If you're looking for a smokey to back in the AFLW finals series, the North Melbourne Tasmanian Kangaroos might be the side for you.
This season has been all about the "big three" – Adelaide, Brisbane and Melbourne – but the Kangaroos may have quietly and steadily closed the gap.
More impressively, it's come as those in the tier around them last season – Fremantle and Collingwood – have dropped off to differing levels, while Geelong, Richmond and the Western Bulldogs have been nipping at their heels.
Why is North Melbourne a flag chance?
A sturdy backline
North Melbourne has continually tinkered with its defence, and this season has now settled on a fairly consistent line-up of Sarah Wright, Brooke Brown, Jas Ferguson, Nicole Bresnehan and Emma Kearney. Irishwoman Erika O'Shea has filled the shoes of Aileen Gilroy (Hawthorn), with Hannah Bowey stepping in as an injury replacement when required. Danielle Hardiman has been unable to break into the team after being a regular in seasons past. The Roos have the second-best percentage rate for rebound 50s, able to clear the ball out of danger 85.2 per cent of the time.
Mentally tougher
Over the past few years, the Roos have lived and died by their own swords. Inaccuracy in front of goal had been a major issue – and still flares at inopportune moments – but what has been most telling has been their ability to stand up under serious pressure this season. North Melbourne opened up a comfortable three-goal lead over top-eight side Collingwood in round nine, and the Pies came hard in the second half, but the Roos held firm where they would have previously wilted. They pushed the Lions and Dees right to the end, and somehow found a way to grimly hold on against Geelong in last week's elimination final.
They can now believe they can win playing ugly
North Melbourne has always been an attractive side to watch, with a heavy focus on a kick-mark game and a high weighting on excellent users of the footy when acquiring players. It meant when the pressure came, it was an awfully difficult game to execute and required extraordinary skill in order to cope under heat. The Roos have twice now defeated Geelong in torrid affairs – the first time running at 59.1 per cent disposal efficiency, their third-lowest for the season, and a rarity for a team that in past seasons has rarely dropped below 60.
They've made smart personnel changes
As mentioned above, O'Shea has done remarkably well to fill the departed Gilroy's role. In the past, the forward line was somewhat of a black hole for the Roos, receiving plenty of supply but struggling to make a winning impact on the scoreboard. Daisy Bateman (Western Bulldogs) and wing/half-forward Kaitlyn Ashmore (Hawthorn) were moved on, while Daria Bannister made the move to Essendon. In their place, Irishwoman Vikki Wall has almost been the recruit of the season in attack, while Tess Craven has played every game this season after one in her debut season earlier this year. Draftee Taylah Gatt has made an impact on the wing, while Amy Smith has improved in leaps and bounds, and Bella Eddey is thriving in attack after starting on the wing. Brown and Ferguson are having career-best seasons in defence, while Jenna Bruton has played more of an inside role in the absence of Ellie Gavalas (hamstring).
They've still got that blue-chip midfield
The Roos are known as the most successful expansion side (i.e. a team that came in after the inaugural eight in 2017), and it was all about that initial list build. While it's evolved a little in the past few years – Jasmine Garner is no longer a key forward but a permanent midfielder, Emma Kearney has gone to half-back – Ash Riddell is a two-time All-Australian mid, and Bruton was named in this year's All-Australian squad. And as the years progress, the drafting of Mia King with pick No.49 in the 2019 NAB AFLW Draft (as a protected Tasmanian signing) looks to have been an absolute steal.
