6. North Melbourne
48 points (12 wins, seven losses), 114.07 per cent? ?
The run home:?
Rd 21: Collingwood at Etihad Stadium
Rd 22: Fremantle at Etihad Stadium?
Rd 23: Greater Western Sydney at Skoda Stadium? ?
An eighth fighting victory in nine games leaves North comfortably perched within the eight. Next week's game is another tough assignment, while Fremantle will have everything to play for the following week. The closer at Skoda Stadium should guarantee a percentage boost, plus the welcome chance for Brad Scott to rest some of his stars ahead of their September campaign.
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1. Sydney Swans
60 points (15 wins, four losses), 146.62 per cent
The run home:
Rd 21: Western Bulldogs at Etihad Stadium
Rd 22: Hawthorn at the SCG
Rd 23: Geelong at Simonds Stadium
Despite failing to break their lengthy hoodoo against the Pies, a top-four finish remains likely for the Swans. However, a home qualifying final is far from guaranteed. With three teams now level on 60 points, the Swans could finish as low as sixth. Hawthorn in round 22 is the key game for their top-two hopes. Lose that and a home qualifying final is likely to slip beyond their reach.
Predict how the 2012 season will play out using the official AFL ladder predictor
2. Adelaide?
60 points (15 wins, four losses) 127.90 per cent? ?
The run home:?
Rd 21: Brisbane Lions at the Gabba?
Rd 22: Melbourne at the MCG?
Rd 23: Gold Coast at AAMI Stadium?
The Dangerfield show inspired the Crows past Freo on Saturday, their final genuine test before finals. Games against the Lions, Demons and Gold Coast makes Adelaide a monty for a top-two berth and probably the minor premiership. Kurt Tippett's ongoing concussion issues are a worry, but Adelaide would need to fall foul of at least one major upset to be denied a home qualifying final.
3. Collingwood
60 points (15 wins, four losses) 122.34 per cent
The run home:
Rd 21: North Melbourne at Etihad Stadium
Rd 22: West Coast at Patersons Stadium
Rd 23: Essendon at the MCG
The Pies draw level on points with the top of the ladder after continuing their mastery of the Swans - and don't be surprised if Saturday night's game serves as a preview of a qualifying final. A third or fourth-placed finish appears Collingwood's likeliest fate, setting up a potential trip to Sydney in week one of the finals. Beating West Coast in round 22 would change all that. A win in the west would confirm the Pies' top-four status and perhaps book a home final. Like the Swans, they could drop to as low as sixth if results go against them.
4. Hawthorn
56 points (14 wins, five losses) 156.55 per cent
The run home:
Rd 21: Gold Coast at the MCG
Rd 22: Sydney Swans at the SCG
Rd 23: West Coast at the MCG
The Hawks overcame a sluggish start to pulverise the Power in Launceston and are near certainties to maintain their one-game buffer over the Eagles this week against the Suns. But that's when things become difficult. Games against the Swans (round 22) and Eagles (round 23) will determine the final placings and could yet see the Hawks slip from the top four at West Coast's expense. Lance Franklin's continuing spell on the sidelines won't help.
5. West Coast
52 points (13 wins, six losses) 122.76 per cent
The run home:
Rd 21: Port Adelaide at AAMI Stadium
Rd 22: Collingwood at Patersons Stadium
Rd 23: Hawthorn at the MCG
The Eagles kept alive their hunt for the double chance with Friday night's grinding win against the Cats. Crucial clashes with the Pies and Hawks round out a difficult end to the season, and a home elimination final appears the side's most realistic hope. Demonstrating how tightly packed the ladder remains, West Coast could still theoretically miss the eight.
7. Geelong
48 points (12 wins, seven losses), 112.88 per cent
The run home:
Rd 21: St Kilda at Etihad Stadium
Rd 22: Western Bulldogs at Simonds Stadium
Rd 23: Sydney Swans at Simonds Stadium
The Cats saw their top four chances evaporate in the west on Friday night, and need two more wins to guarantee a finals berth. Thanks to two games at their home fortress, they remain well placed to earn a home elimination final. This week's game against the Saints is a potential hurdle, with the Swans a tough proposition in the final round. ? ?
8. Essendon
44 points (11 wins, eight losses) 110.07 per cent? ?
The run home:
Rd 21: Carlton at the MCG
Rd 22: Richmond at the MCG?
Rd 23: Collingwood at the MCG? ?
Sunday's loss combined with Freo's failure to win in Adelaide leaves the Dons still clinging to eighth spot by percentage. However, Essendon's run home is far the more difficult of the two teams. Beating Carlton next Saturday is essential. Win that plus the game against Richmond and the Dons should hold their grip on the eight, presuming the Roos are too strong for Fremantle in Melbourne in round 22.
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9. Fremantle
44 points (11 wins, eight losses) 108.60 per cent
The run home:
Rd 21: Richmond at Patersons Stadium
Rd 22: North Melbourne at Etihad Stadium
Rd 23: Melbourne at Patersons Stadium
Freo finds itself outside the eight after falling short of the Crows on Saturday. Ross Lyon has assured fans that his team's destiny remains in its own hands and Freo would have to fancy its chances of beating the Tigers (round 21) and Demons (round 23) on home soil. That leaves a round-22 meeting with North Melbourne that will be a virtual elimination final.
10. St Kilda
40 points (10 wins, nine losses), 120.74 per cent
The run home:
Rd 21: Geelong at Etihad Stadium
Rd 22: Greater Western Sydney at Etihad Stadium
Rd 23: Carlton at Etihad Stadium
Kept their slim finals hopes alive with a win against the Demons marred by a knee injury to Nick Riewoldt. That makes Friday night's game against Geelong tougher still, and the Saints can't afford to lose if they are to secure a top-eight spot. Mathematically, they could finish as high as fifth if all results fall their way.
11. Carlton
40 points (10 wins, nine losses) 105.12 per cent
The run home:
Rd 21: Essendon at the MCG
Rd 22: Gold Coast at Metricon Stadium
Rd 23: St Kilda at Etihad Stadium
Chris Judd's return will be a major fillip ahead of the gigantic clash against Essendon next Saturday. Lose that blockbuster and the Blues can pretty much draw curtains on their season. Only an unlikely run of results elsewhere combined with a hefty boost in percentage would see them scrape in to the eight.
12. Richmond
36 points (nine wins, 10 losses) 112.04 per cent
The run home:
Rd 21: Fremantle at Patersons Stadium
Rd 22: Essendon at the MCG
Rd 23: Port Adelaide at the MCG
A Trent Cotchin masterclass kept the Tigers' season chugging along and yes, they can still make the finals. More realistically, they have the chance to play wrecking ball to others' September ambitions, starting with Freo in the west next week. Making the eight would require an unbeaten finish to the season combined with a perfect storm of results elsewhere, including Essendon and Fremantle winning only one more game apiece. Even the most hopeful Tiger fan has lurking doubts.
