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This Friday night will see North Melbourne travelling to Perth to tackle last season’s grand finalists Fremantle. Both sides hold a 3-2 record and will enter the contest with an eye on fortifying their prospects as a top four commodity.
To date both the Kangaroos and Dockers have produced impressive displays sandwiched between inconsistencies in performance, and both will no doubt be keen to right the ship coming off a loss.
For Brad Scott's team, it’s an opportunity to climb home and away fixture Everest with a win at Patersons Stadium, and prove the interstate victory over Sydney wasn’t just a flash in the pan.
For Fremantle, with the derby next week and then a trip to face Port Adelaide, before hosting undefeated Geelong, banking the four points is vital entering a baptism of fire in the next month.
There’s plenty at stake for both teams in an ever-growing season of unpredictability. Injuries and suspension have already played their part after North’s Scott Thompson and Fremantle’s Hayden Ballantyne received one match bans. Daniel Wells will miss due to injury while Jack Ziebell will make his return. Nevertheless both squads are sure to have their depth tested.
Finding the balance
North Melbourne’s 2014 campaign has seen a switch in emphasis from all out chaotic attack to a more defensive focus. Round 1 proved there was plenty of work to do with numerous teething issues coming to the fore, specifically finding the right balance between defence and attack. With a lack of forward-line and midfield continuity the Bombers sat Cale Hooker loose in defence as North blazed away to their own detriment. That loose opponent in defence has provided issues for North in the opening five rounds.
Round 1 saw Hooker finish with 6 intercept marks and 10 damaging intercept possessions. It looked to continue in the first half of the Round 2 clash with the Bulldogs as Bob Murphy gathered 4 intercept possessions and three intercept marks in the first half before being forced to engage a direct opponent. Round 3 saw Port Adelaide play one-on-one defensively with Jackson Trengove registering just 2 intercept marks. Round 4 against Sydney offered more one-on-one footy in the Swans’ defensive pair Nick Smith and Dane Rampe registering only a couple of intercepts.
North's best performances so far have come when it has made opposition backmen accountable.
Against Collingwood in Round 5 both coaches elected to play loose men in defence. The Magpies sat a wall of players a kick off the contest. Their manic pressure allowed North zero time on the ball when navigating a path out of defence, forcing numerous panic kicks and ill-advised handballs.
Collingwood finished the game with 12 different players registering at least one intercept mark. Its 8 intercept marks in the opening term resulted in a first quarter season-high 34 points from turnovers and saw the Kangaroos leap to number one in the competition for turnovers by foot.
A lack of poise and spread when moving the footy in a high pressure environment has made it tough for North forwards to move to valuable space when in transition, while engaging loose opponents backwards of centre is a necessity based on what we’ve seen thus far.
Against a disciplined defensive outfit like Fremantle plenty of gut running and hard work will be required to find space and time on the ball in order to break Ross Lyon’s 'glue pot' zone. If the likes of Michael Johnson, Paul Duffield, Garrick Ibbotson and Luke McPharlin can roam unaccountable in the back half their smarts in the back half allow them to read the play and kick-start scoring chains at will.
The Dockers average 15.3 marks from opposition kicks in wins this season compared to just 7.5 in losses. Against Sydney last week they forced just 5 marks from opposition kicks, their lowest total since round six 2010. Under Ross Lyon Fremantle possesses a 2-7 record when producing 10 or fewer marks from opposition kicks. Those wins came against a second year Gold Coast side and a Port Adelaide outfit which finished 14th. Protecting the football is paramount.
North is capable of coming away from Perth with four points provided the work ethic and communication are in sync. They have the talent and game plan; we saw it come together against Sydney and Port Adelaide as recently as a fortnight ago.
North opponents (per game)
Result | Intercept marks | Intercept possessions | Points from turnovers |
Wins | 10.3 | 58.6 | 35 |
Losses | 19.5 | 67 | 59 |
As for the Dockers they’ve proved to be equally as susceptible on the counter so far this season and lead the AFL for turnovers in defensive midfield. In Round 5 against Sydney they were +6 in turnovers by foot and +20.6 per cent in mark, play-on percentage. If the Kangaroos can get their own balance right they’ll have opportunities to do damage themselves, already forcing opponents into 3.5 more turnovers by foot per game than last season. The Swans proved that if you strong-arm Fremantle into hurried decisions, maintain possession (+35 uncontested possession) and be ferocious at the contest (Sydney +36 tackles) you’ll be in a strong position to the four points.
*You can read more on Fremantle and the impact of turnovers in this week’s (link)scouting report(/link)
Contested ball
Winning first use is often aligned with success in AFL circles and Friday night won’t prove to be any different. If there’s one tweak Lyon has made to his squad in 2014 it’s a deeper focus on being more potent at generating scores from stoppages.
In 2013 Fremantle ranked 13th in the competition for points generated from clearances, while this year it’s risen to seventh. The offset has been a dip in its defensive intensity, slipping from the top three at restricting opponent’s scores from stoppages and turnovers to sixth in both areas.
The Kangaroos have chosen to move in the opposite direction and sacrificed scoring punch to limit their vulnerability defensively. North has dropped from ranking fourth for points from stoppages and turnovers in 2013 to 12th this season, but has seen its defensive output rise dramatically in both areas. It means Scott's team are harder to score against, as evidenced by holding their opponents to a league low in goal scoring efficiency.
Kangaroos' defensive output
Year | Scores from stoppages | Strike rate | Scores from turnovers | Strike rate | Goal scoring efficiency |
2013 | 5th | 85.5 | 11th | 83.7 | 25.6% |
2014 | 3rd | 71.2 | 7th | 65.6 | 19.4% |
In the past North's alignment with success and winning at the coal face has been pretty cut and dry. When it's been productive in this area, it wins games.
Kangaroos' contested differentials (per game)
Result | Contested possession | Clearances | Tackles | Points from stoppages |
Wins | +7 | +6.7 | +8.7 | +58 |
Losses | -33 | -9 | -3.5 | -47 |
North’s -33 contested possession differential in losses is currently the worst of any side.
Ben Cunnington has been a monster at stoppages this season and is the equal competition leader in clearances with Joel Selwood, while ranking fourth for contested possessions per game. The addition of Jack Ziebell to go with Levi Greenwood and Nick Dal Santo should only aid in setting the tone against the Dockers' midfield core of Aaron Sandilands, David Mundy, Ryan Crowley and Nathan Fyfe.
The first step to victory is reading Sandilands early and utilising any advantage Todd Goldstein can offer by taking the ascendency when it comes to winning first use.
Forward-line efficiency
With a move to becoming more potent offensively, Fremantle has seen its contested possessions (+6.5), clearances (+2.3) and inside 50's (+5.6) all increase this year; the reward hasn’t translated to the scoreboard though. The Dockers have produced the sixth-most kicks inside 50 of any side this season, yet rank below league average in all areas related to putting points on the board.
Not only is Fremantle failing to yield maximum return from the entries, it’s failing to lock the ball inside its attacking 50. With Michael Walters and Hayden Ballantyne absent this Friday night, North should be able to clean up any loose ball and navigate out of defence more easily.
Kicks inside 50 | Retain % | Mark % | Stoppage % | Scoring efficiency | Goal scoring efficiency |
Fremantle | 41.7% | 17.4% | 11.3% | 34.3% | 19.1% |
League average | 43.1% | 19.9% | 14.1% | 36.8% | 19.6% |
Both sides are among the competition's more stout units in restricting scoring punch from kicks inside 50. North leads the competition in forcing a stoppage from entries by foot, holds opponents to the second-lowest scoring efficiency and lowest goal-scoring efficiency.
The Kangaroos have also forced opponents into the second-most forward 50 entries from beyond 70 metres, allowing them to funnel predictable football to a contest. The result is often a dead ball.
The alternative is for opponents to utilise a short kick inside 50 which North repels at a league-best rate, or to take shots at goal from distance. This has proven ineffective with its opposition converting scoring chances beyond 30 metres at just 47 per cent, the second-worst rate in the competition.
Everything points to a gruelling low scoring affair.
Defensive Rankings;
Opponent kicks inside 50 | Retain % | Mark % | Stoppage % | Scoring efficiency | Goal scoring efficiency |
Fremantle | 41.8% | 16.9% | 13.9% | 38.8% | 19.4% |
Kangaroos | 41.4% | 18.3% | 18.7% | 31.9% | 15.5% |
League average | 43.1% | 19.9% | 14.1% | 36.8% | 19.6% |
In three victories this season North has averaged 90.3 points per game with the majority of its scoring punch sourced from general play. We’re yet to see the three key-position forwards all fire at once with Aaron Black’s performance against Sydney the standout highlight.
The addition of Majak Daw could add the second dimension of athletic versatility the Kangaroos have missed in attack. They are ranked 15th for goals from marks and 17th for goals from set shots.
It’s obvious that both forward-lines have been minus their preferred personnel and the production has suffered as a result. Whichever unit clicks on the night will likely take home the points.
Who will win and why?
There’s been plenty of buzz around both teams in the opening five rounds of the season with the majority of it pointing to the inconsistencies in performance. There has been huge differences between each side's best and worst output, with little to no middle ground apparent. Forecasting which outfit will show the more desperate intent and come out firing is anyone’s guess, especially given the season of upsets we’ve had to date.
Scott Thompson’s suspension no doubt leaves a significant hole in the Kangaroos' back six. The number 16 is joint-leader for ground-ball gets in defensive 50, ranks sixth for intercept marks, first for intercept possessions and has conceded just eight goals to his direct opponent this season. However with the Dockers' depleted forward 50 prospects, the overall impact of his absence can be minimised.
There’s no doubting who Fremantle will look to as its match winner. Matthew Pavlich ranks fourth in the competition for marks on the tead, fifth for goals and is the AFL’s most targeted player inside 50 with 10.2 per game. Identifying the most suitable match-up early and limiting the Dockers' captain's influence is critical.
Another Docker to focus on is Stephen Hill. He leads the league for inside 50’s, kicks inside 50 retained and sits top 10 for metres gained. Fellow runner Danyle Pearce ranks third for inside 50’s and kicks inside 50 retained, and ninth for metres gained. Quashing the outside run from both will be of equal importance.
A fast start for North is a must and it will need to improve on its 1-4 record in second quarters which has seen it outscored by 44 points in first halves across the opening five rounds.
The two sides have a combined 9-1 record in final quarters this year so if things are close at the final change expect fireworks and neither team to roll over.
What we have is two top six defences taking the field against two forward lines still ironing out their kinks. It has all the makings of a tight bruising affair which unlike years past, actually suits North Melbourne. The Kangaroos rank second for run-down tackles and that kind of intensity needs to be evident from the first bounce.
North snapped the horrors of a recent 1-10 record at the SCG this season and is every chance to do the same on Friday night in prime-time against an undermanned Fremantle side.
If there’s ever a perfect time to tackle the Dockers, it’s now.
Tip: North Melbourne by 6 points
