8. North Melbourne
40 points (10 wins, seven losses), 110.59 per cent
The run home:
Rd 19: Western Bulldogs at Etihad Stadium
Rd 20: Essendon at Etihad Stadium
Rd 21: Collingwood at Etihad Stadium
Rd 22: Fremantle at Etihad Stadium
Rd 23: Greater Western Sydney at Skoda Stadium
The Roos tossed aside the struggling Demons like finals-bound sides should do. Their three-pronged attack is dangerous and they'll need to be on their game against Essendon and Collingwood. Fremantle trail North only by percentage, and their round 22 clash shapes as a virtual elimination final. A final-round appointment with the Giants could yet prove pivotal, with percentage in play.
1. Sydney Swans
56 points (14 wins, three losses), 151.31 per cent
The run home:
Rd 19: Carlton at Etihad Stadium
Rd 20: Collingwood at ANZ Stadium
Rd 21: Western Bulldogs at Etihad Stadium
Rd 22: Hawthorn at the SCG
Rd 23: Geelong at Simonds Stadium
Thanks to Adelaide's slip up in Geelong, the Swans now sit a game clear on top of the ladder. However, Saturday night's percentage-boosting win against the Suns came at a cost. Sam Reid's knee injury is expected to sideline him for at least the first two matches of a difficult run home. Games against Carlton, Collingwood, Hawthorn and Geelong mean a top-four spot remains far from certain.
» Predict how the 2012 season will play out using the official AFL ladder predictor
2. Hawthorn
52 points (13 wins, four losses) 160.09 per cent
The run home:
Rd 19: Geelong at the MCG
Rd 20: Port Adelaide at Aurora Stadium
Rd 21: Gold Coast at the MCG
Rd 22: Sydney Swans at the SCG
Rd 23: West Coast at the MCG
Friday night's demolition of a battle-weary Essendon was coupled with the bonus return of captain Luke Hodge, who slotted back nicely with five goals. Given the Hawks stand to regain star forward Lance Franklin, few would bet against them to leapfrog the Swans and win the minor premiership. However, two teams in particular will have plenty to say about that. The Swans, at the SCG in round 22, will be one. The other will be Geelong. The Cats are resurgent, and that - combined with their undefeated record against the Hawks since the 2008 grand final, makes for a mouthwatering clash next Friday.
3. Adelaide
52 points (13 wins, four losses) 129.42 per cent
The run home:
Rd 19: Essendon at AAMI Stadium
Rd 20: Fremantle at AAMI Stadium
Rd 21: Brisbane Lions at the Gabba
Rd 22: Melbourne at the MCG
Rd 23: Gold Coast at AAMI Stadium
A home qualifying final remains within reach despite Saturday's loss against the Cats. Three matches at home and games against some lowly teams puts Adelaide in the box seat to cement a top-two berth. Next week's task against Essendon could be made tougher if the match review panel take an interest in prime midfielder Scott Thompson for his hit on Steve Johnson. Kurt Tippett's availability will also be crucial, as he battles to overcome a series of concussions.
4. Collingwood
52 points (13 wins, four losses) 123.82 per cent
The run home:
Rd 19: St Kilda at the MCG
Rd 20: Sydney Swans at ANZ Stadium
Rd 21: North Melbourne at Etihad Stadium
Rd 22: West Coast at Patersons Stadium
Rd 23: Essendon at the MCG
The Pies have a four-point buffer over the Eagles and may need it to secure a double chance. Travis Cloke's return to form against the Giants will be welcome news ahead of a tricky month that includes interstate appointments with two of Collingwood's top-four rivals.
5. West Coast
48 points (12 wins, five losses) 130.49 per cent
The run home:
Rd 19: Fremantle at Patersons Stadium
Rd 20: Geelong at Patersons Stadium
Rd 21: Port Adelaide at AAMI Stadium
Rd 22: Collingwood at Patersons Stadium
Rd 23: Hawthorn at the MCG
Still in the hunt for a top-four berth after a 98-point victory against the Brisbane Lions, but the Eagles face a testing run home. The western derby is never an easy task, while the Cats at home should also present a tough mission. Triumph against Collingwood and Hawthorn in the final two rounds and Eagle fans can begin rekindling dreams of another grand final.
6. Geelong
44 points (11 wins, six losses), 115.04 per cent
The run home:
Rd 19: Hawthorn at the MCG
Rd 20: West Coast at Patersons Stadium
Rd 21: St Kilda at Etihad Stadium
Rd 22: Western Bulldogs at Etihad Stadium
Rd 23: Sydney Swans at Simonds Stadium
The Cats have entrenched themselves in the top eight after knocking off Essendon and now Adelaide in consecutive weeks. Extending that winning streak looks unlikely, given the next two fixtures, although Geelong have had the wood over Hawthorn in recent times. The loss of Joel Corey to a hamstring injury will hurt, while Steve Johnson will be tested midweek after Saturday's KO at the opening bounce. While the top four looks out of reach, the reigning premiers are well positioned to earn a home elimination final.
7. Essendon
44 points (11 wins, six losses) 113.25 per cent
The run home:
Rd 19: Adelaide at AAMI Stadium
Rd 20: North Melbourne at Etihad Stadium
Rd 21: Carlton at the MCG
Rd 22: Richmond at the MCG
Rd 23: Collingwood at the MCG
The Bombers are stuttering and are now in real danger of missing the eight. They were humiliated by the Hawks on Friday night, and now it's season on the line against the Crows in Adelaide. Michael Hurley and Tayte Pears should return, but Brent Stanton could add to the Bombers' injury woes. Their final month is chock full of difficult assignments - headlined by the round 20 game against North Melbourne.
----------------------------------------
9. Fremantle
40 points (10 wins, seven losses) 106.90 per cent
The run home:
Rd 19: West Coast at Patersons Stadium
Rd 20: Adelaide at AAMI Stadium
Rd 21: Richmond at Patersons Stadium
Rd 22: North Melbourne at Etihad Stadium
Rd 23: Melbourne at Patersons Stadium
Despite registering a comfortable 27-point win against Port Adelaide, Fremantle blew a golden opportunity to boost its percentage against the Power. Nat Fyfe's return was a huge plus, and with North Melborune unlikely to remain unbeaten, Freo's destiny remains in its own hands. Win the enormous round 22 clash against the Roos and eighth spot could be there for the taking.
10. St Kilda
36 points (nine wins, eight losses), 121.88 per cent
The run home:
Rd 19: Collingwood at the MCG
Rd 20: Melbourne at the MCG
Rd 21: Geelong at Etihad Stadium
Rd 22: Greater Western Sydney at Etihad Stadium
Rd 23: Carlton at Etihad Stadium
Don't rule the Saints out, but everything will need to go right from here. Sunday's win over the inexperienced Bulldogs was a key percentage boost. A date with Collingwood is next up, followed by a likely win against the Demons. The Saints' season could be decided against Geelong in round 21 and then Carlton in round 23.
11. Carlton
36 points (nine wins, eight losses) 104.76 per cent
The run home:
Rd 19: Sydney Swans at Etihad Stadium
Rd 20: Brisbane Lions at Etihad Stadium
Rd 21: Essendon at the MCG
Rd 22: Gold Coast at Metricon Stadium
Rd 23: St Kilda at Etihad Stadium
Brock McLean's match-winning goal was just the tonic Brett Ratten's understrength side needed. Beating the top-of-the table Swans at Etihad next week is critical. Win that, and it's just conceivable that Carlton could carry form into August good enough to make the finals.
12. Richmond
28 points (seven wins, 10 losses) 105.58 per cent
The run home:
Rd 19: Brisbane Lions at the Gabba
Rd 20: Western Bulldogs at the MCG
Rd 21: Fremantle at Patersons Stadium
Rd 22: Essendon at the MCG
Rd 23: Port Adelaide at the MCG
The Tigers now need to win all their remaining games and hope for results elsewhere to fall their way. For fans it's most likely wishful thinking, but Richmond is at least due a change of luck. Saturday night's heart-breaking loss to the Blues topped off a horror three-week stretch for the Tigers, with three losses by an aggregate of 10 points.
13. Brisbane Lions
28 points (seven wins, 10 losses), 88.06 per cent
The run home:
Rd 19: Richmond at the Gabba
Rd 20: Carlton at Etihad Stadium
Rd 21: Adelaide at the Gabba
Rd 22: Port Adelaide at AAMI Stadium
Rd 23: Western Bulldogs at the Gabba
No one in Brisbane is seriously contemplating finals, although mathematically the Lions remain a chance to snatch eighth spot. A dreadful percentage compounded by Sunday's hammering by the Eagles is the least of their worries. A more realistic ambition for the final month of the home and away season is to derail the plans of other finals aspirants, starting with Richmond and Carlton.
» Click here to view the interactive AFL ladder, which you can filter by recent form, interstate record, average margins and more.
Ben Guthrie is a reporter for AFL.com.au. Follow him on Twitter: @AFL_BenGuthrie
