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Topics Covered
1. Repeating the dose
2. A tale of two halves
3. Turnover, game over
4. Marathon men
5. Who will win and why?
History states this weekend’s result is all but a foregone conclusion. Just two teams have advanced from the Kangaroos’ position in the previous 28 attempts, and even those teams squeaked through by the barest of margins.
Hawthorn won its semi-final by three points in 2001 and Collingwood in extra-time against West Coast back in 2007. It ranks pretty high on the scale as far as challenges go to come from sixth in the modern day competition, but it’s an opportunity the club and players should welcome.
Season 2014 has been the year of conquering adversity for North Melbourne; winning that first final, snapping a ten year drought in Sydney, travelling to Perth and winning twice and defeating the then-ladder leaders in Hawthorn. This current outfit simply thrives with the underdog tag and proved it again last Saturday night, overcoming a five goal deficit with the highest of stakes on the line.
The opponents this week are the all-conquering Cats. This situation couldn’t be more familiar to Geelong, who played in an identical fixture just a year ago.
It’s been a season largely in transition for Geelong, looking to rejuvenate youth into its list. To its credit it did so whilst maintaining the contenders tag. The Cats have had the wood over the Kangaroos this year winning both matchups convincingly, and they start again as comfortable favourites. It’s a status this hungry North outfit won’t mind one bit.
Repeating the dose
When September rolls around the dependence upon work-rate at the coalface intensifies, and it was one of the catalysts for the Kangaroos’ comeback against Essendon. The Kangaroos came out with the right game plan and one which was skewed to starve the disposal-dependent Bombers of their strengths.
North utilised its kicking skills, amassing 23 more short kicks and 23 more uncontested marks in the first half. It resulted in a time in possession differential of-4 seconds. The issue of course was every other element effectively went out the window. Essendon dominated from stoppages as North’s forays forward slowed to a halt, becoming more and more predictable with each entry.
Essendon finished the half sourcing 20 more points from stoppages, based largely on the back of winning 9 more contested possessions and possessing a double digit advantage at clearances.
The core mantra remained the same in the second half. North maintained its work rate on the outside with a short kicks advantage (+23) and mirrored the first half uncontested marks output (+23).
What changed was the urgency in the middle. North finished the second half with a complete reversal in output at contested ball (+6), clearances (+12) and tackles (+3). The latter indicator underlined the Kangaroos’ ruthless pressure, winning the second half tackle count despite accumulating 24 more disposals.
The overwhelming majority of teams who play on at will and embrace a brand of ‘acid’ football wind up as their own worst enemy. The strings of quick fire overlapping handball at relentless pace is demanding on players and effectively Russian roulette as far turnovers are concerned, but against the Bombers it was a welcomed revelation for the Kangaroos forward line, thriving in the space it created.
In the first half North and Essendon played at a relatively routine pace playing on from marks at a rate of 29.4 per cent and 27.9 per cent respectively. The second half saw the Kangaroos remove any semblance of the leash, playing on from marks 50.8 per cent of occasions compared to the Bombers’ 10.8 per cent. To put it in perspective, the league average this season is 31.6 per cent.
Essendon repeatedly tried to slow the game down but couldn’t maintain possession long enough to squash any North momentum. Loosening the shackles hasn’t been synonymous with the Kangaroos second half dominance this season - they actually play on less in second halves. It was a risky strategic directive that wouldn’t see this team die wondering, and it worked.
| Differentials v Essendon | Short kicks | Kick/handball ratio | Disposals | Uncontested marks | Uncontested possessions | Contested possessions | Clearances |
| First half | +17 | +0.05 | -5 | +23 | +6 | -9 | -11 |
| Second half | +23 | +0.43 | +24 | +23 | +17 | +6 | +12 |
| Differentials v Essendon | Mark play on % | Tackles | Inside 50's | Goal scoring efficiency | Points from stoppages | Points from turnovers | Scores via corridor |
| First half | -1.5% | -10 | -2 | -14.2% | -20 | -6 | -4 |
| Second half | +40% | +3 | +8 | +12.2% | +12 | +27 | +9 |
That second half against Essendon would likely be unsustainable for four quarters, but it proved North can dominate in the areas that are pivotal to finals football success, and more importantly it proved it can adjust if necessary. Geelong is a side that does the wealth of its damage on the outside and in transition. The core goals of the game plan remain largely the same as last week, but the key is getting that balance right. Provided the matchups are on point and the centre square contingent isn’t asleep at the wheel in the first half, the result can be the same.
A tale of two halves
Like North, the gap between the Cats’ best and worst footy is considerable. The ace up Geelong’s sleeve is its rare ability to appear pedestrian performance wise and grind out close wins regardless.
No side has flirted with lady luck more often this season, with Geelong possessing a 6-0 record in games decided by a single digit margin. It’s the makings of a side clinging to victory as opposed to attaining a comprehensive win as forward supply dries up.
In their third and fourth quarters combined this season, the Cats record sits at 20 wins and 26 losses (two drawn) with a points differential of -110 in time-on of second halves alone. Richmond was the only other finals side with a negative points differential in second halves.
This is a Geelong outfit that does all their damage early and sets up its wins in the first half. Statistically there is no better second half unit than North, but chasing down the Cats and pipping them at the line has been a tough task in 2014; Hawthorn’s comeback in Round 22 the obvious outlier.
Allowing Geelong to get the jump in similar fashion to Essendon last week wouldn’t be a nail in the coffin for this side, but keeping pace on the scoreboard to half-time would set things up for North, knowing it is the better finishing side.
| Points differential | First quarter | Second quarter | Third quarter | Fourth quarter | Total |
| NMFC | +1.6 | -7 | +12.2 | +6.6 | +13.3 |
| Geelong | +6.8 | +7.5 | -4.8 | -0.4 | +9.1 |
| Record | First quarter | Second quarter | Third quarter | Fourth quarter | Total |
| NMFC | 12-10 | 7-15 | 17-6 | 16-7 | 52-38 |
| Geelong | 18-5 | 16-6 | 8-15 | 12-10 | 54-36 |
In second halves the Cats win less of the ball, lose their spread on the outside and as a result see opponents take advantage through the corridor. In Round 22, Geelong sourced seven goals via the corridor in the first half (+35 points), but was restricted to just two goals after the break (-38 points). In the qualifying final, Hawthorn pressed the same advantage, winning the corridor battle 76-59.
As far as barometers of success go, Geelong and output through the corridor go hand in hand. Unfortunately it’s been an area of hurt for the Kangaroos in previous meetings this season, and if the same efforts are repeated it will be season over.
In Round 10, Geelong outscored North Melbourne 46-15 via the corridor in the first half and 95-43 overall. Not much changed in Round 19, with the Cats possessing a 41-23 half-time advantage, eventually outscoring its opponent 87-65.
There’s plenty of work to be done in order to have the outcome reversed and it starts with suffocating the space in the middle. Working in the Kangaroos’ favour is the fact unlike Essendon, the Cats are not statistically damaging at stoppages, ranking dead last in the competition for clearances. If North can win first use and implement the same disposal dominant game plan utilised against the Bombers, Geelong’s influence will be restricted.
| 1H differentials v Geelong | Short kicks | Effective kicks | Turnover kicks | Disposals | Inside 50's | Marks inside 50 |
| Round 10 | -12 | -5 | +4 | -66 | -9 | -5 |
| Round 19 | -24 | -28 | +2 | -31 | -5 | -2 |
| 1H differentials v Geelong | Contested possessions | Clearances | Tackles | Goal scoring efficiency | Points via corridor |
| Round 10 | -20 | +7 | -5 | -9.4% | -31 |
| Round 19 | -2 | -3 | 0 | -15.1% | -18 |
Turnover, game over
It’s been common knowledge for years that Geelong is the transition king in football. Once you turn the footy over its likely coming back with some pain – especially when doing so in your own defensive half.
Against the Cats in 2014, North combined for 11 more turnovers than the opposition in their own defensive half and a points from turnovers differential of -69. It was too much of a deficit to come back from.
Hawthorn suffered a similar first half fate in its two clashes against the Cats in Round 22 and the Qualifying Final. It registered 18 more turnovers than Geelong in its own defensive half, and as a result had a -20 point from turnover differential.
The Hawks were extremely lucky in the first half last week, with Geelong failing to capitalise on their +6 inside 50’s via turnovers.
It shows there is hope of curbing the impact of turnovers against Geelong, although the better option is limiting them altogether. The good news for North is it has committed the fourth fewest turnovers per game in its defensive half since the Round 19 loss, 6 fewer per game than their average up until that point.
| Geelong | Turnovers 1H | Defensive half 1H | Points via turnovers 1H | Turnovers 2H | Defensive half 2H | Points via turnovers 2H |
| Round 10 v NMFC | -10 | -9 | -46 | +3 | +4 | -15 |
| Round 19 v NMFC | +1 | -2 | +23 | -2 | 0 | +10 |
| Round 22 v Hawthorn | -1 | -11 | +25 | +9 | +9 | -44 |
| QF v Hawthorn | +3 | -7 | -5 | +7 | +9 | -18 |
Marathon men
Arguably the key to North’s successful season has been the ability to press advantage or chase teams down in the second half. There’s no doubt it takes 22 contributors to do so, but if there’s one man whose work-rate stands out from the pack, it’s Sam Gibson. If the competition ever has a survival of the fittest, the midfielder will be front and centre at the final turn.
When the Kangaroos turn it on, gut running and finding space are two core elements of success. Hitting those risk free short link up targets and working for handball receives to break the lines are invaluable sources of breaking another teams back. The beauty of Gibson’s output is not only does he aid with mopping up as an outlet down back, he streams forward and nearly doubles his contributions to the forward line.
Gibson has totalled 23 more disposals, 25 more uncontested marks and 3 more handball receives than any other North player in second halves this season. He leads the Roos in fourth quarter disposals, uncontested marks and effective kicks per game, and sits second for handball receives.
Levi Greenwood helped his team back into the game last week and Gibson was right alongside him with 14 second half disposals. When it comes to knockout finals, you need your players to stand up late in games and Gibson is one you can bank on to do his job.
| Sam Gibson | Disposals | Uncontested marks | Effective kicks | Handball receives | Inside 50's | Rebound 50's |
| First half | 256 | 66 | 94 | 117 | 22 | 31 |
| Second half | 305 | 83 | 120 | 134 | 40 | 37 |
Gibson gets it done on the outside, but Andrew Swallow is the man who kick-starts proceedings on the inside.
Despite missing eight games, Swallow has already amassed the eighth-most clearances of any player after half-time this season. The skipper leads the club in fourth quarter contested possessions, clearances and tackles, and with Todd Goldstein will be key to winning first use against the Cats.
| Andrew Swallow | Disposals | Contested possessions | Clearances | Tackles | Inside 50's |
| First half | 165 | 83 | 48 | 46 | 32 |
| Second half | 191 | 106 | 67 | 51 | 34 |
Who will win and why?
North has the necessary game plan to defeat Geelong and we saw large patches of it against the Bombers. The issue for the Kangaroos is overcoming slow starts, limiting turnovers when navigating out of the back half and keeping the corridor congested when the Cats advance forward or counter-attack.
As we touched on earlier, the Kangaroos have improved dramatically in limiting turnovers in their defensive half. They also have runs on the board for limiting scores through the corridor, allowing the fifth fewest all season and third fewest in the last eight weeks.
In the second half against Essendon the Roos allowed just seven points via the corridor which was their best result in any half of football all season.
It proved they’re more than capable of restricting Geelong. In fact on the whole, as far as scoring sources are concerned the two teams couldn’t be more even.
| Score source differentials | Points from stoppages for | Points from stoppages against | Points from turnovers for | Points from turnovers against | Scores via corridor for | Scores via corridor against |
| NMFC | 33.4 | 30.1 | 54.4 | 44.9 | 409 | 303 |
| Geelong | 33 | 31.5 | 54.3 | 45.2 | 373 | 338 |
The second quarter headache is the sole blemish that has not been rectified and it must be sorted out this week as no team is more primed to take advantage than the Cats.
After getting out of the gate well in first quarters, North has been outscored by an average of 11.3 points in second terms across the last eight weeks. Meanwhile Geelong possesses the best differential, outscoring teams by 12.6 points in that span.
The Cats will be absent a go-to ruckman this week and it looms as a potential game changer. They have a contested possession differential of -12.5 and clearance differential of -8.5, with their points from stoppages differential is the worst of any side in losses this season.
Any path to victory for North starts with winning first use, and the rest will follow. It’s over to you Todd Goldstein, Andrew Swallow, Ben Cunnington and Levi Greenwood.
Tip: North Melbourne by 8 points
