1. Fremantle
64 points (16 wins, three losses) 124.7 per cent
The Dockers still have some work to do to finish in the top two. Unless they win two of their last three games, the Eagles and the Hawks could overtake them, if those clubs win their last three games. With tricky outings against the Roos and Power, the dreaded scenario of having to play Hawthorn at the MCG in the opening week of the finals is very much in play for Fremantle. So expect Ross Lyon to send a strong team over to Etihad next Sunday for a huge clash with the pacy Kangaroos to get the win and ease some anxiety. That means the player management might have to wait another week.
The run home:
Rd 21: North Melbourne at Etihad Stadium
Rd 22: Melbourne at Domain Stadium
Rd 23: Port Adelaide at Adelaide Oval
2. West Coast
58 points (14 wins, four losses, one draw) 148.3 per cent
A fine win over Fremantle, but the huge challenges keep on coming for West Coast. The Western Bulldogs travel to Perth next Sunday for the first time this season in a blockbuster twilight clash and their run and gun style should suit them on the pacy Domain Stadium. Then comes the in-form Crows at Adelaide Oval. The Eagles can't afford to slip up if they want a home qualifying final, because Hawthorn remains just two points adrift and is likely to run the table from here.
The run home:
Rd 21: Western Bulldogs at Domain Stadium
Rd 22: Adelaide at Adelaide Oval
Rd 23: St Kilda at Domain Stadium
3. Hawthorn
56 points (14 wins, five losses) 160.3 per cent
Just keep winning. That's the mantra for the Hawks from here on in. They finish the season with three winnable home games, albeit only one at the MCG. For reasons best known to the AFL, they 'host' Port Adelaide at Etihad Stadium on Friday night. They would have loved a Freo win on Sunday to overtake the Eagles and move into second place, but by winning themselves, they keep the pressure on the Eagles to do the same. Alastair Clarkson will be tempted to rest some of his veterans over the final fortnight of the season, particularly in case of the need to travel to Perth to open the finals.
The run home:
Rd 21: Port Adelaide at Etihad Stadium
Rd 22: Brisbane Lions at Aurora Stadium
Rd 23: Carlton at the MCG 4. Sydney Swans
4. Western Bulldogs
52 points (13 wins, six losses) 123.2 per cent
Their percentage jumped another six per cent by virtue of thrashing the Demons and the Bulldogs now hold a 10 per cent edge over the fifth-placed Swans. But they have a tougher run home than the Swans, so probably need to win out to hold on to the double chance. They'll knock over the Brisbane Lions easily in the final round, but West Coast in Perth and North at Etihad will be tough. A fifth-place finish and an elimination final at Etihad might be their fate in week one of the finals. But who would want to play them there?
The run home:
Rd 21: West Coast at Domain Stadium
Rd 22: North Melbourne at Etihad Stadium
Rd 23: Brisbane Lions at the Gabba
5. Sydney Swans
52 points (13 wins, six losses) 112.5 per cent
Showed some spirit and fight to surge late and beat Collingwood on Friday night, when the odds looked small rather than great. The Giants will throw everything at the Swans in what should be a fiery derby at Spotless Stadium on Saturday evening, but Lance Franklin's return at the expense of the injured Luke Parker helps keep the scales in the Swans' favour.
Win that and the Swans should finish top four and get the double chance, as their draw is easier than the Bulldogs'.
The run home:
Rd 21: GWS at Spotless Stadium
Rd 22: St Kilda at Etihad Stadium
Rd 23: Gold Coast at the SCG
6. Richmond
48 points (12 wins, seven losses) 114.5 per cent
The Tigers did as was required against Gold Coast, racking up an 83-point win that added six points to their percentage. They need to win two more to absolutely secure their third straight finals appearance but one will likely be enough and with Essendon still on their schedule, that's almost a given. They would need an unlikely stumble from the Swans to sneak into the top four, so a more realistic goal would be to secure an MCG elimination final in the opening weekend. Two wins would help; three would make it a certainty.
The run home:
Rd 21:Collingwood at the MCG
Rd 22: Essendon at the MCG
Rd 23: North Melbourne at Etihad Stadium
7. North Melbourne
48 points (12 wins, seven losses) 111.8 per cent
The Kangaroos have taken care of business for the last six weeks, but their finals pretty much start now. Like the Tigers, one more win makes finals a strong probability but they would only start an even-money bet at this stage in each of their last three encounters. North would love a big scalp and will be itching to have a crack at Fremantle at Etihad next Sunday.
The run home:
Rd 21: Fremantle at Etihad Stadium
Rd 22: Western Bulldogs at Etihad Stadium
Rd 23: Richmond at Etihad Stadium
8. Adelaide
46 points (11 wins, seven losses, one no result) 111.4 per cent
Their 112-point flogging of Essendon added seven points to their percentage and for now the Crows sit comfortably in the eight, a game and 10 per cent clear of Geelong, who they play in the final game of the season. But they can nearly wrap up a finals berth by beating West Coast at Adelaide Oval the week before in what will be the biggest game played by the Crows at their new home since moving there last year. Scott Camporeale has the team fit and in-form and the right time of the year.
The run home:
Rd 21: Brisbane Lions at Adelaide Oval
Rd 22: West Coast at Adelaide Oval
Rd 23: Geelong at Simonds Stadium
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9. Geelong
42 points (10 wins, eight losses, one no result) 101.9 per cent
Results on the weekend conspired against Geelong. Beating the Hawks was always unlikely, but the Crows' whopping win over Essendon and their resultant percentage boost did the Cats no favours. They'll be hoping that the Eagles knock over the Crows in round 22, because that makes the season finale against Adelaide – provided they win their next two – a 'win and get in' clash. I'm not sure Simonds Stadium will be large enough to cope.
The run home:
Rd 21: St Kilda at Etihad Stadium
Rd 22: Collingwood at the MCG
Rd 23: Adelaide at Simonds Stadium
10. Greater Western Sydney
40 points (10 wins, nine losses) 100.9 per cent
The Giants could theoretically sneak into the eight with a 12-10 record, which means they could lose to the Swans in the Sydney derby on Saturday without drawing the curtains on 2015. However that scenario would require upsets involving those above them on the ladder - less likely than Rhys Palmer spurning this open goal.
While finals may realistically be beyond their grasp, they're heading for a 12-10 season, which is an excellent return for the year.
The run home:
Rd 21: Sydney Swans at Spotless Stadium
Rd 22: Carlton at Spotless Stadium
Rd 23: Melbourne at Etihad Stadium
11. Collingwood
36 points (nine wins, 10 losses) 110.4 per cent
The Pies would need to win out and rely on a host of strange results – such as the Brisbane Lions beating Adelaide away, and St Kilda rolling Geelong – to fluke their way in. Richmond should put the Magpies out of their misery once and for all next Saturday at the MCG.
The run home:
Rd 21: Richmond at the MCG
Rd 22: Geelong at the MCG
Rd 23: Essendon at the MCG
12. Port Adelaide
36 points (nine wins, 10 losses) 100.0 per cent
See Collingwood above. And it is even harder for the Power with Hawthorn and Fremantle still on their schedule. Crunch the numbers and they can still finish as high as seventh. But let's be honest, they're cooked.
The run home:
Rd 21: Hawthorn at Etihad Stadium
Rd 22: Gold Coast at Metricon Stadium
Rd 23: Fremantle at Adelaide Oval
