Thanks to all those who responded, however there can be only one.
Scott Barby was our lucky winner and below is his views on the all-important clash.
Click here to follow Scott on Twitter
Vital Information
Round 16 will see North Melbourne play host to Carlton on the home and away season’s biggest stage; Friday night football. With both teams equal on seven wins, the clash serves as a virtual eight-point game given the current logjam for the remaining finals spots.
An injury riddled season has seen Carlton freefall from premiership favorites to the cusp of the top 8. The Blues’ 23-point win over a red-hot Collingwood last Friday night couldn’t have come at a better time. With its season essentially on the line, Carlton was able to recapture its early season form and reinvigorate a club that had a coach and playing group under extreme pressure.
For North Melbourne, Friday night serves as an opportunity to overcome the anguish of another late fadeout; this time in a 2-point loss to West Coast at Tasmania’s Blundstone Arena. Seemingly in control by 35-points, the Kangaroos failed to hold on for what would have been their fourth consecutive win and provided the club with a handy buffer over the remaining top eight challengers.
The venue
Already with wins at Etihad Stadium over classy finals calibre sides in Geelong, St. Kilda and Adelaide, North Melbourne should take a wealth of confidence into Friday night’s clash.
In season 2012, the Kangaroos have registered a 5-2 win/loss record at Etihad compared to Carlton’s 1-3. The venue advantage will be firmly in the Kangaroos’ favour.
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| Drew Petrie celebrating during one of North's five wins at Etihad this season |
By the numbers
From a statistical standpoint, North Melbourne’s preference for winning more uncontested football stands out.
| Team | Contested Possession | Uncontested Possession | Disposals | Disposal Efficiency | Kicks | Handballs | |||||||
| North Melbourne | 145 (7th) | 227 (4th) | 374 (4th) | 73% (5th) | 205 (11th) | 168 (2nd) | |||||||
| Carlton | 145 (6th) | 210 (12th) | 358 (9th) | 72% (8th) | 208 (9th) | 150 (11th) |
| Team | Clangers | Hitouts | Clearances | Inside 50's | Tackles | Marks Inside 50 | |||||||
| North Melbourne | 47 (7th) | 39 (8th) | 39 (7th) | 58 (3rd) | 63 (15th) | 13 (1st) | |||||||
| Carlton | 45 (11th) | 46 (3rd) | 40 (3rd) | 52 (11th) | 71 (3rd) | 12 (8th) |
Both sides look to utilize their key forwards as often as possible with North the more dangerous side, as evidenced by their superior ability to get the ball inside 50 more often. Outside of these minor disparities, the sides look to be incredibly equal with no clear area of dominance.
Wins and Losses
In order to gain a more accurate indication of the sides pros and cons, let’s break down how each performs in wins and losses.
North Melbourne
The Kangaroos currently possess a win/loss record of 7-7, so we have a pretty solid sample size to identify any reoccurring trends. As we’re all aware, North are handball darlings and it’s priority number one. In wins this year, the Kangaroos have had 362 more handballs than their opposition, that’s more than 50 more handballs in each win, compared to only 50 more handballs than the opposition in losses (7.14 more per game). I may be going out on a limb here, but that’s a lot of handballs, enough for second most in the league behind only Richmond.
The handball is the preferred means of ball transport for the Roos and a direct result of that is their ability to obliterate the opposition when it comes to overall disposal counts. In wins this year, North Melbourne has had 490 more disposals than the opposition compared to 176 fewer in losses. That’s a whopping disparity. In order to win, the Kangaroos need the football, and plenty of it. The preferred means via which to maintain the football is through uncontested disposal as opposed to winning the tough contested ball. The Kangaroos are only +98 in contested possession in wins this year, and -109 in losses.
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| The Kangaroos are only +98 in contested possession in wins this year, and -109 in losses. |
Against St. Kilda, North Melbourne even managed to lose the contested possession count, yet belt the Saints on the scoreboard. In regards to uncontested possession, North has experienced 412 (58.85 per game) more uncontested disposals than the opposition in wins and 77 (11 per game) fewer in losses. There have been three separate occasions where the Roos won the uncontested possession count and still lost the game, although the disparities were incredibly low. In the follow up meeting against the Gold Coast in Round 12, North Melbourne had 33 fewer handballs than the Suns but still managed to take the four-points, albeit in one of the ugliest wins in the club’s history. Make no mistake about it, the key for North is winning a high amount of football, disposing of it accurately via hand in order to break the lines and finding key forward targets inside 50.
For Carlton to nullify the Kangaroos’ preferred style of play, it needs to concentrate not necessarily on eclipsing the Kangaroos, but matching them in overall disposal numbers with a focus being via foot. North Melbourne struggle against teams who produce high disposal numbers, especially those that are more kicking dependent. 6 of the Kangaroos 7 losses this year have come against sides who rank inside the top 10 for total number of disposals: Hawthorn (2nd), Western Bulldogs (3rd), Essendon (5th), West Coast twice (6th) and Sydney (7th).
Only Port Adelaide (17th) defeated North whilst ranking outside the upper echeleon of total disposals.
To further underline North’s woes against high diposal sides, let’s take a look at who they’ve defeated this year and their associated total disposal ranking: GWS (16th), Gold Coast twice (15th), Adelaide (14th), Brisbane (13th), St. Kilda (12th) and Geelong (10th). Only Geelong and St. Kilda are borderline average in this area.
Given Carlton ranks 11th overall in this specific statistic, I see this as a reasonable advantage in the Kangaroos’ favor. Feel free to join me in a collective fist pump.
North Melbourne Win/Loss Disparity (Average per game)
| Category | Wins | Losses | ||||||||
| Disposals | +70 | -25.14 | ||||||||
| Contested Possession | +14 | -15.57 | ||||||||
| Uncontested Possession | +58.85 | -11 | ||||||||
| Marks | +8.85 | -12.85 | ||||||||
| Marks Inside 50 | +5.57 | -3.85 | ||||||||
| Kicks | +18.28 | -27.14 | ||||||||
| Handballs | +51.71 | +7.14 | ||||||||
| Clearances | +9.85 | -6.14 | ||||||||
| Inside 50's | +17 | -8.42 | ||||||||
| Disposal Efficiency | +3.42% | -2.42 | ||||||||
| Kicking Efficiency | - | -4% | ||||||||
| Effective Kicks | +9.28 | -19 |
Carlton
Like the Roos, Carlton is travelling along at an equally nerve wracking 7-7 win/loss record and is heavily dependent upon dominating disposal counts in order to win (Carlton is undefeated when it has more disposals than its opposition). In victories this year, Carlton has had 400 more disposals than its opposition (57.14 per game) and 194 fewer in losses (27.71 per game). When you factor in the higher disposal frequency associated with the continuous handball of North’s game-style, the teams become so similar statistically that it’s creepy.
One area where the sides differ is Carlton’s higher reliance upon kicking. In wins this year, Carlton has had 256 more kicks (36.57 more per game) than its opposition, exactly double that of North Melbourne’s 128 (18.28 more per game) in its victories.
Finally, a point of difference!
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| Jeff Garlett is one of many Carlton player who favours kicking over handballing |
The disparity between Carlton’s marking numbers underline this point further, with the Blues preferring to take the safest route possible via foot (uncontested marks). In wins this year Carlton has experienced 158 more uncontested marks than its opposition (22.57 more per game) and 128 fewer in losses (18.28 less per game). The success rate of advancing the football via this avenue is heavily dependant upon the ability to find targets accurately. When the Blues are potent via foot, they cut teams to pieces.
In wins this year, Carlton has had a whopping 230 more effective kicks than its opposition (32.85 more per game) and a mammoth 214 fewer in losses (30.57 less per game). This coincides with the Blues’ kicking efficiency rate of +4.14% higher than its opposition in wins, compared to 5.42% worse in losses. It’s clearly evident that for Carlton to take the four points on Friday night, it will need to win the majority of ball and control the flow and pace of the game with superior foot skills.
Let’s all hope this doesn’t happen.
North ultimately struggles against teams that dominate a high percentage of disposal, Carlton on the other hand find teams that produce elite kicking numbers to be a thorn in its side. The Blues have lost to 6 of the top 7 kicking sides: Essendon (1st), Hawthorn (2nd), Adelaide (4th), St. Kilda (5th), West Coast (6th) and Geelong (7th). The only team Carlton has defeated inside the top 7 is Collingwood (twice) which ranks 3rd overall. Out of those 8 games against the league’s top 7 kicking sides, only the Magpies were held below 69% kicking efficiency when playing Carlton (65% in Round 3 and 64% in Round 15).
In its 7 wins this year, Carlton had more kicks and effective kicks on the night than its opposition. In its 7 losses, Carlton had fewer kicks on the night than its opposition and in 6 of those 7 losses, fewer effective kicks. I don’t want to be captain obvious here but judging by that, if you operate heavily via foot and hit your targets, you beat Carlton. This is where any supporters over the age of 50 who have a tendency to constantly scream “Just kick the bloody thing!”, come in handy because kicking the bloody thing is effective against Carlton, as long as you can maintain possession of course.
As for how the above trend impacts North Melbourne, well the Kangaroos rank 14th in the competition for kicks and 12th overall in opponent kicks per game differential…Crap.
Carlton Win/Loss Disparity (Average per game)
| Category | Wins | Losses | ||||||||
| Disposals | +57.14 | -27.71 | ||||||||
| Contested Possessions | +18.14 | -7 | ||||||||
| Uncontested Possessions | +38.14 | -19.71 | ||||||||
| Marks | +21.85 | -22 | ||||||||
| Marks Inside 50 | +5.42 | -1.42 | ||||||||
| Kicks | +36.57 | -29.42 | ||||||||
| Handballs | +20.57 | +1.71 | ||||||||
| Uncontested Marks | +22.57 | -18.28 | ||||||||
| Clearances | +7.42 | -4.57 | ||||||||
| Inside 50's | +15.57 | -5.14 | ||||||||
| Disposal Efficiency | +2.28% | -2% | ||||||||
| Kicking Efficiency | +4.14% | -5.42% | ||||||||
| Effective Kicks | +32.85 | -30.57 |
Areas of Strength
Now that we’re aware of each sides tendencies, let’s look at where both standout in comparison to the rest of the league to see if there’s any advantages.
| North Melbourne | Carlton | |
| 3rd in handballs per game | 4th in least opponent handballs per game | |
| 4th in points per game | 8th in points per game against | |
| 4th in least opponent disposals per game | 5th in least opponent disposals per game | |
| 2nd in least opponent tackles per game | 4th in tackles per game | |
| 2nd in team to opponent handballs per game differential | 5th in team to opponent handballs per game differential | |
| 4th in team to opponent disposals per game differential | 5th in team to opponent hitouts per game differential |
As you can see, there really isn’t a standout advantage for either side. Where one excels, the other generally counters with an equally impressive output. The one telling statistic is Carlton ranking 4th in least opponent handballs per game. It will be interesting to see how effectively it can combat the Kangaroos’ bread and butter style.
Scoring Sources
North Melbourne possess the scoring advantage ranking 4th overall in points per game (106 points per game) compared to Carlton which is 11th (90-points per game). The positive for the Blues is that when it comes to the other end of the ground, their defense is more concrete. Carlton ranks 7th overall for points against (83 points per game) compared to North Melbourne’s back 6 ranking 15th overall (100-points per game).
How exactly does each team source the majority of their points? The following break-down indicates the scoring origins for each side and groups them by wins and losses to see what changes occur.
| North Melbourne | Wins | Losses | ||||||||
| Stoppages | +9.71 | -14.71 | ||||||||
| Turnovers | +30.14 | -38.71 | ||||||||
| Kick Ins | -1.71 | +1.57 |
| Carlton | Wins | Losses | ||||||||
| Stoppages | +16.42 | -8.85 | ||||||||
| Turnovers | +30.42 | -27.28 | ||||||||
| Kick Ins | +3.85 | +0.28 |
The numbers show the Kangaroos are much more reliant upon opposition turnovers, thus indicating their strength is in counter attack football. This is where the quick movement of their handball-heavy football can really hurt their opposition. North is also much more suscepitble than Carlton (nearly 2 goals worse) at being burnt via its own turnovers. Overall, Carlton has more of an even spread and will look to rely on its superior stoppage work, especially defensively, to outpoint the Roos.
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| In its wins, Carlton is superior around the stoppages |
Carlton Key Personnel
Wins
We know that Carlton is effective when swimming in a huge amount of possession and it’s more effective when doing so via foot. With that in mind I thought it would make sense to take a look at the Blues’ most destructive players in disposals and specifically kicks. I’m convinced this battle will start and end with who’s midfield has the bigger impact on the night, primarily because Carlton doesn’t actually have a forward line and North’s backline is vulnerable.
I’ve taken who I deem to be Carlton’s most important midfield representatives (I’m selfish) and compared their output in wins and losses to see exactly what goes wrong from the top down.
What you’ll notice in the following table is there isn’t an overwhelming disparity (especially in number of kicks) until you get to the sore thumb column labelled “disposal efficiency”. A 5 per cent discrepancy doesn’t exactly knock your socks off at face value, but considering the high number of disposals we’re dealing with, it’s incredibly accurate in terms of dictating a Carlton win or loss. What’s great about this particular stat is it proves it doesn’t really matter how much ball Carlton wins, but how they use it. This makes North’s goal a whole lot more evident.
Suffocating. Pressure.
If the Kangaroos can show up with the same level of intensity of the last three weeks, the Navy Blues’ path to victory becomes all the more tougher to navigate.
*Note: Players who were injured during a game were not included
| Player | Disposals | Kicks | Disposal Efficiency | Tackles | Clearances | Inside 50's | |||||||
| Andrew Carrazzo | 29.25 | 12.75 | 84.75% | 4.25 | 7.75 | 4 | |||||||
| Chris Judd | 27.5 | 12.33 | 68.33% | 3.66 | 7.33 | 5.33 | |||||||
| Marc Murphy | 31.2 | 15.4 | 65.8% | 4.2 | 7.6 | 5 | |||||||
| Heath Scotland | 26.28 | 12.85 | 78.14% | 3.71 | 2.57 | 4.14 | |||||||
| Kade Simpson | 26 | 15.16 | 80.33% | 4.33 | 2.33 | 3.66 | |||||||
| Totals | 28.05 | 13.69 | 75% | 4.03 | 5.52 | 4.43 |
Losses
What needs to be noted here is that Andrew Carrazzo and Marc Murphy misssed 5 games this year which resulted in losses. The drop in Carlton’s production is no doubt partly due to a lack of personnel, but the key indicators represented still drop across the board for the remaining players. What’s surprising is Kade Simpson’s output as the Blues’ most damaging player via foot. His performance individually directly impacts Carlton’s as a whole. In losses this year, Simpson experiences 6 fewer disposals at 11 per cent less efficiency. His absence this week looks to be a much bigger issue than anticipated.
It’s no secret Carlton has been savaged by injury, especially to key players. When the Blues have the above 5 players in their midfield, they are undefeated with a 3-0 record. Without Carrazzo they register a 3-5 win/loss record, although those 3 wins came against Melbourne, GWS and Fremantle. Minus Marc Murphy the record is 2-5, with those 2 wins against Melbourne and most recently Collingwood last Friday night. This really underlines Carlton’s dependence on having the correct personnel on the field. As for this Friday night, Carrazzo, Judd and Scotland will all be in the lineup, with Murphy a likely inclusion as well. One thing we do know is Simpson will not be there.
| Player | Disposals | Kicks | Disposal Efficiency | Tackles | Clearances | Inside 50's | |||||||
| Andrew Carrazzo | 29.5 | 13 | 75% | 7 | 5.5 | 5 | |||||||
| Chris Judd | 23.71 | 12.14 | 67.57% | 4.71 | 5.28 | 5 | |||||||
| Marc Murphy | 16 | 16 | 70.5% | 3.5 | 5 | 3.5 | |||||||
| Heath Scotland | 12.84 | 12.84 | 72.5% | 4.5 | 2.66 | 3.66 | |||||||
| Kade Simpson | 14.42 | 14.42 | 69% | 2.85 | 2 | 3.71 | |||||||
| Totals | 13.68 | 13.68 | 70% | 4.5 | 4.09 | 4.17 |
Who Will Win?
Flip a coin.
With Shaun Hampson and Jarrad Waite out injured and the Kangaroos three-headed lab monster in Petrie, Hansen and Tarrant finally coming to life, North will be the more settled side going forward. In recent weeks Carlton lacked confidence before the Magpies laid an egg last Friday night (reason number 4958 to hate Collingwood) and gave back its mojo. The four-points is going to come down to a horrible cliché; who can execute more effectively across all four quarters. Carlton suffer from slow starts whereas the Kangaroos struggle to finish. The Blues have only won 12 out of a possible 28 first and second quarters in season 2012. North has won 17 of its 28 first and second quarters, but has only managed to win 12 out of 28 third and fourth quarters. Pick your poison.
Carlton will be missing four of its best 22 but will more than likely have superstar Murphy returning. You can doubt Murphy’s fitness all you want but you cannot question his class and ability. With three 2-point defeats in Rounds 1, 8 and 15, the Kangaroos could easily be contending for a top 4 birth but instead are fighting what seems to be 57 other teams for the last couple of finals spots. Another close loss could very well see me spiral into a dark world of dressing gowns, empty pizza boxes and the 1999 Grand Final DVD on loop for 6 weeks. Hopefully the 2-point losses are just a “once every 7 weeks” kind of thing.
"Hearts to Hearts"
Go Roos.
My Tip: North Melbourne by 6-points.
The views and opinions of the author do not reflect those of the North Melbourne Football Club or the AFL
