WHERE AND WHEN: Etihad Stadium, Sunday August 12, 4.40pm
LAST TIME: North Melbourne 15.12 (102) defeated by Essendon 14.20 (104) round 1, 2012 at Etihad Stadium
At the start of the year many believed Essendon and North Melbourne would be fighting it out for a spot in the finals and that's just the way the season has played out. This is a massive game for both clubs. The winner will go very close to assuring a position in the top eight, while the loser's September hopes will be dimmed. North has the form going into the contest, winning seven of its last eight games, while the Bombers have lost four of their last five games and continue to suffer from soft-tissue injuries.
THE FOUR POINTS
ESSENDON
1. The machinations of Essendon's forward line will be under the microscope this week with key target Stewart Crameri set to return from hamstring tightness. It will mean Bombers coach James Hird has finally got Crameri, Scott Gumbleton and Michael Hurley at his disposal in the same team. This could stretch North Melbourne's backline, which is based around key talls Nathan Grima and Scott Thompson.
2. Essendon did almost everything right against Adelaide last week except take home the four points. The Bombers had more contested possessions, won the clearances, and had more inside-50 entries, but were overrun by a Crows side intent on holding its top-two position on the ladder. The Bombers missed a few opportunities early in the final quarter that could have guaranteed a win, but they will take great heart from the performance.
3. The Bombers haven't enjoyed a strong recent record, winning only three of 11 matches against the Kangaroos since 2002. But in their classic round one meeting this year, the Bombers survived after Kangaroos ruckman Hamish McIntosh missed a post-siren shot at goal to clinch the win. If Essendon gets up again on Sunday, it will be the first time since 2000-01 that the Bombers have won consecutive games against the Kangaroos.
4. Don't be surprised if Courtenay Dempsey makes a late push towards a top-three placing in Essendon's best and fairest award. The running defender is in stunning form and played perhaps the best game of his 70-game career at the club against the Crows. He was everywhere, mopping up in defence, driving the Bombers forward, and even pushing into attack to kick an important long goal. He'll need to be on his game against the Roos, who have impressed recently.
NORTH MELBOURNE
1. North will want to avoid a repeat of the sluggish start it made against the Western Bulldogs last Saturday. The Roos led the Bulldogs by four points at half-time but trailed the inside 50 count 18-36 at that stage. After the game, North coach Brad Scott said his team had not adapted to the Bulldogs' tactics quickly enough and had to become better at responding to opposition strategies designed to curb its fast ball movement.
2. North was decisively beaten in clearances (26-40) and contested possessions (130-152) when it met the Bombers in round one this year. The Roos were also beaten in these areas by the Bulldogs last Saturday, 37-43 and 139-146 respectively. With Jack Ziebell still suspended, North will rely heavily on skipper Andrew Swallow, Daniel Wells, Ben Cunnington and, if fit, Leigh Adams to give it a lift around the stoppages against Essendon.
3. North has become more potent in attack since bringing Drew Petrie, Lachlan Hansen, both 197cm, and Robbie Tarrant, 196cm, together in round 13. In the seven games since, North has averaged 119.3 points a game, up from 104.5 in its first 11 games. Petrie has almost doubled his output with Hansen and Tarrant by his side, kicking 29 goals at an average of better than four in North's past seven games, up from 23 in its first 11.
4. This year is the first since 2001 that North and Essendon have met twice in a season. That year the Bombers won both clashes, in round one by 85 points and in round 16 by 12 points after being 69 points down at the 10-minute mark of the second quarter - a record AFL comeback.
AFL.com.au prediction: North Melbourne by two points
The views in this story are those of the author and not necessarily those of the clubs or the AFL
