AFL Fantasy is back for another season, and the team at Footy Prophet will again be supplying NMFC.com.au with premium fantasy analysis and tips for the 2015 season.
When you’re building your AFL Fantasy side, you want to find the players with the most upside who will get regular games and don’t cost you an arm and a leg to field.
To find these Fantasy nuggets, it’s worthwhile looking at last year’s crop of debutants. Some will have had a great first year, some will have struggled, but all could be a chance to improve.
They could either earn you valuable Fantasy cash, or better yet lift to become one of your main keepers for the entire year.
Jack Macrae from the Western Bulldogs is a great example of a second year player who tore the competition apart. Anyone who kept him for the entire year would have been laughing.
The big question is whether the second-year player can perform, for the price you’ll have to pay. Some will be cheaper than this year’s top draft picks, while some will be awkwardly priced, thanks to their good debut year.
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North had a number of first-year players in 2014. Each made an impact in their own way, but none as pronounced or as noticeable as 22 year-old mature pickup Ben Brown.
When Brown made his debut for the Roos last year in Round 14, the tall from Tasmania with the copper-wire hair was hard to miss.
He quickly made his presence felt by opposition teams and excited with his hard running, strong body work and straight kicking.
His galloping running style and unorthodox goal kicking style was certainly entertaining, but Brown is as effective as he is unique. He managed 11 games in 2014, including all three of North Melbourne’s finals.
Despite starting slowly, he began asserting game-winning influence from Round 16 onwards, when he kicked two goals and collected 13 disposals against future premiers Hawthorn.
From that point he never looked back. He kicked 18 goals for the year, including four in North’s victory over Essendon in the first Elimination Final.
Fantasy wise, Brown also scored very well for a rookie big guy. He notched up over 80 AFL Fantasy Points on two occasions, while the rest of his season was pretty solid.
Many of Brown’s fantasy points came from his disposal rate, which again was very healthy for a guy 200cm tall. He grabbed ten or more possessions on five occasions, and he would have added to that number if he hadn’t slowed a little during the finals.
The question for 2015 is whether Brown can build on his excellent debut season and form part of your Fantasy team?
There are a number of factors that count against Brown, two weeks out from the first NAB Cup games.
The first is his current rehabilitation from knee surgery. While coach Brad Scott is saying Brown (among others) is on track, there’s no denying that he has missed a lot of the pre-season.
All things being equal, Brown could be underdone when he comes back online. Even if he does defy the odds and come back firing, there’s also the problem of opportunity.
Then, there’s the arrival of Jarrad Waite, which has potentially pushed Brown one spot down the pecking order of North Melbourne forwards.
There’s only so many spots in a side for big men and Waite has been deliberately brought to North for his goal-kicking firepower. That means Brown will need to be even more effective to hold his spot in North’s 22.
The final and most telling factor against the number 50 is his price in AFL Fantasy. $304,000 is an awkward amount of money to pay for a hulking forward who may not start the year fresh.
Brown could very well make a striking contribution to North’s 2015 campaign and the Kangaroos will be a far stronger side if he does.
But at this stage he looms as a better candidate for the draft game, AFL Fantasy Elite.
Brown looks a candidate for your last round selection, and if he’s able to build on his great 2014, he could prove to be great value.
Fantasy: Ben Brown
When you’re building your AFL Fantasy side, you want to find the players with the most upside.