In the last five games, the Magpies have conceded on average less than 70 points a game on their way to four wins. Their average winning margin has been close to nine goals and in each win they have scored more than 100 points.
However it’s the single loss in this time period that may be of interest to the Kangaroos. Collingwood came up against Hawthorn in Round 21 and lost by 35 points at the MCG as their opponent kicked 18.11.119.
Two of the three highest scores the Magpies have conceded in 2013 were against Hawthorn. And when you take a look at the scoring sources, the first thing to jump out is how open the games were.
Hawthorn hardly turned in a superb defensive performance in either game; Collingwood averaged almost 90 points across the meetings. But the Hawks were able to score efficiently and often from stoppages and turnovers.
| Team v Collingwood | Points per 100 clearances | Points per 100 turnovers |
| Hawthorn | 140 | 93.7 |
| AFL average | 97.5 | 66.1 |
| Differential | +42.5 | +27.6 |
These numbers are extremely relevant to North Melbourne considering its own success in these statistical areas.
Over the course of 2013, it ranks third in points per 100 clearances and first in points per 100 turnovers.
| Team | Points per 100 clearances | Points per 100 turnovers |
| North Melbourne | 99.6 | 99.2 |
| AFL rank | 3rd | 1st |
While both North and Collingwood have changed their teams and setup since Round 1, it’s worth going back and looking at the numbers from clearances and turnovers from that game.
The Roos were able to win one of those categories – but the Pies were so far on top in scores from turnovers it ended up being the deciding factor in the game.
| Round 1 | Points from clearances | Points from turnovers |
| North Melbourne | 45 | 36 |
| Collingwood | 8 | 89 |
| Differential | +37 | -53 |
Overall North ended up -16 in the two stats combined. The final margin? 16 points.
Nick Maxwell and Tyson Goldsack had 12 intercept possessions between them on the day, while Harry O’Brien took three intercept marks.
The trio will again be patrolling North’s defensive 50 on Sunday and in addition there will be the dangerous Heath Shaw, a late withdrawal in Round 1.
But going back to the Hawthorn example once more, it successfully neutralised Shaw, holding him to just 22 possessions in two games. The reason is down to the role of a defensive forward.
Sam Wright is the first player who springs to mind when such a job is mentioned. He completely shut Grant Birchall out of the game last week, restricting the classy left-footer to a largely ineffective 16 disposals while collecting 17 himself.
Even though Shaw has missed three games this season, the fact he leads Collingwood’s rebound 50 count by such a margin illustrates his importance.
| Player | Rebound 50's for Collingwood, 2013 |
| Heath Shaw | 80 |
| Harry O'Brien | 54 |
| Dane Swan | 44 |
Considering how Collingwood was able to dominate on the rebound after turnovers in Round 1, it may just be the most important area of the game at the MCG on Sunday.
