40 points (10 wins, seven losses) 112.5 per cent
The Roos kissed any hopes of a top-four finish goodbye with their loss to Carlton, but they should still be able to lock up a finals berth given their relatively easy draw. Their biggest remaining tests appear to be against Geelong and Adelaide, but the Roos' struggles against lower ranked teams this year means their clashes with Greater Western Sydney, the Western Bulldogs and Melbourne are far from foregone conclusions.
The run home:
Rd 19: Geelong at Etihad Stadium
Rd 20: Greater Western Sydney at Startrack Oval
Rd 21: Western Bulldogs at Etihad Stadium
Rd 22: Adelaide at Blundstone Arena
Rd 23: Melbourne at Etihad Stadium
1. Sydney Swans
52 points (13 wins, four losses) 138.8 per cent
The Swans' 12-game winning streak might have ended against Hawthorn last Saturday night, but Fremantle's shock loss to St Kilda ensures they remain in pole position for a top-two finish. The Swans will start favourites against top-eight teams Essendon and Port Adelaide over the next two weeks, and should be too strong for St Kilda, Western Bulldogs and Richmond in the run home to the finals. Their cause is further aided by the fact Hawthorn, Geelong and Fremantle all face each other before the finals.
The run home:
Rd 19: Essendon at the SCG
Rd 20: Port Adelaide at Adelaide Oval
Rd 21: St Kilda at the SCG
Rd 22: Western Bulldogs at Etihad Stadium
Rd 23: Richmond at ANZ Stadium
2. Hawthorn
52 points (13 wins, four losses) 138 per cent
The Hawks' win over the Swans and Fremantle's loss to St Kilda has strengthened their hopes of a top-two finish. Hawthorn should comfortably account for the Western Bulldogs and Melbourne over the next two weeks, but its bid for a home qualifying final will likely be decided by the following clashes with Freo and Geelong. Collingwood has been the Hawks' whipping boy in recent times and should present few problems in round 23.
The run home:
Rd 19: Western Bulldogs at Aurora Stadium
Rd 20: Melbourne at the MCG
Rd 21: Fremantle at Patersons Stadium
Rd 22: Geelong at the MCG
Rd 23: Collingwood at the MCG
3. Geelong
52 points (13 wins, four losses) 112.1 per cent
The Cats' relatively low percentage effectively puts them a game behind the Sydney Swans and Hawthorn in the top-two race. Geelong has a tough run over the next month with games against North Melbourne, Fremantle, Carlton and Hawthorn, but should be too strong at home for the Brisbane Lions in round 23. Now in the box seat for a top-four finish given Port's poor recent form.
The run home:
Rd 19: North Melbourne at Etihad Stadium
Rd 20: Fremantle at Simonds Stadium
Rd 21: Carlton at Etihad Stadium
Rd 22: Hawthorn at the MCG
Rd 23: Brisbane Lions at Simonds Stadium
4. Fremantle
48 points (12 wins, five losses) 133.2 per cent
The Dockers' shock loss to St Kilda was a massive blow to their hopes of a top-two finish, putting them a game behind the Swans, Hawks and Cats. Freo is likely to rebound strongly against Carlton at home this Thursday night and should be too strong for the Brisbane Lions and Port Adelaide in the final two rounds of the season. The Dockers' clashes with Geelong (away) and Hawthorn (home) in rounds 20 and 21 should shape their season.
The run home:
Rd 19: Carlton at Patersons Stadium
Rd 20: Geelong at Simonds Stadium
Rd 21: Hawthorn at Patersons Stadium
Rd 22: Brisbane Lions at the Gabba
Rd 23: Port Adelaide at Patersons Stadium
5. Port Adelaide
48 points (12 wins, five losses) 132.4 per cent
The Power's three-point home victory against Melbourne was just their second win from the past six rounds and did nothing to suggest they have arrested their form slump. It's hard to see Port beating the Swans in round 20 or Freo in round 23, so it will probably have to win away clashes against Collingwood and Gold Coast and a home game against Carlton – and hope other results fall its way – to pinch a top-four spot.
The run home:
Rd 19: Collingwood at the MCG
Rd 20: Sydney Swans at Adelaide Oval
Rd 21: Gold Coast at Metricon Stadium
Rd 22: Carlton at Adelaide Oval
Rd 23: Fremantle at Patersons Stadium
7. Essendon
40 points (10 wins, seven losses) 109.8 per cent
The Bombers have won four of their past five matches and are now odds on to make the finals. Essendon only meets one other current top-eight team in the run home – the Sydney Swans this Friday night at the SCG – and should be too strong in consecutive home games against West Coast and Gold Coast. But traditional rivals Richmond and Carlton could be tougher to get over.
The run home:
Rd 19: Sydney Swans at the SCG
Rd 20: Richmond at the MCG
Rd 21: West Coast at Etihad Stadium
Rd 22: Gold Coast at Etihad Stadium
Rd 23: Carlton at the MCG
8. Adelaide
36 points (nine wins, eight losses) 109 per cent
Adelaide entered the top eight for the first time this season after its win against Collingwood last Sunday, and looks a strong chance to stay there. The Crows should start clear favourites in four of their final five games - against West Coast, the Lions, Richmond and St Kilda – and had a comfortable win over their other remaining opponent, North Melbourne, in round 13.
The run home:
Rd 19: West Coast at Adelaide Oval
Rd 20: Brisbane Lions at the Gabba
Rd 21: Richmond at Adelaide Oval
Rd 22: North Melbourne at Blundstone Oval
Rd 23: St Kilda at Adelaide Oval
9. Collingwood
36 points (nine wins, eight losses) 105 per cent
Collingwood slipped out of the eight for the first time since round five with its loss to Adelaide, having now lost five of its past six games. But Nathan Buckley's men can still right the Pies' ship, with their next four matches highly winnable – an out-of-form Port Adelaide, West Coast, Brisbane Lions and GWS. The Pies would hope to have booked their finals berth by the end of that stretch because they face bogey team Hawthorn in round 23.
The run home:
Rd 19: Port Adelaide at the MCG
Rd 20: West Coast at Patersons Stadium
Rd 21: Brisbane Lions at the MCG
Rd 22: Greater Western Sydney at Spotless Stadium
Rd 23: Hawthorn at the MCG
10. Gold Coast
36 points (nine wins, eight losses) 96.1 per cent
Gold Coast's season is spiralling out of control even quicker than Collingwood's, with the Suns' dismal loss to the Brisbane Lions their sixth in the past eight rounds. Their poor percentage also effectively puts them two games out of the eight and means the Suns might need to win four of their remaining five games to reach the finals. Three home games – against St Kilda, Port Adelaide and West Coast – helps their cause, but Carlton at Etihad Stadium will be a tricky assignment and Essendon at the same venue even tougher.
The run home:
Rd 19: St Kilda at Metricon Stadium
Rd 20: Carlton at Etihad Stadium
Rd 21: Port Adelaide at Metricon Stadium
Rd 22: Essendon at Etihad Stadium
Rd 23: West Coast at Metricon Stadium
11. West Coast
28 points (seven wins, 10 losses) 106.6 per cent
The Eagles' loss to Richmond put them three games out of the eight and all but ended their finals hopes. West Coast would now need to win all five of its remaining games and hope that other results fall its way. We expect the Eagles' fate will be sealed over the next three weeks, when they face tough away games against Adelaide and Essendon and a home game against Collingwood.
The run home:
Rd 19: Adelaide at Adelaide Oval
Rd 20: Collingwood at Patersons Stadium
Rd 21: Essendon at Etihad Stadium
Rd 22: Melbourne at Patersons Stadium
Rd 23: Gold Coast at Metricon Stadium
12. Richmond
28 points (seven wins, 10 losses) 101.3 per cent
The Tigers have given their season a late air of respectability with four straight wins but, like the Eagles, they could win all five of their remaining games and still not make the finals. And given Richmond meets Essendon and has away clashes with Adelaide and the Sydney Swans to come, Damien Hardwick's men can start making their September holiday plans now.
The run home:
Rd 19: Greater Western Sydney at the MCG
Rd 20: Essendon at the MCG
Rd 21: Adelaide at Adelaide Oval
Rd 22: St Kilda at the MCG
Rd 23: Sydney Swans at ANZ Stadium
