NMFC.com.au called upon Scott Barby to write this week’s Definitive Preview. The opinions of Scott are his own and do not reflect those of North Melbourne.
Follow Scott on Twitter: @ScottyBarby
Topics Covered
1. A different kind of monster
2. Then and now
3. Off the boil
4. Worth your weight in gold
5. Who will win and why?
Two wins down, two wins to go is the scenario for the Kangaroos if they’re to lift a premiership cup in 2014. As was the case last week, the odds of a side in North’s position advancing to the final Saturday in September are historically slim, and just like last week there’s no reason why the Kangaroos can’t buck the trend again.
25 of the 28 teams coming off rest leading into a preliminary final have been victorious, but the good news for those who love historical trends is if North is to get the job done they’re statistically likely to win the whole thing.
The three sides who managed to win a preliminary final from the Kangaroos’ current position all went on to win the flag. Brisbane in 2003, Sydney in 2005 and West Coast of 2006 are enough proof to suggest there are no guarantees in September, and if you don’t bring your best you can pack your bags regardless of reputation.
As far as form is concerned Sydney and North are running red-hot. The Swans have won 17 of their last 19, while the Kangaroos head into the contest on the back of a six game winning streak and season-best form.
Sydney enters the arena as deserved favourites, but this is one matchup that looms as quite the arm wrestle and one where the underdog is every chance of causing an upset.
A different kind of monster
The enthralling aspect of this particular Preliminary final matchup is it offers a completely different challenge for the Roos compared to the previous two finals.
Both Essendon and Geelong were heavy skill-dependent sides who thrive on the outside and in transition, while the Swans play a more direct long ball style with success reliant upon winning one-on-one contests.
In simple terms it takes a complete game to defeat the Swans and if a Grand Final berth is to come the Kangaroos will need to match the Swans output on the inside and find more space on the outside; even then the job is only half done. Navigating the opposition’s stingy defence and repelling their star-studded forward line loom as big hurdles, but if there’s one area of weakness you can bank on from Sydney its charity in the form of turnovers.
There’s going to be opportunities for this Kangaroos’ side to hit the scoreboard in transition, provided they’re switched on and the work-rate out of the back half flows at pace in unison.
No side in the competition commits more turnovers forward of centre than Sydney, and if North is to prosper it will need to counter attack at speed.
In losses this season the Swans average 6.5 more turnovers per game in their forward half than the next ranked side, and against the Kangaroos in Round 4 committed 61 turnovers forward of centre. It was their highest total all year and the third most of any side this season.
Turnovers per game | Forward half | Defensive half |
North | 41.6 (10th) | 21 (9th) |
Sydney | 47.2 (1st) | 19.8 (14th) |
In regards to North’s capabilities of exploiting this deficiency, on the season to date it is the fifth-best side at converting turnovers in its opponents’ forward half into scores.
In the last eight weeks no side in the competition has been more potent. The Kangaroos 32.6 points per game from 39 turnovers forced in their defensive half is both the highest total and most efficient of any side. Sydney may be cleaner going forward compared to Round 4, and they set up better than any other side when it comes to locking the ball in, but the Kangaroos are also far more effective at reaping maximum reward from a counter-attack in recent times.
It’s no secret that Scott Thompson is the lead roadblock when repelling opposition thrusts, but from an offensive standpoint it’s actually Michael Firrito who delivers the best ROI out of defence. The Roos’ veteran is responsible for 53.1% of all North score launches from defensive 50, making him the third most potent contributor from score launches behind Todd Goldstein and Nick Dal Santo.
If the Kangaroos can exploit the Swans’ tall forward-line and work extra numbers loose to intercept or force dead balls from forays forward, their chances of rebounding at pace are enhanced.
The slower a side transitions, the more at home the Sydney outfit becomes and the likelihood of damaging turnovers in your defensive half increases. John Longmire’s team averages 56.9 entries in wins and 54 entries in losses. Their midfield is simply too good to be starved of the footy - it’s how you repel the effectiveness of those entries which matters.
Sydney kicks inside 50 | Retain % | Mark % | Goal scoring efficiency |
Wins | 43.1% | 18.7% | 21.2% |
Quarters lost | 39.7% | 15.5% | 16.2% |
Then and now
Plenty has been said about the Swans’ improvement since Round 4, and there’s no doubting in the majority of areas those improvements are vast, but as far as ironing out all the forward-line kinks the Swans still have work to do.
Round 4 showed us a Sydney side who couldn’t hit a target up forward to save themselves. On that day the usually dependable names (Lance) Franklin, (Nick) Malceski, (Ben) McGlynn, (Josh) Kennedy, (Jarrad) McVeigh, (Luke) Parker, (Lewis) Jetta and (Kieren) Jack combined for 60% of all Swans’ entries by foot (60 in total) with just four resulting in a mark inside 50, with only two finishing in goals.
It was as much wayward skills as it was stout defence from North, as Thompson, Firrito, Nathan Grima and Nick Dal Santo combined for 32 rebound 50’s. Thompson and Firrito notched up 29 intercept possessions between them.
Round 4 kicks inside 50 | Kicks | Retain % | Goal scoring efficiency |
North | 41 | 46.3% | 19.5% |
Sydney | 60 | 38.3% | 6.7% |
Since that Round 4 clash, Sydney has continued their high rate of entries, ranking equal first in the competition with Port Adelaide for kicks inside 50 per game. But contrary to popular belief, the Swans have only experienced a modest improvement in forward-line efficiency in that span ranking ninth for retain percentage, 16th for mark percentage and eighth for goal-scoring efficiency.
The primary providers at the Swans aren’t as black and white as most would assume. Jetta’s outside run has proved valuable, while classy midfielders Parker, Hannebery and Malceski all ranked inside the top ten at the club for entries inside 50 by foot, but outside the top 20 for scoring efficiency.
Providers | Kicks inside 50 | Kicks inside 50 retained | Score involvements | Scoring efficiency | Score assists |
Leroy Jetta | 102 | 43 | 129 | 36.3% | 27 |
Kieren Jack | 85 | 38 | 157 | 32.9% | 37 |
Josh Kennedy | 84 | 32 | 179 | 35.7% | 24 |
Jarrod McVeigh | 73 | 34 | 155 | 38.4% | 35 |
Lance Franklin | 72 | 35 | 187 | 51.4% | 20 |
When North do have opportunities to repel any shaky entries or force a stoppage one man to keep an eye on at all times is Josh Kennedy. Kennedy is incredibly dangerous at forward stoppages ranking second for clearances and second for points from clearances inside forward fifty. On the whole Sydney as a team average the second most points from stoppages forward of centre with the Pyke/Kennedy and Pyke/Parker combinations forming the most damaging one-two punch for Sydney at the coalface.
As good as Kennedy is the Sydney forward line lives and dies on the output of one Buddy Franklin. Buddy is the most targeted player in wins this season and produces the second most points of any player (31.6). Franklin has totalled 129 shots at goal for the Swans well ahead of Kurt Tippett who is next at the club with 49. Buddy is the Sydney barometer and when supply is up and in the direction of the nine million dollar man the results are largely devastating for opponents. There’s no tougher task in football from a one on one matchup perspective and it poses an enthralling challenge for Kangaroos defender Scott Thompson who is likely to get first crack.
Wins | Targets | Points contributed |
Lance Franklin | 11.9 | 31.6 |
Kurt Tippett | 9 | 20 |
Adam Goodes | 3.6 | 15.3 |
Sam Reid | 2.6 | 7.4 |
Ben McGlynn | 1.8 | 12.3 |
Harry Cunningham | 1.5 | 8.8 |
Losses | Targets | Points contributed |
Lance Franklin | 8.5 | 15.5 |
Kurt Tippett | 8 | 13.5 |
Adam Goodes | 3.5 | 15 |
Sam Reid | 3.5 | 8.8 |
Ben McGlynn | 1.8 | 14.3 |
Harry Cunningham | 0.6 | 4 |
Off the boil
As far as impressive units go the Swans rate as good as they get, so much so that their five losses this season essentially tell us next to nothing about any consistent weaknesses.
Three of Sydney’s five defeats occurred in the first four weeks of the year, while its loss to Richmond in round 23 came without some vital players.
To enhance the sample size and expose any weak underbelly, we’ve broken down the Swans’ output in quarters lost, narrowing the number to 28 periods.
To the Swans’ credit, they’ve been incredibly consistent since the turn of the bye losing just 12 of 56 quarters, compared to 16 of 36 quarters prior. Make no mistake, defeating this Sydney outfit is as tough a task as there is in football and the exciting element is this North unit has the goods to get it done.
Teams who have troubled Sydney this season consistently pressed an advantage in eight core areas. They largely broke even winning first use, exploited space on the outside through short uncontested targets, utilised their skills by foot more effectively and restricted the Swans’ efficiency from forward entries.
Locating targets in space when navigating out of defence couldn’t be more important with Sydney applying more tackles than any other side this season and forcing the fourth-most stoppages in their forward half.
When the Kangaroos are on they dominate most in the eight designated categories that trouble their opposition. In Round 4, North had fewer long kicks (a Sydney staple), were belted for inside 50’s (-18) and marks inside 50 (-8), yet won each of the categories vital to defeating the Swans this season.
What hurt Sydney in Round 4 remains the case today, only now it is much tougher to break down over four quarters. Still, the Kangaroos are one of only five sides to be the Swans this season.
The preliminary final stage may be a foreign one for this North outfit but the task at hand is not. If the Kangaroos play on their terms, they play in a Grand Final.
Differentials | Short kicks | Effective kicks |
Sydney quarters lost | -3.46 | -3.46 |
North in wins | +22.9 | +22.7 |
North Round 4 | +28 | +28 |
Differentials | Disposals | Uncontested marks | Uncontested possession |
Sydney quarters lost | -10.21 | -2.39 | -6.10 |
North in wins | +45.1 | +13.9 | +35.1 |
North Round 4 | +39 | +13 | +36 |
Differentials | Contested possession | Clearances | Goal scoring efficiency |
Sydney quarters lost | -4.35 | -1.82 | -5.25% |
North in wins | +9.5 | +3.2 | +9.2% |
North Round 4 | +9 | +1 | +18% |
Worth your weight in gold
During the Kangaroos’ six-game winning streak, Goldstein’s impact has been terrific. If North is to find cracks in Sydney’s armoury, its work at stoppages will play a major role, and it all starts with Goldstein giving his centre square core first use.
Mike Pyke is no slouch as a full-time ruckman and it doesn’t take much delivery for the Swans talented midfield to take advantage. Having said that, Goldstein is the superior player and the numbers do all the talking.
In the past six weeks Goldstein has averaged 13.4 disposals and 5 clearances per game to lead all rucks. His hit-out to advantage rate of 29.7% ranks only behind Aaron Sandilands and Sam Jacobs this season, whilst his hit-outs resulting in a score percentage is second to Jacobs.
Ruckman (avg.) | Ruck contests | Hit-outs | Hit-outs to advantage | Hit-out win % | Clearance success % | Hit-out score % |
Todd Goldstein | 76.6 | 35.2 | 10.4 | 45.9% | 41.4% | 11% |
Mike Pyke | 63.8 | 27.2 | 7.1 | 42.7% | 39.8% | 8.2% |
Despite being littered with skill, the Swans midfield isn’t overly reliant upon generating scoring punch from clearances, but rather heavily focused on limiting the impact of their opponents. Sydney leads the competition defensively for points from stoppages and it’s behind this heaven-high defensive wall, that they quash a side’s ability to hit the scoreboard.
Despite 57% of all scores in the AFL this season being sourced via turnovers, it’s generating an advantage at stoppages which has aligned with success against the Swans. In Sydney losses this season, opponents experienced a +14.74 increase in scores via stoppages compared to games they won, while the Swans themselves averaged 15.74 fewer points.
The same held true in quarters that Sydney lost as they experienced a points from stoppages differential of -123. In the Round 4 fixture the Kangaroos pressed home a 29-point advantage at stoppages, registering 46 points from 46 clearances compared to Sydney’s 17 points from 45 clearances.
On that day 81% of Kangaroos’ scores were via the corridor compared to the Swans’ 44%. We all know how dangerous turnovers can be, but crack this Swans outfit in the middle and the indicators suggest the flow-on effect is plentiful.
Goldstein was the most important player on the park last week and his supply to Andrew Swallow, Ben Cunnington and Levi Greenwood this week will offer up a wealth of opportunity to press an advantage against an opponent who possesses very few weaknesses.
Score source win/loss differentials | Points from stoppages for | Points from stoppages against |
Sydney | -15.74 | +14.74 |
Scores from stoppages | Games | Clearances | Points from clearances |
JP Kennedy | 21 | 134 | 138 |
Andrew Swallow | 17 | 120 | 135 |
Ben Cunnington | 24 | 137 | 124 |
Dan Hannebery | 17 | 74 | 77 |
Ben McGlynn | 17 | 70 | 64 |
Craig Bird | 19 | 63 | 59 |
Jack Ziebell | 19 | 71 | 70 |
Levi Greenwood | 21 | 83 | 64 |
Who will win and why?
If North is to advance to a Grand Final it’ll be on the back of the midfield breaking even at stoppages and the defence’s ability to hold firm and move the ball with speed.
First point of call for the Kangaroos is a competitive start. Sydney has outscored opponents by 83 points in the first ten minutes of games this season, leading to a league best 17 first quarter wins.
If North can grab the ascendency in the middle early by winning first use and maintaining possession the rest of the squad, particularly the back six can settle into the game much like last week.
North has the second best-disposal differential in wins but the worst effective kicks, short kicks and uncontested marks differential in losses.
Without the ball the Kangaroos are at their worst.
The pressure goes up a notch when the stakes are this high and contested ball becomes paramount, but North cannot lose sight of adhering to what has worked all season and over the past fortnight as the Swans do everything to make it sloppy.
As for Sydney, they’re going to play their normal game regardless of the scoreboard or anything the Kangaroos do. The Swans own the highest long kicks, marking, tackling, inside 50 and marks inside 50 differential in losses. They’ll back themselves in and be unrelenting with pressure at all times for four quarters, which is why a strong start from the Kangaroos is so imperative.
When Sydney ventures forward the key is not to panic. Remember, no side turns the ball over more frequently forward of centre than the Swans. If North brings a similar work-rate and level of pressure to that of the previous fortnight, they’re going to create several chances to rebound.
Protecting the space in front of Franklin and Tippett, and forcing them to lead wide or up the ground is a bonus, but the kicker is to not break down in the areas more easily negated, such as letting Kennedy or McGlynn hit the scoreboard from a forward stoppage. You cannot afford to set up incorrectly against this Swans’ unit.
Over the last six weeks the Roos have been the number one counter-attacking side in the competition, and on the season to date the third best side at generating scores via the corridor. When those turnover opportunities arise, North has to transition quickly out of the defensive half and in numbers. Utilise the run and carry of (Sam) Gibson, (Daniel) Wells, (Brent) Harvey and Shaun Atley through the corridor.
Engage the lead-up forwards (Aaron) Black, (Ben) Brown and (Drew) Petrie at every opportunity; this forward-line has confidence and is in season best form. They will put up points if supply is there.
The Kangaroos’ game-plan is fit to knock off the Swans if executed correctly, and Brad Scott’s team has every reason to play with high belief and confidence, which could be the driving force behind causing the upset result. You don’t defeat the top ten sides in the competition if you’re not good enough, and you don’t remain as the only side yet to lose to the remaining Premiership hopefuls if you’re not a legitimate contender yourself.
This North Melbourne outfit can defeat anyone on any stage, and they have a golden opportunity to prove it to the football world on Friday night.
Tip: North Melbourne by 6 points
