+$130,800)
10. Jack Trengove (Melb) $268,800 (+$115,300)
Top 10 losers
1. Richard Tambling (Rich) $270,700 (-$119,500)
2. Ryan Hargrave (WB) $292,100 (-$117,400)
3. Leon Davis (Coll) $320,000 (-$115,400)
4. Josh Fraser (Coll) $286,600 (-$99,200)
5. Chad Cornes (PA) $286,800 (-$96,500)
6. Dean Cox (WCE) $383,500 (-$88,000)
7. Jason Akermanis (WB) $327,900 (-$85,300)
8. Kurt Tippett (Adel) $239,100 (-$80,300)
9. Michael Doughty (Adel) $303,300 (-$79,300)
10. Darren Jolly (Coll) $305,300 (-$76,200)
The views in this story are those of the author and not necessarily those of the clubs or the AFL.