28 points (seven wins, seven losses), 104.78 per cent
The run home:
Rd 16: Carlton at Etihad Stadium
Rd 17: Richmond at the MCG
Rd 18: Melbourne at Etihad Stadium
Rd 19: Western Bulldogs at Etihad Stadium
Rd 20: Essendon at Etihad Stadium
Rd 21: Collingwood at Etihad Stadium
Rd 22: Fremantle at Etihad Stadium
Rd 23: Greater Western Sydney at Skoda Stadium
Pushed form side West Coast to within two points but could not manage to fall over the line. The next two weeks against the Blues and the Tigers, who are both in similar positions, will determine if Brad Scott's men deserve to make finals. Tests against the Bombers and the Pies in rounds 20 and 21 could bring finality to that sentiment.
North Melbourne v Carlton
Friday July 13, Etihad Stadium
7:50pm
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1. Sydney Swans
44 points (11 wins, three losses), 146.13 per cent
The run home:
Rd 16: West Coast at Patersons Stadium
Rd 17: St Kilda at the SCG
Rd 18: Gold Coast at Metricon Stadium
Rd 19: Carlton at Etihad Stadium
Rd 20: Collingwood at ANZ Stadium
Rd 21: Western Bulldogs at Etihad Stadium
Rd 22: Hawthorn at the SCG
Rd 23: Geelong at Simonds Stadium
Top spot might not mean much to coach John Longmire, but the Swans keep defying the doubters. West Coast in the west is just about the toughest challenge in football next week and they then come up against the steadfast Saints. The Swans face a tough road home, punctuated by Hawthorn at home and Geelong away as they try to sew up their place in the top four. An in-form Adam Goodes could prove a wildcard, as he works his way back from a lengthy injury layoff.
Predict how the 2012 season will play out using the official AFL ladder predictor
2. West Coast
44 points (11 wins, three losses) 139.93 per cent
The run home:
Rd 16: Sydney Swans at Patersons Stadium
Rd 17: Adelaide Crows at AAMI Stadium
Rd 18: Brisbane Lions at Patersons Stadium
Rd 19: Fremantle at Patersons Stadium
Rd 20: Geelong at Patersons Stadium
Rd 21: Port Adelaide at AAMI Stadium
Rd 22: Collingwood at Patersons Stadium
Rd 23: Hawthorn at the MCG
A top-four finish appears certain thanks to the Eagles' imperious form at home. The club's only remaining trips across the Nullarbor are to play both South Australian clubs, before a last-round appointment with Hawthorn that should be a mouth-watering precursor to the finals. The possible return of Josh Kennedy before the finals will provide a welcome boost, but the Eagles have scratched Mark Nicoski for the rest of this season.
3. Adelaide
40 points (11 wins, three losses) 123.29 per cent
The run home:
Rd 16: Greater Western Sydney at Skoda Stadium
Rd 17: West Coast at AAMI Stadium
Rd 18: Geelong at Simonds Stadium
Rd 19: Essendon at AAMI Stadium
Rd 20: Fremantle at AAMI Stadium
Rd 21: Brisbane Lions at the Gabba
Rd 22: Melbourne at the MCG
Rd 23: Gold Coast at AAMI Stadium
The Crows can pretty much lock in a win over the Giants before they face demanding examinations against the Eagles at home, the Cats in Geelong and the Bombers at home. Win some or all of those games and they should stamp themselves in the top four, as their last month should be a relative breeze. Midfield depth remains a real strength, but Taylor Walker's suspension is an unneeded distraction.
4. Collingwood
44 points (11 wins, three losses) 120.32 per cent
The run home:
Rd 16: Geelong at the MCG
Rd 17: Hawthorn at the MCG
Rd 18: Greater Western Sydney at Skoda Stadium
Rd 19: St Kilda at the MCG
Rd 20: Sydney Swans at ANZ Stadium
Rd 21: North Melbourne at Etihad Stadium
Rd 22: West Coast at Patersons Stadium
Rd 23: Essendon at the MCG
Hit a roadblock on Friday night against the Blues and now face some stern tests in the coming weeks. Coach Nathan Buckley expects to be without Sharrod Wellingham for Saturday night's date with the Cats after his hit on Kade Simpson, but might soon regain Scott Pendlebury, Chris Tarrant and Nathan Brown. An away trip to face the Giants in round 18 offers respite before a testing run home that will challenge, rather than concern.
5. Hawthorn
40 points (10 wins, four losses) 152.65 per cent
The run home:
Rd 16: Western Bulldogs at Etihad Stadium
Rd 17: Collingwood at the MCG
Rd 18: Essendon at the MCG
Rd 19: Geelong at the MCG
Rd 20: Port Adelaide at Aurora Stadium
Rd 21: Gold Coast at the MCG
Rd 22: Sydney Swans at the SCG
Rd 23: West Coast at the MCG
In destroying the Giants, the Hawks boosted their standing by 17 percentage points, which could be vital in the race for the top four. After a should-win game against the Dogs next week, the fixture becomes more difficult. Games against the Pies, Bombers and Cats shape as critical for their top-four hopes. Captain Luke Hodge's availability will be important to the Hawks' finals hopes, while a lot still rests on the shoulders of their No.23.
6. Essendon
40 points (10 wins, four losses) 127.63 per cent
The run home:
Rd 16: Port Adelaide at AAMI Stadium
Rd 17: Geelong at Etihad Stadium
Rd 18: Hawthorn at Etihad Stadium
Rd 19: Adelaide at AAMI Stadium
Rd 20: North Melbourne at Etihad Stadium
Rd 21: Carlton at the MCG
Rd 22: Richmond at the MCG
Rd 23: Collingwood at the MCG
Saturday night's thumping by St Kilda burst the Dons' bubble in more ways than one. Dumped from the top four, the Bombers will sweat on Michael Hurley's injured hamstring, while the Saints proved that it is possible to put the clamps on Brownlow contender Jobe Watson. A testing run home includes games against four of the current top seven. Two remaining trips interstate are to come, with three games on home turf at Etihad Stadium and three closing blockbusters at the MCG.
7. Geelong
36 points (nine wins, five losses), 112.92 per cent
The run home:
Rd 16: Collingwood at the MCG
Rd 17: Essendon at Etihad Stadium
Rd 18: Adelaide at Simonds Stadium
Rd 19: Hawthorn at the MCG
Rd 20: West Coast at Patersons Stadium
Rd 21: St Kilda at Etihad Stadium
Rd 22: Western Bulldogs at Etihad Stadium
Rd 23: Sydney Swans at Simonds Stadium
Leigh Matthews is among the pundits to have declared Geelong's dynasty over. But the Cats continue to hang tough and remain firmly in flag calculations. An impending lethal five-game stretch against Collingwood, Essendon, Adelaide, Hawthorn and West Coast will give an accurate description of where they sit. Survive that and finish in the eight, and the Cats will be a scary proposition for opposition teams in the finals.
8. St Kilda
30 points (seven wins, seven losses), 121.26 per cent
The run home:
Rd 16: Brisbane Lions at the Gabba
Rd 17: Sydney Swans at the SCG
Rd 18: Western Bulldogs at Etihad Stadium
Rd 19: Collingwood at the MCG
Rd 20: Melbourne at the MCG
Rd 21: Geelong at Etihad Stadium
Rd 22: Greater Western Sydney at Etihad Stadium
Rd 23: Carlton at Etihad Stadium
Took the Bombers to task on Saturday night in a performance that made amends for losing against the Roos the week before. The next four games will be pivotal. Win any less than three of those four, and the Saints face an uphill battle to feature in the finals. Games against Melbourne and GWS are likely wins in August. Geelong and Carlton will be more daunting.
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9. Carlton
24 points (six wins, seven losses) 108.74 per cent
The run home:
Rd 16: North Melbourne at Etihad Stadium
Rd 17: Western Bulldogs at Etihad Stadium
Rd 18: Richmond at the MCG
Rd 19: Sydney Swans at Etihad Stadium
Rd 20: Brisbane Lions at Etihad Stadium
Rd 21: Essendon at the MCG
Rd 22: Gold Coast at Metricon Stadium
Rd 23: St Kilda at Etihad Stadium
After looking all doom and gloom, the Blues did the unthinkable and beat Collingwood on Friday night to put their season back on track. This week's game against North Melbourne is huge in terms of finals calculations and, after that, Carlton cannot afford few slip ups for the rest of the season. Marc Murphy's return could be imminent, but injuries to key players Jarrad Waite, Jeremy Laidler and Lachie Henderson may yet prove too difficult to overcome.
10. Richmond
28 points (seven wins, seven losses) 107.70 per cent
The run home:
Rd 16: Gold Coast at Cazaly's Stadium (Cairns)
Rd 17: North Melbourne at the MCG
Rd 18: Carlton at the MCG
Rd 19: Brisbane Lions at the Gabba
Rd 20: Western Bulldogs at the MCG
Rd 21: Fremantle at Paterson Stadium
Rd 22: Essendon at the MCG
Rd 23: Port Adelaide at the MCG
Following a tumultuous week off the field, the Tigers posted an uninspiring win against Melbourne at the weekend. They will expect a handsome win against the Suns this week, before regaining Dustin Martin for huge encounters with North Melbourne and then Carlton that could decide the race for eighth spot. Percentage boosts in games against the Lions, the Dogs and the Power will be vital. Needless to say if they drop those games, their finals hopes will be on thin ice.
12. Fremantle
28 points (seven wins, seven losses) 94.51 per cent
The run home:
Rd 16: Melbourne at Etihad Stadium
Rd 17: Greater Western Sydney at Patersons Stadium
Rd 18: Port Adelaide at AAMI Stadium
Rd 19: West Coast at Patersons Stadium
Rd 20: Adelaide at AAMI Stadium
Rd 21: Richmond at Patersons Stadium
Rd 22: North Melbourne at Etihad Stadium
Rd 23: Melbourne at Patersons Stadium
Sunday's scrappy win keeps Freo's finals hopes flickering, and Ross Lyon's men can expect to gain further momentum in the next two rounds. The western derby sandwiched between two trips to Adelaide won't be easy, but otherwise the schedule is favourable, with at least five games Freo could expect to win. The possible return of injured key players Nat Fyfe, Aaron Sandilands, Stephen Hill and Zac Dawson could aid a late charge for September.
13. Brisbane Lions
24 points (six wins, eight losses), 92.81 per cent
The run home:
Rd 16: St Kilda at the Gabba
Rd 17: Gold Coast at the Gabba
Rd 18: West Coast at Patersons Stadium
Rd 19: Richmond at the Gabba
Rd 20: Carlton at Etihad Stadium
Rd 21: Adelaide at the Gabba
Rd 22: Port Adelaide at AAMI Stadium
Rd 23: Western Bulldogs at the Gabba
The Lions faced a reality check against the Swans at the weekend, plain and simple. They need to win all or most of their home matches and then pinch a few away games against the Eagles, the Blues or the Power to boost their finals prospects. Could still be in the mix if they can build some momentum and get on a winning streak.
14. Western Bulldogs
20 points (five wins, nine losses) 77.97 per cent
The run home:
Rd 16: Hawthorn at Etihad Stadium
Rd 17: Carlton at Etihad Stadium
Rd 18: St Kilda at Etihad Stadium
Rd 19: North Melbourne at Etihad Stadium
Rd 20: Richmond at the MCG
Rd 21: Sydney Swans at Etihad Stadium
Rd 22: Geelong at Simonds Stadium
Rd 23: Brisbane Lions at the Gabba
Coach Brendan McCartney spoke about the need to blood youngsters after Sunday's loss in Perth, which suggests the Bulldogs have shelved their finals aspirations. Experienced forward Daniel Giansiracusa has been a key loos, and Adam Cooney looks a shadow of his former self. Next week's clash at Etihad Stadium could be ugly, and it is tough to see them winning any of their remaining matches.
15. Port Adelaide
16 points (four wins, 10 losses) 81.78
The run home:
Rd 16: Essendon at AAMI Stadium
Rd 17: Melbourne at TIO Stadium
Rd 18: Fremantle at AAMI Stadium
Rd 19: Greater Western Sydney at Skoda Stadium
Rd 20: Hawthorn at Aurora Stadium
Rd 21: West Coast at AAMI Stadium
Rd 22: Brisbane Lions at AAMI Stadium
Rd 23: Richmond at the MCG
The Power's chances of playing finals this year are mathematical only. One more defeat is enough to put paid to their hopes. Recent performances such as the win at home against Carlton suggest they can pose problems for the Bombers next week, and they could play an important role in determining the make-up of the eight. A closing month against the Hawks, Eagles, Lions and Tigers offers opportunity to mess with others' finals plans.
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