NMFC.com.au called upon Scott Barby to write this week’s Definitive Preview. The opinions of Scott are his own and do not reflect those of North Melbourne.

All statistics courtesy of Champion Data

Follow Scott on Twitter: @ScottyBarby

On the back of a gritty win against a desperate Geelong outfit, North Melbourne should be full of confidence in what promises to be a drama-filled match-up against reigning premier Hawthorn this Saturday night.

After falling to a rampant Port Adelaide side, the Hawks will be keen to atone for a loss and avoid falling to a 2-3 record. In an early season fixture front loaded with blockbuster match-ups, the Roos will be doing all they can to evade the same fate. The last three match-ups between the two sides have delivered an average margin of just 12 points and this week has all the makings of another classic encounter.

The midfield battle

It didn’t take long to bookmark the Hawks obvious weak points against the Power. The opening term of their round four clash saw Port Adelaide fly out of the blocks doing the majority of damage at stoppages. Absent clearance leader Robbie Gray and young gun Ollie Wines, the Power getting the upper hand at stoppages was the last thing anyone expected, but Chad Wingard stepped up with five first-quarter clearances and by the half-time siren Port had outscored Hawthorn at stoppages 55-3.

It’s highly unlikely we’ll be seeing a repeat occurrence of such a lopsided advantage at stoppages this week but it does underline an area of vulnerability for the Hawks. Historically, Hawthorn has found the going toughest when forced to defend and nothing puts a side on the back foot like winning first use.

In last season’s victory over Hawthorn, the Kangaroos experienced a similar domination at stoppages to what Port Adelaide produced. On raw output alone, any advantage doesn’t come across as overwhelming (contested possession +8, clearances +4) but from a scoring perspective the difference was substantial. North Melbourne would finish that encounter with 10 more midfield score launches than Hawthorn outscoring the Hawks by 45 points.

When you look deeper at Hawthorn’s recent win-loss output regarding midfield score launches, you’ll find it has quite a strong correlation with a result. Across their losses in 2014, Hawthorn experienced a -7.2 points different compared to +30 in wins; in 2015 that number sits at -16.5 in losses and +42.5 in wins.

What set the Kangaroos up so well last year was not only getting first hands to the footy but also their discipline to maintain possession. North Melbourne finished with 105 more disposals than Hawthorn, +46 effective kicks, +50 short kicks and +45 uncontested marks at a mark play on percentage of -12.7%.

The Kangaroos simply dictated play on their terms all evening holding Hawthorn to their second lowest total of effective short kicks, second fewest number of disposals and second lowest mark tally for the 2014 season. North Melbourne would beat Hawthorn at their own game courtesy of a huge work rate from their midfield.

First use will play a significant role in determining a winner this weekend as it does every week and North Melbourne couldn’t be more primed to assert an advantage given they possess the in-form ruckman of the competition in Todd Goldstein.

Together with skipper Andrew Swallow, Goldstein forms the competitions number one ruck-rover combination with the Goldstein-Cunnington combination proving the fourth most lucrative. Such dominance has resulted in the Kangaroos owning the league’s best centre bounce score percentage at 31.3%, outshining the Hawks who sit fifteenth at 19.1%.

If there was an area of concern to amend from that previous encounter it was the Hawks potent scoring ability in transition. When you’re controlling the tempo to the degree the Kangaroos were that night, the odd turnover is inevitable and against a premiership outfit like Hawthorn, you’re going to pay full price on the scoreboard. Hawthorn sourced a near perfect 6.1 (37) from their seven defensive score launches. Quelling the speed of such transition will be a heavy focus for North this Saturday night.

One aspect which might work in their favour is the Hawks failing to defend the corridor as well as they have in the past. We’re only four weeks into a new campaign but from last season to this season the defending champs have experienced the third biggest drop in corridor usage differential of any side. What’s more alarming is Hawthorn’s problems are on the defensive side as they’re currently giving up the centre corridor (most valuable part of the ground) at the third highest rate of any side after defending it at the fourth best rate last season.

This is of particular importance as the correlation between overall success and corridor usage in recent seasons has been very high for all sides and Hawthorn is no different. Last year, the Hawks experienced a drop in total corridor usage (centre + wide) of -3.33% during quarters lost compared to the season as a whole. This year that number is drastically similar sitting at -3.43%.

Poise forward of centre

With a depleted Hawthorn defence without its preferred key position posts, it’ll no doubt be tempting for North Melbourne to favour the high long ball inside 50 whenever possible. Having the likes of Ben Brown, Jarrad Waite and Drew Petrie makes the idea even more appealing but facing a Hawks unit so drilled and disciplined in defence makes any instinctive kick inside 50 to a contest risky.

Hawthorn has experienced 57 one-on-one contests in their defensive 50 this season which is the fewest of any side. They have a great ability to get extra numbers to a contest and take advantage of a loose man in defence. The personnel in the Hawks defence may look weakened on paper but in practice it still adheres to a sound system that is difficult to score against and deadly in transition, registering the highest inside 50 percentage from defensive 50 chains sourced from a turnover.

The old “just beat your individual opponent, the rest will take care of itself” mantra of generations past is long stale. You don’t win premierships without working as a cohesive unit defensively and Hawthorn is more than capable of turning the apparent weakness of a lack in key position size to a match winning advantage.

Last season, no outfit produced more points per game via intercepts in general play than Hawthorn. Often the biggest challenge for their opposition can be finding a safe avenue to goal.

What’s positive for North Melbourne is they’re a drilled side who knows the value of using the corridor to benefit forward entries. The Roos will play wide and utilise high leads from half forwards to shift a defence, open up space and move the ball back inside to the valuable areas. Many people still frown on the backwards kick, but to make a set defence react and move, you must swing the ball but more importantly maintain possession.

North is happy to switch the ball backwards or laterally until they find that weak link in the chain and an opening to move forward. You’ll see it time and time again at every North game, and once they do break the lines they move at scintillating speed with often devastating impact.

The Kangaroos will need to be smart and pick their spots. Against Adelaide in round one, poise was absent and North Melbourne couldn’t deal with the Crows’ heavy pressure. Round two against Brisbane delivered the necessary tune up and the movement of the ball to break the lines had become more and more fluent. Facing Geelong last week, North showed the necessary decision making to go coast to coast and get a defence on the back foot numerous times.

The damaging three

Picking out one or two commodities to focus on from a premiership list is selling this Hawthorn side short as few sides in history have come more complimentary and stressed a team first mentality. Like any side, there are always a few standouts and at the moment the Hawks midfield trio of Jordan Lewis, Luke Hodge and Isaac Smith is proving to be one of the most damaging in the competition.

Where these Hawthorn midfielders truly excel is in their ability to complement each other. All three left-footers add something different to the mix which makes reducing their impact even tougher. Jordan Lewis is the great accumulator who has a hand in everything, Hodge the best user who always seems to choose the valuable option and Smith provides the line-breaking outside dash and finishing ability.

It’s virtually impossible to restrict all three from getting their fair share of the footy but as Port Adelaide showed a high level of pressure can make a significant difference. The Lewis-Hodge-Smith trio combined for 39 touches to half-time last Saturday night but each player had their issues finding time and space. Lewis would commit three turnovers by foot, Hodge tallied just two effective kicks and Smith failed to find enough space to register a single running bounce.
You can live with one getting off the chain, two and you’re really up against it, but all three and you can kiss the four points goodbye.

Who will win and why?

This Saturday night promises to deliver one of the most intriguing spectacles of the home and away season. At the end of the evening, one of last season’s top-four finishers will find themselves nearly a quarter of the way through the season with a losing record against their name. In a season of such parity where every week delivers a genuine challenge, chasing wins at this early stage of the year can throw important areas such as man management into disarray.

Both sides have faced stiff opposition to date so they’re more than battle tested and aware of what to expect. Pressure should be sky high early and poise will need to be paramount. We’ve highlighted North Melbourne’s ability to embrace patience and the Hawks are no different having won a premiership last year on the back of kicking forward at the lowest rate of any side.

Given we’ve got the second and third ranked teams for offensive efficiency playing on a dry deck at Etihad, you can bookmark a high scoring encounter.

Hawthorn looks to be lacking that extra bit of defensive continuity leading in and that should be the catalyst for the Roos to press a big enough advantage and record back-to-back wins.

Tip: Kangaroos by 6 points