Throughout the week, the message has been consistent from the playing and coaching staff – the last four to six weeks is more relevant than Round 1.

With that in mind, this week’s Scouting Report focuses on Essendon’s run into the finals.

#1: Inside 50’s and scoring efficiency

Essendon: Round 18-23
Inside 50’s: 57.2 per game (Rank: 1st)
Goal scoring efficiency: 40.8% (Rank: 17th)
Total scoring efficiency: 21.6% (Rank: 15th)

The weight of numbers has played a big part of Essendon’s finish to the season. The Bombers are a clear first in total inside 50’s, almost two per game clear of Sydney and five per game clear of the competition average.

However it has masked a lack of efficiency, which was particularly evident against Richmond in Round 20. On that evening at the MCG, the Bombers could have had a match-winning lead by quarter-time. Instead, their 16 entries resulted in just five scoring shots and just a two goal edge.

Why is it relevant to North?

Throughout the year, the Kangaroos have consistently been able to defend opposition inside 50’s. They rank third for fewest scores conceded per entry (44.2%), and goals conceded per entry (22.3%).

Looking specifically at instances in the closing stages of the season, the second quarter against Adelaide in Round 22 springs to mind. The Crows had a whopping 20 inside 50’s in the term, but only managed three goals. It proved a crucial period of play which ended up having a big influence on the result.

#2: Scores by quarter

Essendon: Round 18-23
First quarter: -37 points (won 3, lost 3)
Second quarter: +5 points (won 2, lost 4)
Third quarter: -5 points (won 2, lost 4)
Fourth quarter: +26 points (won 3, lost 3)

It is perhaps in this statistic where looking at the close of the season is more important than the year as a whole. In Essendon’s first 17 games, it only lost five first quarters and had a point differential of +101. Conversely it only won five final terms, conceding its most total points in that period.

However, the Bombers have flipped in the run-in to finals. In a call-back to the inside 50 efficiency, Essendon has struggled to score in first quarters, with only 95 points in the last six weeks. It’s ranked 17th in the AFL.

Why is it relevant to North?

While North started the season by giving up leads, it has been rectified in recent weeks. Brad Scott’s team has only lost one first term in the last six weeks and has a differential of +45.

However the second quarter has been an issue, with the Kangaroos failing to win one since Round 17 against St Kilda. Considering the Bombers turned on a stunning eight-goal burst last week against the Blues in the second term, it looms as the danger period.

#3: Mark-play on percentage

Essendon: Round 18-23
37.4% - Rank 2nd

The enduring vision of Round 1 for Kangaroos’ fans is one of deliberately static play from Essendon, favouring possession retention and slowing play down. It worked well for the Bombers as they eventually won by 39 points.

Over the last six weeks Essendon has changed its style, moving the ball much quicker. The 37.4 per cent for mark-play on is well up on the 25.2 per cent registered in Round 1.

Why is it relevant to North?

In the first half of the year, the Kangaroos struggled at times against sides who elected to slow the play down and utilise uncontested marks.

While North rectified the issue to a large extent in the run home, the Bombers moving away from that tactic can only help the home side on Saturday night.